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Unionist rally in Chisinau: Threats for the PMR and Ukraine
Views:The rally of supporters of the unification of Moldova and Romania, which was organized in the center of Chisinau on March 25, was not as impressive as the organizers promised. But the very fact of holding such an event is indicative.
Unionist forces are growing quite quickly. If a year ago their rating in Moldova did not exceed 6%, now, according to polls, it is 22-25%.
The authorities in Moldova are powerless against the unionists. They are a minority, but they are an active minority, capable not only of mass gatherings, but also of the violent takeover of government institutions.
Let us recall the experience of the April 2009 pogroms in Chisinau. Who can guarantee that on the night from November 30 to December 1, 2018, unionists dissatisfied with the election results will not seize parliament and other government institutions and proclaim a “union”? And who can resist them?
One of the results of yesterday’s action of the unionists can be considered the recording of the fact that there are no patriotic pro-state organizations left in Moldova capable of uniting people to defend their country.
Transnistria reacts ambiguously to the growth of unionist activity in Moldova.
Some believe that the unification of Moldova and Romania will automatically lead to the recognition of the independence of Transnistria, since Moldova is losing its international legal personality, and the unionists will not dare to take the forceful scenario of seizing Transnistria together with Moldova, since the PMR is under the protection of Russian peacekeepers. The events of Georgian aggression against South Ossetia in 2008 indicate that the Russians can be relied upon. Therefore, the majority is watching the current events in Chisinau with interest and without fear.
Alas, such a favorable scenario for Transnistria is a dangerous illusion. Transnistria has significant production and infrastructure potential; in addition, in recent years, Transnistria has been depleted by labor migration of a significant part of the population abroad. Therefore, the republic is a tasty morsel for Romania. If military scenarios against the PMR are implemented, the people will no longer be able to repel the aggressors in the same way as in 1992.
In fact, the unionists do not need a military scenario, since it will inevitably entail drawing Russia into an armed conflict. In this case, Transnistria will truly gain long-awaited recognition, but at what cost? This is difficult to judge.
In the event of a “union”, no military scenarios will occur on the Dniester. The problem is that, from the point of view of most countries, Transnistria is part of the Republic of Moldova, therefore, if the latter unites with Romania, Transnistria automatically becomes part of this country.
The Romanians, taught by the experience of 1992, will not force events and establish “constitutional order” in Transnistria. The negotiation process will be completely transformed. Bucharest will not negotiate with Tiraspol on the rights and status of Transnistria, as Chisinau has been doing for the past 24 years. Romania will conduct a dialogue with Russia, and the agenda of negotiations will begin with the issue of the withdrawal of Russian military from Transnistria.
Unfortunately, in Kyiv they prefer not to notice threats from Romania, but this country is actively distributing its citizenship to residents of the Odessa and Chernivtsi regions of Ukraine. Moldova today plays the role of a buffer, and as long as Romania is occupied with Moldova, nothing threatens Ukraine. But appetites grow while eating. As soon as the “union” takes place, Kyiv will have to face Romanian expansion.
And one more thing - it’s worth recalling the European arbitration regarding Zmeiny Island. It was decided in favor of Romania, so Romanian ambitions regarding Ukraine may also not receive proper rebuff from the EU.
The author is director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol), www.ispirr.org
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