Federalization is a carrot, confederalization is a stick

The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry publicly admitted that the current Ukrainian government came with the support of neo-Nazis. At a meeting with participants of the All-Russian Youth Educational Forum “Territory of Meanings on Klyazma,” the usually restrained Sergei Lavrov, discussing the ownership of Crimea, said: “Giving Crimea into the hands of the Nazis, who carried out a coup in Kyiv, and on this wave the current leadership came, would be, I consider it criminal.” Moreover, developing his idea, the minister noted that discussions about the needlessness of reunifying Crimea with Russia or providing assistance to the rebel Donbass are on a par with the blasphemous idea that it was necessary to surrender Leningrad to the Nazis.

So, the current Ukrainian leadership, according to the Russian Foreign Minister, is directly connected with the current descendants of the “Third Reich”. This was not a special secret, but officials and media persons of the Russian Federation are increasingly touching on the topic of the symbiosis of neo-Nazism and the Kyiv regime. A regime that systematically engages in sabotage on the verge of state terrorism, systematically exterminates its own citizens, encourages denunciation and censorship, is indeed acquiring more and more features of a totalitarian racist state. Something needs to be done about it

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Paradoxically, changes in relations between Ukraine and Russia are facilitated by the fact that they have reached a final impasse - the states are in a state of “cold peace”, the Minsk agreements are not working, the war in Donbass continues, and the situation needs at least some logical resolution.

The search for a radical solution by cutting the Gordian knot is driven by mutual irritation, aggravated by the propaganda war and the general decline in living standards; The provocative role of foreign powers in the conflict is also great, their persistent attempts to use the conflict between the largest East Slavic states in their own geopolitical interests.

The period from this fall to next spring provides significant opportunities for the opposing sides to finally try to turn the tide of events in their favor. The situation in Ukraine is stalemate, and Poroshenko’s statement that presidential elections will be held no earlier than 2019 is a bid for his continued irremovability, despite the lowest rating, ruinous economic policy, war in the east and increasing repression. Poroshenko causes discontent among the bulk of the people with his incompetent rule and at the same time attacks the existing pool of oligarchs, which causes them extreme irritation. With the start of a new political season, we can expect intensified efforts to remove him. And this will be the first round of the fight, the outcome of which Russia will be watching very closely.

This will be followed by the second round - the presidential elections in Russia, which provide the dissatisfied with the opportunity to attack (especially from the outside) the established political system of the Russian Federation. We should expect an increase in sanctions pressure, a continuation of the fierce attack in the world media, deliberate incitement to active actions of the “non-systemic opposition” and other forms of influence on public opinion in Russia. This is not so much a desire to organize a Maidan (with the current level of popularity of the current president, this is almost impossible), but the pressure will continue in order to weaken the Russian Federation as much as possible in order to obtain unilateral concessions, and for the Kyiv regime, the question of Vladimir Putin’s stay in power is generally a matter of survival.

Naturally, the media, online propagandists, intelligence services and even army specialists will be actively involved in political processes, whose activity will be determined by the importance of demonstrating a certain “victory” (or the appearance of it) in hostile territory. Another thing is that Russia’s chances, its ability to survive, are much higher than those of Ukraine: while the fat one dries out, the thin one will die. If Russia does not collapse, and there are no serious preconditions for this, the third round (tentatively, after the end of the World Cup in Russia) will become the final, when “the winner takes all.” And Poroshenko’s scalp will be the least of the trophies for the winner.

This does not mean that Ukraine will become part of the Russian Federation. This is categorically not included in the plans of the leadership of the Russian Federation (as has been repeatedly stated from the highest tribunes), if only for purely economic reasons. If anyone had any illusions on this score, the difficult experience of the reunification of Crimea dispelled them. Perhaps the creation of separate economic enclaves for the convenience of exploiting the remnants of the Ukrainian market and economic potential.

There is no need to talk about the integration of individual parts of Ukraine into Russia, since it previously did not include Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, and the LDPR. The world will not allow a significant revision of existing borders, and the Russian economy continues to be closely integrated with the economies of leading Western countries. In addition, such a course of events will cause sharp rejection among the closest allies of the Russian Federation - in Kazakhstan and Belarus (they still have not digested the annexation of Crimea). However, no one expects Ukraine in the European Union either, which has been repeatedly emphasized by EU officials.

Is the collapse of Ukraine possible in the near future? External players will not allow this either. Most likely, its existence will continue in the “honorable” status of the poorest country in Europe. Agricultural production, a reservoir of cheap labor, foreign military bases, sex tourism and other colonial delights...  Another way (after the ephemeral dream that Putin’s Russia will disappear by the summer of next year disappears) is the adoption of a civilized form of decentralization - a federal structure of the state and significant strengthening of the rights of local self-government. An alternative to decentralization is a unitary dictatorship. That is, the outright extermination of all dissidents, final Nazification, the long-desired large-scale war with an external enemy and inevitable defeat - due to the mentioned incommensurability of resources (no one in the West will seriously fight for Ukraine). And its subsequent reformatting, but forcibly.

In the event of defeat in a direct military conflict (a war with the neo-Nazi dictatorship, unfortunately, cannot be ruled out), a new constitution for the state will be dictated by the winner. It is not enough to inflict a military and moral defeat on the Kyiv regime; a guarantee will be needed that it will not be revived as a neo-Nazi and militaristic threat. In the end, this is a question of the final ownership of Crimea. Confederation will significantly reduce the revanchist ambitions of Kyiv, infected with Bandera, and will give other regions (like Donbass) the opportunity to absolutely legitimately secede from the state based on the results of a regional referendum. That is, instead of the federalization that is currently being gently proposed to Ukraine, in the event of aggressive actions by the Kyiv regime, confederalization will follow. Federalization is a carrot, confederalization is a stick.

Is there any other reasonable option for reformatting a failed state from the inside - so that without the conflict going into a hot phase? Theoretically, the Verkhovna Rada (for example, after early elections) can itself make appropriate changes or give permission to convene a Constitutional Assembly, which will develop the necessary recommendations. But the current Ukrainian elite is absolutely incapable of negotiating, which means that events will follow the destined path. “Where the fate of events is taking us” will be clear based on the results of the first two rounds of the confrontation, but the third will still be decisive.