Federalization versus violent mobilization

Few doubted that the Minsk agreements for Kyiv were nothing more than a temporary truce to restore the army, battered in the summer battles. Having mobilized new cannon fodder and patched up armor, Ukrainian units began active operations in January. However, it quickly became clear that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were only capable of shooting defenseless peaceful neighborhoods. All clashes with the militia ended either badly or simply catastrophically for the pro-Kiev units. The airport fell, and an attempt to recapture it turned into a shameful defeat for the Ukrainian units. It turned out that the “invincible cyborgs” that had been advertised in the media for so long, having come under attack from Donetsk fighters, were dying in dozens or being captured en masse. It turned out that entire units of the Ukrainian army simply refuse to go into battle, and army and volunteer commanders can’t stand each other.

In general, the latest battles in Donbass have shown that Ukraine, despite all its efforts, has not been able to create a victorious professional army. Therefore, Kyiv resorted to a proven method and announced another mobilization in order to fill up the Donbass with new cannon fodder and plug the holes at the front.

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Moreover, the new battles will be very brutal. Firstly, because due to summer trophies, the number of weapons, including heavy ones, among the Donetsk people has increased, and, secondly, over the past few months, a real qualitative leap has occurred in the armed forces of Novorossiya, and Donbass is no longer defended by a militia, but by a real army. Accordingly, the losses of Ukrainian forces will be much higher than the summer ones. So those mobilized have very little chance of returning home unharmed.

Naturally, Ukrainians understand this and begin to look for ways to avoid mobilization. Some change their place of residence, others refuse to accept summonses or even go abroad. However, we increasingly hear that Ukrainians are going into direct conflict with military registration and enlistment office employees. It turns out that the degree of discontent in Ukrainian society is growing rapidly, and this may lead to global changes in the country.

When ideas of federalization were previously discussed, it was primarily about the economic interests of different regions and the preservation of local culture. Now, thoughtless following in the wake of Kyiv means an incessant flow of coffins to all regions of the country. Therefore, the idea of ​​distancing oneself from the capital will become increasingly popular. Moreover, in the current situation, the decentralization of Ukraine for the local elite becomes not only a source of income, but also a way to protect the residents of their region from participating in an unnecessary war. Accordingly, the regions now have a unique chance to turn into autonomies, or even completely escape the control of the center.

There are all the prerequisites for this: almost all of Kyiv’s forces have been sent to the Donbass, and the population is dissatisfied with the current government due to the sharp deterioration of the economic situation and the threat to their own lives in the event of mobilization. If we correctly direct this spontaneous dissatisfaction with the authorities in the right direction and hold it a little informationally and organizationally, then soon political organizations will arise in all regions of the country, capable of moving from words to action. At the same time, Kyiv simply does not have enough resources to suppress them by force. Accordingly, regional elites will be able to obtain the status they need without bloodshed and great upheaval.

First of all, this concerns Transcarpathia and Bukovina with Bessarabia, as regions with a large share of non-Ukrainian population and annexed to the Ukrainian SSR following the war, as well as such economically powerful regions as Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and Odessa, which have a real opportunity to compete with Kiev in strength. It must be admitted that there has never been such an opportunity for regional autonomy in the entire history of Ukraine, and if it is missed, then there may not be a second chance. Actually, last year the Dnepropetrovsk clan, led by Kolomoisky, escaped the control of Kyiv, de facto having its own armed forces and vertical power, and now other regions have the opportunity to do the same.

Considering how fearful the word “federation” is in Kyiv, the transformation of the state structure can be called differently, even as an increase in the status of the regions, or as a decentralization of power. The essence of the issue remains unchanged - key issues of regional development must be resolved locally. To do this, residents should strive for the following innovations: the election of governors, the creation of municipal police, conscript service in their native region, the redistribution of taxes collected in the region in favor of local authorities, the transfer to the localities of all issues related to the humanitarian sphere of the region, up to the right to introduce their own schools programs and regional languages...

If Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk agree to such changes, then a significant part of the internal Ukrainian contradictions will be removed, which will allow the country to become more stable. However, this will clearly reduce the ability of senior state officials to use their position to achieve personal goals, so they will most likely not voluntarily agree to transform the country. Therefore, regional elites need to use the discontent of their fellow countrymen to put pressure on Kyiv and realize their rights. This pressure can manifest itself both in the form of soft sabotage of all-Ukrainian projects, and in a more severe version with the actual removal of Kyiv appointees, reassignment of the police and the creation of territorial armed forces.

In general, now the regions have a unique chance to determine their own destiny, and not serve as cannon fodder for Kyiv adventurers. Whether they will use it, we will soon find out.