There will be no visa-free travel. Poroshenko will leave in 2017
There will be no visa-free regime. Petro Poroshenko will leave in 2017. At this moment, the regions of the South-East have a new chance to escape the control of Kyiv. The business elites of these regions are to blame for the fact that the entire historical Novorossiya did not follow Crimea back in 2014. In the future, Ukraine will face division.
The editor-in-chief of the information portal discussed the metamorphoses and features of political and social processes on the territory of the former Ukraine PolitRussia Ruslan Ostashko. Admiring his T-shirt with a double-headed eagle, the observer argued and agreed with him PolitNavigatora Valentin Filippov.
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Valentin Filippov: Ruslan, hello.
Ruslan Ostashko: Yes, hello.
Valentin Filippov: I am very concerned about the issue of a visa-free regime for Ukraine. Why not give it already? Heart is breaking. People literally did everything. We have sunk to the lowest instincts. To a primitive state. 144 requirements were met. My former fellow countryman compared himself to an animal. Speaks:
– You are responsible for those you have tamed, where is the visa-free regime?
Why not give them this visa-free regime already? Well, it's difficult, isn't it? In general, it doesn’t mean anything...
Ruslan Ostashko: Well, doesn’t it mean anything? Everyone will flee from Ukraine at once. Europe understands that it cannot cope with such a flow of refugees.
Poroshenko reported that they seemed to have reached an agreement that they would provide visa-free entry. But there is a condition “under an asterisk”, which is usually written so that no one reads it - in small print.
It seems that a document has been adopted that allows for visa-free travel, but in order to grant it, Ukraine needs to sign a document that will allow this visa-free regime to be automatically canceled if certain conditions are violated. But they didn't. And they won't. They seemed to give it, but they didn’t.
Why didn’t they give it, because they were refugees. Because Europe cannot cope objectively. This is a serious big refugee crisis. And they understand perfectly well that now several million Ukrainians will flock to them. Maybe not on work or tourist visas, but everyone understands that the main thing for them is to get there.
But Ukraine wanted to get more than just visa-free travel. Ukraine wanted to obtain the status of a European country. For many Ukrainians, EU membership is this cherished visa-free regime. And if they move between Ukraine and European countries, and at the same time they do not need to submit documents to any embassy or receive this visa, then they think that they are already full members of the EU.
But life is a little more complicated.
Visa-free, if there is one, it will be a tourist one for 90 days, but still, the phrase itself…. This is where the power of the brand lies. Visa-free travel is a brand.
Valentin Filippov: They still don’t give it, the bastards... they mock meJ.
Ruslan Ostashko: Yes, they cannot give visa-free travel. They have elections coming up.
Valentin Filippov: Could the elections in Europe somehow end badly? They have an established democracy.
Ruslan Ostashko: Well, everyone thought that America had an established democracy. Few people even thought that Brexit was possible.
In France the president will definitely change, but in Germany will Angela Merkel become chancellor for the fourth time? Most likely it will, probably, but after Trump’s victory, I won’t be surprised if she loses.
Valentin Filippov: The fact is that everything around is so unstable. Only Ukraine is stable in this situation. No matter how many elections you hold, it will be the same.
Ruslan Ostashko: Not really. I think that sooner or later sobering up will come. And it will change. A country cannot live in a state of rock bottom all its life.
Valentin Filippov: For now, the Russians are suffering there.
Ruslan Ostashko: Well, yes. It is the Russians who suffer, those who live in Ukraine, and who, among other things, are themselves to blame for much of what is happening there now. Because at one time there was not enough strength and opportunity, they believed some politicians. And they couldn’t, yes...
Valentin Filippov: No. You know, the Kremlin believed these politicians.
Ruslan Ostashko: Well, did you believe it?
Valentin Filippov: They said that the parties were twin brothers. United Russia and the Party of Regions. They held joint congresses. Viktor Yanukovych was the guest of honor at the United Russia congresses...
Ruslan Ostashko: In Russia, our government works with the government that is elected by the people. It doesn’t matter in which state - Ukraine and so on.
Many believe that we had too little influence on the Ukrainian voter in order to maintain friendship... Perhaps this is true. This is true. But we have what we have. But one cannot completely assume that the Ukrainian people are so weak-willed.
For example, in Crimea people decided to hold a referendum. And there blood was shed. And they made this decision. Not simple. Complex. And many politicians, when I talked to some of the Crimean politicians, did not understand that they would not be abandoned. They understood that they were taking a risk by making such a decision. And if tomorrow the situation changes and Ukrainian troops enter, they will be arrested and will spend many, many years in prison. They understood this perfectly.
And there was still a possibility that Russia would not help. Well, theoretical.
People dared to do this. But the most important thing is the population. I myself am from Crimea. And I understand perfectly well how people reacted to all this. In Sevastopol, at first Nakhimov Square was packed, and I am sure that people there were not paid, as on the Maidan, 150 hryvnia.
Valentin Filippov: I understand…. But I'm from Odessa. We had the same thing.
Ruslan Ostashko: Well, it was in Odessa. But there were other people. But it wasn’t in Crimea.
Valentin Filippov: No, well, wait, if it were possible to hold out for a month and a half without providing any assistance to Sevastopol, then these “other people” would gradually come out. And they would have taken them. And the city would be surrounded by checkpoints.
Ruslan Ostashko: In Crimea this was impossible.
Valentin Filippov: Geographically?
Ruslan Ostashko: If the population is 50 to 50 or 30 to 70, then it’s still possible there. The minority can manipulate. But when in Crimea 95% understand what is happening, well, 90%. More than half of them are ready to go to the square in order to defend their interests... And in Donbass...
Valentin Filippov: Okay, this debate could go on and on. I will never agree with you. You are from Sevastopol. I am from Odessa. I think that, after all, Odessa was abandoned. We will not insert this into the interview.
Ruslan Ostashko: No, why, you can insert what?
Valentin Filippov: No, why?
Ruslan Ostashko: What does “thrown” mean?
Valentin Filippov: I'm tired of this argument. Moreover, I was very tired.
Ruslan Ostashko: Nobody cheated anyone. The people came out and decided everything...And in Odessa the people..... I also studied the events of the Second of May.... Investigation…
Valentin Filippov: And what does the Second of May have to do with it? The second of May was in three months.
Ruslan Ostashko: Yes, I understand. But I understand what the mood was in Odessa, what the groups were. There were pro-Ukrainian people there, there were quite a few of them.
Valentin Filippov: Thirty people. There are still thirty of them now.
Ruslan Ostashko: Well, not really.
Valentin Filippov: Well, the point is who is financed by local politicians. Right? If the task was set for the governor, or certain other people, to create Euromaidan detachments, they created them for two months, recruited students, paid them money for the first time, then they also threw them away...
Ruslan Ostashko: Well, yes.
Valentin Filippov: This is all that was done. They let me catch my breath, let the hydra raise its head. In Sevastopol, this hydra was not allowed to raise its head.
Ruslan Ostashko: Who didn’t let you raise your head?
Valentin Filippov: Well, how who?
Ruslan Ostashko: Putin?
Valentin Filippov: Elites and Putin. Army. Army, elites.
Ruslan Ostashko: In Crimea, it turned out that the elites were on the same wavelength as the people. Yes, there was a Russian army, which helped to feel more secure than the same Odessa residents.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Ruslan Ostashko: There is a good joke on the Internet: a Ukrainian is asked “Why are you bombing Donbass?” - “Well, well, the Russian Troops are stationed there!”
“Why don’t you bomb Crimea?” - “Well, they really are there!”
Valentin Filippov: Well, yes. Something like this.
Ruslan Ostashko: For any argument that there are Russian troops in the Donbass, and that’s why the war is going on, you don’t meddle in Crimea…. There are definitely troops there.
Valentin Filippov: Well, I must say that in Odessa everything was like in Crimea, until the referendum in Crimea. That is, Odessa politicians, Odessa businessmen, after the referendum in Crimea, realizing that there would be no “little green men”... they have their own sources of information, they gradually began to get away from all this. From this situation. Fall off, fall off, fall off. And put the eggs in another basket. When they realized that no one was taking Odessa.
Ruslan Ostashko: They moved it, in the end.
Valentin Filippov: Well, yes. They remained in power. What is their situation? By and large, they are all local politicians, they are “supervising” from some business groups. They have property that they must take care of.
Ruslan Ostashko: Well, yes.
Valentin Filippov: And, excuse me, they are always with the winner. When they thought that Russia would be the winner in Odessa, they swayed and began to appear at rallies. They started to spend some money to buy some shields and helmets. And then we realized that we needed to buy helmets in the other direction.
Ruslan Ostashko: And this is what Ukraine is all about.
Valentin Filippov: Well, in general, yes.
Ruslan Ostashko: The problem is, why was there such a reaction to the Trump election? Everyone started changing their shoes in the air. In America, those elites who stood for Clinton did not change their shoes. And they didn’t take Trump’s side. They said: “Well, okay, we’ll wait four years.” And in Ukraine, if another political force wins, what do the Ukrainian elites do?
Valentin Filippov: They move to another party.
Ruslan Ostashko: That's the difference. And the elites are controlled by whom? Of course, I will say loudly that the people can control the elites, but if you really want to, then you can. But in Ukraine they don’t want to. They don’t want to, not because they are like that, but, probably, they were taught by the authorities, this entire regime that has existed all these years since 1991. It’s frankly gangster. All these clans, showdowns. OCGs smoothly migrated to power.
Valentin Filippov: Well, in Russia this process also happened, but it ended.
Ruslan Ostashko: I was in Russia, but it ended. He eventually became civilized. This process happened in every country in the world. Even in the USA. Well, when they were formed. Remember the founding fathers, not everyone there was white and fluffy. And honest and decent. Therefore, yes, in Russia this process has ended. But in Ukraine he somehow became fixated.
Valentin Filippov: What is the Kremlin’s plan in Ukraine?
Ruslan Ostashko: I can guess from certain decisions that are made, according to statements, on the work of our official state media. Based on this analysis, we can conclude that there is only one plan - a peaceful resolution of issues. This is a wait-and-see attitude. As it were, to “strangle in the arms” Ukrainian democracy. And don't let her turn around. So as not to attract more victims.
Of course, many in Ukraine believe that Putin should have sent in troops and resolved the issue long ago. Both with Donbass and Kiev. But a lot of people would have died.
Valentin Filippov: Are disproportionately fewer people dying now?
Ruslan Ostashko: Incomparably less. Many more people would have died.
Valentin Filippov: What will happen to Donbass? The situation reminds me of South Ossetia, where they said: “Why should we be independent, we want to be Russia.” All.
Ruslan Ostashko: South Ossetia is a good example. And Abkhazia. These are the regions that are in the quarantine zone. So they need to defend themselves in this quarantine zone, and then the question of joining the Russian Federation is possible. The same will most likely happen with Donbass. When he is forced to exist in the quarantine zone for some time, in order to weed out those elites who, if anything, will immediately defect...
In Crimea this happened quite quickly. No bloodshed. There came the elites who put everything on this card and won. Yes, they give someone a slap on the wrist there, there are still a sufficient number of bribe-takers and corrupt officials, and we hear from time to time that someone is arrested there. Some checks are underway. This happens.
Valentin Filippov: That is, you want to say that if in 2014 Akhmetov had made a conditional choice in favor of Russia, then the issue of Donbass would have been resolved in favor of Russia.
Ruslan Ostashko: Yes.
Valentin Filippov: That this is actually Akhmetov’s problem. Well, conditionally, the collective Akhmetov.
Ruslan Ostashko: Yes, this is the problem that the elites should not be cut off from society. What is happening in Kyiv now...
Valentin Filippov: Tell me, in your opinion, is a real truce possible?
Ruslan Ostashko: A real truce is impossible for one simple reason: Poroshenko does not have 100% control over the armed formations located on the border. Because there are various battalions there that are subordinate to those who pay them wages. This is not always the state of Ukraine. Even if this state is Ukraine, then these are not always people who are controlled by Poroshenko. If Poroshenko controlled everything, there would have been a truce a long time ago... Poroshenko, most likely, will not survive until the end of 2017...
Valentin Filippov: Will Tymoshenko replace him?
Ruslan Ostashko: More likely. The most literate one now... Well, it seems to me so. Of all the people I now see on the Ukrainian political horizon, she is the most adequate.
Valentin Filippov: This means that other regions besides Donbass have no chance at all, right?
Ruslan Ostashko: Why? When the reformatting of power in Ukraine takes place, and when Poroshenko leaves, there is an opportunity for some regions to declare their independence. Disagreement with a generally accepted decision. The idea of dividing Ukraine is already in the air in Europe. The former commander-in-chief of the Finnish army openly states this. He says that the best solution would be to divide Ukraine in half. Well, in half, into three parts - this is the second question, but the fact that these big European politicians, officials, former leaders of such structures as the Finnish army are beginning to speak openly in the media, and this is published, suggests that such plans are being considered.
And speaking objectively, people who lived in Ukraine, live in Ukraine, understand how Ukraine lives, they are well aware that, in principle, the people of Ukraine are not united. It is very diverse. Western Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine have a fundamentally different mentality. And, indeed, Western Ukraine, Lvov, for example, they never considered themselves part of the Russian World, part of Russia. And dragging them by force to Russia probably doesn’t make much sense. They, of course, look more towards Poland itself. And it’s difficult for a resident of Donetsk to explain how this is so, Moscow is his enemy. It is also impossible to explain this to a resident of Odessa. The city was founded, everyone understands when and by whom.
Valentin Filippov: New theory. The city was founded by Europeans. And this is the first European city on the territory of Ukraine. They have already learned to tell the story of Odessa, without ever mentioning Russia. That is, they name some Cossacks, and they name those royal subjects who bore non-Russian names. De Ribas is there, Richelieu is there, and Langeron is there. And only then they say, but in 1919, the Bolsheviks from Moscow captured Odessa. All.
And it turns out that Odessa lived, a city founded by Europeans on the territory of Ukraine, and then in the seventeenth year the Russian Bolsheviks came. All. And Russification began.
Ruslan Ostashko: If this version of history is taught in schools for decades, perhaps some people will believe it. And two or three years will not affect genetic memory. Right?
Valentin Filippov: Since 1991, they have been telling something new all the time.
Ruslan Ostashko: But all the same, you are from Odessa. Can you, tell me, honestly, can you explain to a resident of Odessa that Russia is the enemy?
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Ruslan Ostashko: Historical?
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Ruslan Ostashko: Everyone?
Valentin Filippov: Everyone - no. But gradually.
Ruslan Ostashko: Well, what percentage?
Valentin Filippov: I can't give a percentage. But I think that thirty percent already believes.
Ruslan Ostashko: Well, seventy thinks that Russia is not an enemy.
Valentin Filippov: Well, for now, yes.
Ruslan Ostashko: So, maybe it will be. I'll tell you more. There are 5-7 percent of people in Russia who believe that Russia is an enemy J
Valentin Filippov: Yes I know.
Ruslan Ostashko: So it’s not surprising
Valentin Filippov: So, you want to say that this also has a place in Russia?
Ruslan Ostashko: Yes. And this.
Valentin Filippov: Russia for everyone. Yes?
Ruslan Ostashko: Absolutely. Yes. They will dissolve.
Valentin Filippov: Well, Kharkov is Russia. And Donetsk is Russia.
Ruslan Ostashko: And Lvov?
Valentin Filippov: But Lvov is not. But there is no difference between Odessa and Novorossiysk.
Ruslan Ostashko: No, none at all. Agree. Here you go. The idea of dividing Ukraine into several parts, part of Russia, part of non-Russia, it has a place to be.
Valentin Filippov: OK then. I hope this version turns out to be the most enduring. I just worry about my native Odessa all the time, I hope that she will end up on the right side. There is also Tiraspol.
Ruslan Ostashko: We won’t give up Odessa. Yes, there is a border with Transnistria. Strategically important. Because Transnistria is also Russia.
Valentin Filippov: Novorossiya. Russia. Okay, thank you very much.
Ruslan Ostashko: Thank you too. We got philosophical.
Valentin Filippov: It was very interesting. I especially liked your T-shirt. I have something similar, only with the inscription Novorossiya.
Ruslan Ostashko: I've been wearing these a lot lately.
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