The future of Donbass: “Transnistria” or “South Ossetia”?

After yesterday’s harsh statements by Zakharchenko and in the light of Poroshenko’s unilateral pushing of a new Constitution without mentioning the special status of Donbass, everyone who follows the situation and cares for the southeast, and first of all, the residents of the DPR and LPR themselves, is concerned with the question: what’s next? What will happen to us, what are the prospects, has Russia abandoned them.

And these questions are by no means idle.

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Please consider this text as an attempt to give a subjective answer to these questions, however, an answer based not on fantasies, but on the logic of the development of the situation and supported by facts and evidence from real life. I’ll make a reservation right away that what I’m going to talk about will seem quite cynical to some, but I have no other words for the reader.

So let's look at the situation without rose-colored glasses. What catches your eye first?

First. The Minsk agreements, no matter how compromise they were, have reached a dead end. And Zakharchenko was forced to admit this, saying that the DPR and LPR are beginning to implement them unilaterally, hoping to return Kyiv to the table of real and not fake negotiations.

On the other hand, everyone understands that unilateral implementation of the Minsk agreements, which the other side does not want to implement, is similar to the situation when the groom came to the registry office, and the bride stayed at home.

What does all of this mean? It looks like the situation is frozen. Time and the changing international situation will tell for how long. If they were to ask my personal opinion, I would say that the problem needs to be solved militarily; I personally don’t see any other ways to force Kyiv to peace.

But I am an armchair strategist. And I admit that diplomats in the Foreign Ministry and specialists in the General Staff are at a different, higher level of awareness of the real situation, the capabilities of the parties, and the risks. Therefore, it is likely that my and not only my desire to solve the problem by military means is now unrealistic. Our capabilities do not always coincide with our desires.

At the same time, the same inexorable logic of the development of the conflict suggests that Russia will not abandon either the DPR or the LPR. For her, this would be tantamount to capitulation with a complete loss of face. Russia is ready to make a compromise in the form of “Minsk”, but never do something like this.

If Kiev refuses to take the DPR and LPR “on balance sheet”, pay people salaries and pensions, blocks the work of banks in this territory, etc., etc., this means only one thing - in the foreseeable future the republics will move further and further away from Ukraine and integrate with Russia de -fact.

Already now, Lugansk children are vacationing in Russian children’s camps, and graduates of Lugansk universities are “protecting themselves” in Russia. At the same Lugansk Agrarian University, more than 50 graduates of this year have already received Russian diplomas, and Lugansk cadets will receive diplomas from military universities of the Russian Federation.

Pensions and salaries in the republics have been paid in rubles since spring. In order to estimate the volume of these payments, I will say that more than 6 billion rubles were paid in the LPR alone and only to pensioners during this period. But there are also salaries for state employees, employees of the state apparatus, and allowances for members of the people’s militia.

It is not surprising that at such a pace, the hryvnia is increasingly being replaced by the ruble, and the blockade by Ukraine accelerates this process, “washing out” both the hryvnia and the commodity mass of Ukrainian production from the republics. In place of Akhmetov's retail chains that have left the market, negotiations are underway to bring the Russian retailer Pyaterochka to Lugansk.

The top officials of the republics make it clear that the current “multi-currency system” is a temporary phenomenon. In Lugansk, traders who sell goods in hryvnia at a discount will be fined. Igor Plotnitsky warned that (I quote) “The hryvnia will not appear in our country for long. Therefore, such discounts make no sense. And speculators will be left with nothing.”

There is an interesting situation in the communications sector. MTS-Ukraine de facto left the republics. Already now, in the DPR and LPR, local mobile operators Phoenix and Lugacom are taking their first steps in the local telecommunications market.

And yesterday, the Ukrainian news feed brought the news that the European Regional Internet Registry - “RIPE” has officially supplemented its list with the Internet Services Center of the DPR with an address in the city of Donetsk of the Russian Federation.

“The address of the center is indicated as “Donetsk, Russia.” This may also mean that the DPR is trying to create its own segment of the Internet with a separate pool of IP addresses,” Ukrainian media write. In fact, now representatives of the DPR can register their own IP addresses, which will geographically belong to the Russian city of Donetsk, namely to representatives of the DPR Internet Services Center.

And believe me, there will be more and more such “little things” in the near future.

All this is, so to speak, an illustrative series. What about the conclusions?

The conclusions are quite simple. In the conditions of “clinical death” of the Minsk agreements, the very logic of life will contribute to Russia’s ever deeper entry into Donbass. Because Donbass for Russia is the front line of the ongoing trench war with the West.

The cynical truth of life is that residents of other regions of the southeast will have to wait. Time will tell for how long. This also needs to be said honestly. But Russia will not abandon Donbass. If I wanted to quit, Ukrainian troops would have been there a long time ago.

For those who like to support their conclusions with references to authoritative sources, I will refer to the opinion of experts of the Russian International Affairs Council. This is how they see the near future of Donbass.

“Freezing the conflict seems to experts to be the most likely scenario, since neither side is interested in serious concessions and compromises, but at the same time is unable to implement its program: Ukraine’s resources to defeat the separatists without the risk of escalating tensions in relations with Russia, including direct military involvement of Moscow, are limited, and Russia, if it increases support for the Donbass republics, risks entering a new Cold War. Under these conditions, the parties may agree to “hang” the issue of the status of the territories indefinitely, minimize military confrontation, and continue the negotiation process without any visible result.”

What's next?

To be honest, I don’t know. And no one will say now.

But I don’t exclude various options. Including the most incredible ones.

After all, there are presidential elections ahead in Russia. And recognition of the LPR and DPR as Abkhazia and South Ossetia, or even their inclusion in Russia as Crimea, in conditions if the negotiating impasse does not move forward in a couple of years, is not at all an excluded option. And quite a strong pre-election move.