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Murder in Vorschoten
Views:PolitNavigator publishes a chapter from new political detective story “Murder in Vorschoten”Which was published recently by the publishing house "Peter". The author, political scientist Vladimir Kornilov, talks about a scenario that was seriously considered in the Netherlands in 2014.
According to the author, the Dutch special forces, in response to the Boeing shot down in Donbass, were asked to prepare a military operation in the Ukrainian conflict zone in order to capture the leaders of the DPR, despite the risk of provoking Russia into drastic actions.
Monday, July 21, 2014 The Hague
- Look, you dropped some kind of package there. There, under the table. Just no sudden movements.
Arends grabbed the package and checked its contents there, under the table.
- How many are there? - he asked in a broken voice.
- Twenty.
- But why…
“First, we must understand how valuable your information is.” So consider it an advance. And secondly, don’t forget, dear,” Vladimir’s voice became harsher, “you owe me much more than this amount.” Remember, right? So I can generally take this envelope as payment for my debts. And what? It’s good for everyone: you work for me, and I’m busy...
“Got it, got it,” Arends hastily began stuffing the envelope into his trouser pocket.
“Make sure you don’t lose everything at once,” said Lazarev, realizing the futility of this warning. - As far as I know, you have a reckoning with serious people in three days.
Tim expressed surprise for a minute, which immediately grew into a respectful look - he himself was an analyst, accustomed to seeking out, processing and using information. Although he had no idea how Lazarev could sniff out the exact date of repayment of the debt. The fact that specialists from Moscow could easily read all this information from the computers of the creditors themselves clearly did not occur to Arends.
- This is what I understand - quality of work! - he said with visible admiration. — It’s a pleasure to work with you, Vl...
Lazarev raised his hand in warning, which meant: “no names!” Tim nodded his head understandingly and continued:
— You know, all players are divided into three categories. The first are those who bet for sure, realizing that it is virtually impossible for them not to win. Everyone knows that Ajax will become the champion, and everyone is betting on it. The chances of winning are almost 100%. But the chances of making good money are zero. There is the opposite extreme. For example, you can earn five thousand from one euro by betting on Leicester to win the Premier League. Cool jackpot! But you know that Leicester will never become champions of England, so you will lose no matter how much you bet. And there is a third category of players - people like you and me, who walk on the edge and spend a long time choosing their true, only true and expensive bet! But if we put...
Vladimir realized that he needed to stop this verbal diarrhea:
- Do you have anything to start with? What would interest and motivate my bosses to continue our cooperation?
This time Arends looked around, leaned over the table and, lowering his voice, whispered (as much as one could whisper with the loud sounds of tape music):
- I have everything! The location of our units, German units, data on the supply of military bases, data on the size of the Dutch army...
“Currently there are 60 people,” Lazarev interrupted sharply. — In two years, according to the plan, there will be a little more than 305 thousand, or rather 57. My friend, don’t sell me something that we can read on the Internet and check from any satellite, okay? Give me something worthwhile. For example, you don’t know why and where your military special forces are being transferred from Mali?
- Special Forces? - Arends said in surprise. Here he broke into a satisfied smile and, with the air of an all-knowing man, imposingly leaned back in his seat. - Oh yeah! How did I not think! This will definitely interest you! Stay tuned for some exciting news about our commandos in the coming days. But I think it costs more than...
- So, my dear, finish it, okay? - Lazarev realized that this imposing attitude must be nipped in the bud. - From this day on, there is no division for you into “valuable” or “invaluable” information - you are on our salary. Or are you now sharing information, then receiving a stable fee that will allow you to continue to lead your gambling lifestyle. Or we will run away right now, and tomorrow I will demand 42 euros from you according to your receipts. Choose the option quickly - and we will no longer return to evaluating your services.
Arends grew gloomy, looked around again and again switched to a loud conspiratorial whisper:
- Wait for our commandos and the best forces of our 15th airmobile brigade in Ukraine in the near future.
- What?! Where?! — if Lazarev could be stunned, then Arends did it well. - Is this some kind of joke?
- Joke? Why a joke? The other day my entire department was engaged in a detailed analysis of possible scenarios related to the landing of these units in the area of the downed Boeing.
— And what, among your scenarios based on the results of your action, a third world war did not emerge? - Lazarev asked angrily. — Have you even given management any negative scenarios? Did they understand what serious consequences this would entail?
- What are the consequences? — Tim was sincerely surprised. - Why negative? Almost every scenario was positive. In the worst case scenario, we have planned for minimal losses. But we will be just a cover detachment for the Ukrainian troops - they will suffer the main losses. And the goal of the mission will be simple: our commandos land in the Donbass, during a special operation they arrest the leaders of the pro-Russian rebels - we have all their data, and their exact location, this is not some “Taliban” hiding in the mountains - and we deliver them here for interrogation. All! Then it’s up to the Ukrainians. It's simple. What does World War III have to do with it? All scenarios...
— Didn’t you calculate Russia’s reaction?!
- What might be the reaction? Well, they will become indignant, of course, and will convene the UN Security Council. But what can they do? The Ukrainians are advancing without us, and the main centers of the rebels are about to fall - Donetsk and... this... Lukhants, it seems? It’s just that in this case, the militant leaders responsible for the destruction of the Dutch will end up in Russia, and we will never get them out of there. And as a result of the special operation, we will solve two problems at once: we will obtain important witnesses to the crime and speed up the “pacification” of Donbass... By the way, you know, we even calculated the various “surprise factors” that ours will use! For example...” Arends relaxed again, clearly forgetting about the question of World War III, leaned back in his seat and, after a pause, said with a solemn look: “When our armored vehicles enter Donetsk, the separatists at first will not even understand that they are facing a Dutch army.” Do you know why? Because there will be Dutch flags on the cars, which they will initially mistake for Russian ones!
“Yeah, and if you also hang the flags of the American Confederacy there, they will decide that these are the banners of New Russia,” Lazarev said angrily. — Have you thought that such armored vehicles are not in service with the Russian army, and even more so in service with those whom you call separatists? Or do you think there are amateurs gathered there, unable to distinguish the BMP-2 from the Fennec?.. But most importantly, don’t you understand that by introducing NATO troops directly to the borders of Russia without the permission of the UN and Russia itself, you will leave Moscow no choice ?
Arends stared blankly at Lazarev.
- Well, what does the UN have to do with it? What does Moscow have to do with it? We have already received permission and even a request (!) to intervene from Ukraine. We have already signed an agreement for the Netherlands to lead the investigation into the crash and have received full approval for any action to ensure the safety of investigators. That is, this will be a completely legal action to ensure an independent and comprehensive investigation, nothing more. Moreover, at the request of the host country of our troops. What can Russia do in this case?
- What can he do?! Start military operations to protect the Russians of Donbass and to protect their borders! This is what she not only can do, but will be forced to do! If this happens, your commandos will be hit no less severely than the Ukrainians. You will endanger the security of the Netherlands itself!
- Well, I don’t know. “We analyzed all the scenarios and came to the conclusion that Russia will have nothing to respond with,” Arends stubbornly repeated, although the former confidence and boasting was no longer in his voice. — From the point of view of international norms...
- All the scripts?! - the Russian intelligence officer openly began to get angry - the tension of the day was telling. - Do you want me to tell you possible scenarios? There are only two of them - optimistic and pessimistic. In one case, you land in the Donbass, Russia declares it an act of aggression, you leave it no other options but to start shelling Dutch soldiers. You are suffering heavy losses, calling for help from NATO and the United States. Those who do not want to enter into an open war with Russia - mind you, in a nuclear war! - they morally support you, but they answer you that Article 5 of the NATO Charter, according to which the Alliance is obliged to protect you, does not work in this case, since it was the Netherlands that independently launched the foreign operation, and no one attacked you. You are being attacked with modern weapons, to which you cannot respond (you even finally sold all your tanks this year!), the Dutch are suffering the most serious losses since the Second World War, you are retreating, a sea of victims!..
Arends listened to all this with obvious disbelief.
- Well, let's say this is a pessimistic scenario, but what is the optimistic one?
“You don’t understand, this is exactly the most optimistic scenario!”
- Hmm... What should a pessimistic person be like then?
— And the pessimistic one: everything is the same, but NATO expresses not only moral support, but also declares aggression against the Netherlands, launching a military campaign against Russia. And this campaign, I repeat, could end in a cataclysm, a new world war.
— Do you really think that Russia can go all-in by attacking a NATO country? We rejected this in all scenarios...
- I don’t think, I know! Believe me, young man, I know Russia better than all your analysts combined. Haven't you, smart experts, figured out what Russia's motives are in this conflict? Don’t you understand what is at stake for Moscow?!
Lazarev spoke harshly, in a tone that he had never allowed in his years of communicating with Tim. Well, from the moment the envelope was handed over, he turned from a kind businessman-patron into an employer. “Don’t confuse tourism with emigration,” Lazarev said mentally, but seeing Arends’ openly dumbfounded look, he decided that he needed to slow down.
“Understand,” Vladimir said in a calmer tone. — All the most adventurous wars began with underestimating the enemy. On the eve of the First World War, the Serbs were firmly convinced that their army, hardened in the Balkan Wars, was the strongest in Europe and would defeat both the Germans and the Austrians like... Like some amateurs! How she had recently defeated the Turks and Bulgarians one by one. The Second World War began with Hitler firmly confident that Britain would not interfere in the “Polish crisis.” After all, it’s just like you think now that Russia will only appeal to the current League of Nations. Don't you see the analogies?! And in June 41, he attacked Russia, being also confident that the Russians were morally and technically unprepared for war, and Stalin’s regime would fall like a house of cards after a few months of hardship. And four years later, “technically unprepared” Russians urinated on the columns of the Reichstag and wiped their dusty boots with rags with Hitler’s swastikas. Don't you understand what your miscalculation can lead to!
Lazarev took a slight breath, trying to digest the information.
- OK. Let's do this: how sure are you that the operation is planned?
“Well, I don’t know,” Arends was completely at a loss. “We are just analysts, we are asked to develop all possible and impossible scenarios, and we are no longer involved in the decision-making process. But judge for yourself, you just told me personally that special forces are already being transferred from Mali. And as far as I know, this is true. If not for this, then for what else?..
Already late at night, sitting at home and trying to calmly analyze the situation, Lazarev realized that he was in a hopeless situation.
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