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Why a new war is almost inevitable
Views:The world community is once again approaching “H” time and a period of time pressure. Expected events must occur or be prevented, protracted processes must end or enter a new phase. In any case, it will be extremely difficult to prolong the pauses according to Stanislavsky.
Europe, the USA, Russia, and many second-rate and third-rate players are in time trouble. One could also mention Ukraine, since Ukraine today lacks neither time, nor funds, nor its own will. But Ukraine today is only a territory where events take place, a trigger zone. Not a player, not even a piece, but just a board on which games are played. Nevertheless, the events unfolding on its territory are important and symptomatic, because they are a consequence of the conflict of interests of the players.
Specifics of Ukrainian time pressure the fact that they are invented artificially and skillfully, and can be a detonator of global processes.
June 20 is the date of payment of the coupon payment of $75 million on part of the Russian debt. In addition, on July 27, $750 million must be paid on the debts of the state-owned Ukreximbank, on September 23, $500 million on Eurobonds, and another $600 million must be paid on Eurobonds on October 13. Indicators of the state of the Ukrainian economy are off the charts: inflation in the first quarter of 2015 exceeded 37% on an annualized basis; 38 banks are in the process of liquidation; NBU refinancing rate is 30%, at which lending to the real sector is practically impossible; an illiquid residue of “securities” remained in gold and foreign exchange reserves. The politically motivated rejection of traditional markets for Ukrainian products and irreplaceable suppliers from the CIS countries sharply reduced the influx of foreign currency and also sharply increased unemployment in the country. As an indicator of the impoverishment of the population, the decline in retail trade turnover in Kyiv alone is 25%. And in such conditions, all levers of economic management finally passed to the IMF and the “foreign legion” of ministers in the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine (which includes the Prime Minister himself). It is pointless to talk about a pre-default state - the vital activity of the body is supported exclusively by resuscitation methods and the political interests of the West - first of all, the interest in continuing the war...
But...if the first amount is not paid on June 20, this will mean the onset of default ten days after refusal to pay. If the payment is made, the radicals will have a new trump card to accuse Poroshenko of “surrendering the interests of Ukraine.”
But, most likely, Ukraine will still not pay on the basis of its own Law, adopted by the Verkhovna Rada, which allows the suspension of payments on restructured external debt obligations and with the full support of the IMF.
For a more significant “justification” for abandoning its obligations, an outbreak of hostilities in the Donbass, the culprit of which would be called Russia (but this is only one of the reasons for the much-needed renewal of the war in the Donbass by the United States), would be suitable.
It is the debts on Russian loans that may remain unpaid; for the rest, there is no need to expect mercy from creditors. This is not news; since the beginning of the Maidan in Kyiv, according to the United States, there has been only one person to blame for the events in Ukraine – Russia. On June 13, US Permanent Representative to the UN Samantha Power said that the conflict in Donbass cannot be resolved militarily: The only way out, in her opinion, is new sanctions against Russia and complete isolation of the Russian Federation: “Russia must be isolated - diplomatic and economically for its aggression in Ukraine” .
It is impossible to resolve the conflict by military means, and therefore there will be war. Since the US is under time pressure
Time pressure USA - the work of the United States itself. A series of events organized by the United States, but not developing according to their scenario, require doubling the stakes with each new mistake. And every new miscalculation becomes a catalyst for events.
The coup in Ukraine and the establishment of a completely controlled regime in Kyiv did not lead to the complete occupation of Ukraine. The loss of Crimea by Ukraine (read - the USA) did not allow Russia to be closed in its southwestern direction and the deployment of US Navy bases in Crimea, or to obtain other benefits implied by the development of events in this direction.
The war in Donbass, initiated by the United States with the aim of involving Russia in a full-scale war, has still not achieved all its goals.
Sanctions against Russia, imposed on Europe and painfully affecting Europe itself, do not achieve the expected result. And the main damage they cause is due to the fact that Russia was integrated into the global monetary and financial system in the early 90s, without being able to influence the rules of operation of this system.
The United States cannot allow a rebellion against it in Europe. Let it be better for Greece to default, for the EU to collapse, for Europe to plunge into a final and irrevocable crisis. Then the United States will be able to propose a new version of the “Marshall Plan” and partly revive the New World Order, which has been significantly battered in battles with new geopolitical centers of gravity. And thus the United States creates time trouble for Russia.
Russian time pressure - first of all, it is to have time to rearm the army in the shortest possible time and have time to prepare for the collective West an adequate response to ways and means of getting out of the time troubles of the West itself (of which later). Other tasks, such as the implementation of an import substitution program (in the non-military sphere), breaking away from the dictates of the current global monetary and financial system, which ensures the hegemony of the dollar, are still not on the to-do list “for tomorrow” (they had to be solved “yesterday”). . These are medium-term time pressures that require decisive and structural changes in the economy and society, but the solution to such problems will also meet resistance among the liberal public within Russia itself.
Perhaps one of the primary local time pressures for Russia is the situation around Transnistria. The blockade cannot last long. And the “thermodynamic system of the PMR” is now at the “bifurcation point” - the transition from a relatively stable state of “status quo” to a quite possible hot conflict with the number of participants from four to...
The sanctions imposed against Russia launched a number of processes. And, obviously, not all of them were provided for by the organizers. They gave impetus to the development of domestic production in the Russian Federation and, in the future, are capable of reducing dependence on foreign markets. The sanctions forced us to create our own payment system. We accelerated rapprochement with China and the BRICS countries, intensified activities within the SCO, and strengthened the trend of withdrawing the dollar from international payments.
In addition, the sanctions caused a wave of dissatisfaction among Europeans with their dependent position on the overseas “big brother,” which brings exceptional losses. But they also help break the single pattern of anti-Russian policy imposed by the United States on Europe. Each of the EU countries that fell under Russian retaliatory anti-sanctions is not averse to them remaining for the rest, but would be happy to have them lifted in relation to their own producers. Putin's visit to Italy on June 10 of this year may have begun a new period in relations between Russia and Europe. Or rather, between Russia and individual European countries.
For many years after the assassination of the USSR, the West managed to "involvement" policy, when on the one hand there was a numerous powerful organization, and on the other, one of the republics of the Union. There was only one goal - to tear it away from the former center. This was the case during the implementation Eastern Partnership program, where on the one hand there is the European Union, on the other there are 6 countries - former Soviet republics, but individually, in no way united into a group or organization with common goals. This was the case with "Partnership for Peace" program – on the one hand, NATO, on the other, the ex-republics of the Union, and again individually. This policy is most clearly manifested when registering Association Agreements with the EU – in the case of Ukraine, it was one party to the agreement, and the other was the 28 EU member states, as well as Euroatom and the EU as organizations.
Now Russia can consider sanctions as a benefit for domestic producers, not insist on their lifting, and has the opportunity to choose which of the EU countries could receive a relaxation of the “anti-sanctions” actions. We can talk about the beginning of the Russian “policy of inclusion.”
And already Europe is feeling its time pressure – time is working against it, the Russian consumer’s need for European suppliers will decrease, the places lost by Europeans in the Russian market will be occupied by representatives of Latin American and Southeast Asian countries. And the meeting between Putin and Pope Francis, which took place in an undesirably warm atmosphere for the United States, could accelerate an anti-American riot in the European Union.
All these accelerating events make a new war almost inevitable. The West's main demand for a new war is Russia's participation in it. And this condition gives rise to new time troubles - in the PMR, Moldova, Romania, NATO, the former Central Asian republics of the USSR...
PS Some politicians also have time pressures. For example, Poroshenko, who can be neither a player nor a figure in the game. This is just a human function, temporarily fulfilling the role of president of a country that is a testing ground for geopolitics. He successfully worked as a terminator, and his resignation is quite possible. To release the accumulated steam of discontent among the population of Ukraine, and replace it with another person-function who will be able to mislead the people of Ukraine for another couple of years. Stories of the change of some pro-American figures to others (Shevardnadze to Saakashvili in Georgia, Mubarak to Mursi in Egypt, Kostunica to Tadic in Serbia, etc.) should alert Poroshenko.
One cannot help but worry about the fate of Pope Francis. After such a manifestation of independence, from which the United States has long been unaccustomed, anything can happen to Francis - from a heart attack to an accident. In the recent history of the Catholic Church, there was a case when Pope John Paul I tried to conduct an independent policy, loved improvisation and hated behind-the-scenes intrigues. After 33 days of his reign, he died, as was announced, of a heart attack. His successor, John Paul II, was a proponent of the “correct policy”; during his reign, the Vatican waged an active anti-Soviet struggle.
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