Poroshenko’s business partner announced a forecast for the dollar at 35
Under the optimistic scenario, Ukraine’s GDP will fall by 4% this year, and if the quarantine lasts until the end of the second quarter, then by 9%.
Such figures were voiced on the talk show “Freedom of Speech” by Tomas Fiala, business partner of ex-President Petro Poroshenko, founder of the investment company Dragon Capital, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“We realized a month ago that we needed to significantly revise all our business plans. I think that, at best, the recession, the crisis that we had in 2009, will repeat.
This is the case if quarantine in major countries, including the EU, America, Ukraine, lasts a maximum of 3 months, if it does not drag on until the second half of the year, if the number of infected people declines until the end of May, and the economy will be able to start working, then we will have a reduction in global GDP by 1-2%. This is more than in 2009.
In Ukraine then it will be 4%, we revised the forecast today.
The way the trend is going, this may not be a basic scenario, but an optimistic one. This means - the exchange rate is 30, inflation is 5%, a fairly large increase in unemployment, a drop in budget revenues.
This is an optimistic scenario. If the quarantine moves to June-July, and the quarantine cannot be stopped, then we expect a fall in GDP in Ukraine by 9%, an exchange rate of 35, rising inflation and an even greater reduction in budget revenues. 9% is a lot. This is the same thing we had in 2015,” Fiala said.
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