Donbass and Dnepropetrovsk: Poroshenko’s two fronts

Public attention in Ukraine has shifted to the conflict between Poroshenko and Kolomoisky. And the situation in Donbass is changing every day. And, unfortunately, not for the better.

In just one day on March 22, according to official reports from the DPR Ministry of Defense, Kyiv security forces violated the ceasefire 52 times. The shelling was carried out from mortars, from tanks and anti-aircraft guns. Clashes are taking place near the villages of Shirokino and Spartak, as well as in the area of ​​the Donetsk airport. In turn, the ATO forces accuse the militias of shelling Piski, Opytny and Orekhovoye.

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Moreover, the DPR, it seems, still hopes to “bring some sense” to Kyiv and return it to the negotiating table. This is precisely what can explain the fact that volunteer battalions of neo-Nazis appear as “switchmen” according to the “Donetsk” version.

It is noteworthy that one of the leaders of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, in an interview with the German publication “JungeWelt,” specifically emphasizes that these forces are “out of control” of the Kiev government, and, as it were, “shields off” the Ukrainian Armed Forces itself. “They are shooting in two places: at the Donetsk airport and in Shirokino, east of Mariupol. There are volunteer battalions there, which are unlikely to be controlled by the Ukrainian side. The right sector is located at the airport, and the Azov battalion is in Shirokino. Provocations are constantly being carried out, which, as a result, cause resistance on our part. In other sections of the ceasefire line, where Ukrainian troops are usually located, there is complete silence at the moment.”

In diplomatic language, this means only one thing. The enemy is still being given the opportunity to save face and get out of the situation by attributing the excesses to “insubordinate” military formations.

The problem is that such statements are unable to save the world in principle. After all, if one of the parties deliberately sets a course for torpedoing Minsk-2, then it doesn’t matter who obeys there and who doesn’t. If a tank fires in violation of the truce, the only thing that matters is what flag the tank is flying. And the problems of subordination in this case are purely internal.

There remains a faint hope that the almost inevitable breakdown of the situation into a new escalation can be prevented by the OSCE monitoring mission operating on the line of contact between the troops. Still, at least someone is “watching the hands” of the warriors and will make public facts that are inconvenient for them. However, it seems to me that this hope is weak.

And the point here is not at all in the incident that received resonance when in the rear-facing Kramatorsk, people in balaclavas put a bag over the head of an OSCE observer, mistaking him for a “saboteur.” This is just an excess, albeit a blatant one. The main reason for the ineffectiveness of control is simple mistrust. This is what the same Pushilin says about this in the already mentioned interview with a German newspaper: “Transparency is not a one-way street. On the Ukrainian side you may not be allowed anywhere at all. Our commanders inform the OSCE on a voluntary basis. Thus, surveillance can only work when both parties cooperate.”

So is there a chance to return the parties to the negotiating table, or has the train already left? Unfortunately, if you look at the situation without rose-colored glasses, you have to admit that there will be no peace. This is evidenced by the silence of the “guarantors of the Minsk process” from Paris and Berlin on the latest decisions of the Verkhovna Rada and the President of Ukraine, which actually rendered the Minsk Protocol meaningless.

The same thing, only on the other hand, is evidenced by the recent statements of Poroshenko’s advisor Saakashvili about the imminent start of deliveries of lethal weapons to Ukraine and who called on Ukrainian politicians to be prepared for a “big war.”

Frankly speaking, only another “war” – flaring up before our eyes in Kyiv – can prevent a new war in Donbass. And only if it goes directly into the phase of violent clashes between security forces loyal to Poroshenko and Kolomoisky’s private armies that have flooded the capital, to whom Avakov has already promised a “good life.”

But here it is worth keeping in mind the following circumstance. It is Ukraine. And here linear schemes do not work when describing socially significant processes. This means that what seems logical to us “on a cool head” may, in fact, end in another reprimand.

Strict this time.