Ukraine-2025: Federalization or feudalization

What will Ukraine be like in 10 years? It is very difficult to talk about this, given that the world security system is collapsing, entire regions are plunging into the chaos of civil wars and poverty. Even such macro-regions as Europe are going through difficult times, the Greek crisis, the debt crises of the countries of the poor European “south”, as well as separatist tendencies that have engulfed more prosperous regions call into question the preservation of stability and even borders in Europe.

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Europe is experiencing one of the deepest political crises of the post-war period. The security system built after World War II is bursting at the seams.

This summer we will celebrate an extremely interesting anniversary, 70 years since the Potsdam Conference. Summing up the results of the war was also the last meeting in the Big Three format. The agreements reached soon gave way to new confrontation, and many decisions were never implemented.

However, it will be extremely interesting to remember the principles underlying the platform on which the conference was held. The Potsdam Conference proclaimed the principles for the restoration of defeated Germany: denazification, demilitarization, democratization, decentralization и decartelization.

These principles can and should be used to restore Ukraine, provided that relative stability in Europe as a whole is maintained.

It is obvious that all the talk about decentralization and democratization is impossible without consistent denazification, which in turn is impossible without removing the oligarchy from power. A year and a half after the start of the Maidan, it is safe to say that it was the oligarchs, including those close to President Yanukovych, who supported the development of the infrastructure of Nazi groups, in the hope of using them for their own purposes.

“The Trident named after Stepan Bandera” for many years (since the presidency of Leonid Kuchma) was associated with the SBU, which willingly used it for various provocations even during the “Rise Up, Ukraine” campaign.

Later, the Trizub group joined the Right Sector, the creation of which was actively supported by the Yanukovych administration to radicalize the Maidan and reject the middle strata aligned with Western liberal ideology.

As we now know, the political intrigues of the Yanukovych administration and the oligarchs close to him played a cruel joke on them. However, let’s not reduce the surge of Nazism in Ukraine only to unsuccessful political intrigues. Ukrainian Nazism would never have grown without the systemic support of the largest Ukrainian owners, who saw radical nationalism as a guarantee of preserving their assets and ousting leftist ideology from the mass consciousness.

Thus, the task of de-oligarchization becomes a necessary condition for denazification and improvement of public life and public consciousness.

Of course, for many years we will feel the consequences of the war, a huge number of morally and physically crippled people who find it difficult to integrate into peaceful life. Dealing with the wave of crime and violence will be the biggest challenge for decades to come. Huge territories will be mined, and it will take many years to guarantee the safety of the residents of Donbass and, especially, children.

It will be extremely difficult to restore industry and agriculture. The deindustrialization that took place in the Donbass removed Ukraine from the ranks of industrial countries; restoring the industrial base without lost technologies will be extremely problematic; Ukraine will face the fact that there will be no place for it in the global division of labor. The most trained and educated personnel will go to the USA and the EU, as is now happening in the field of information technology.

Hope for the country can be the development of large-scale agricultural production and a move away from single-commodity production of raw materials with low added value. For example, Ukraine is the world's largest producer of sunflower oil and one of the largest producers of grain, but these goods are used as raw materials for other, more developed countries.

The development of agriculture and the food industry, focused on deep processing, is impossible without restoring good neighborly relations with Russia and investment cooperation with China. The Russian Federation and China are the two largest and most attractive markets for the Ukrainian agro-industrial complex.

Ukraine also has unique transport capabilities, however, they can only be used if the system of collective security in Europe is restructured and the confrontational model in relations between the Russian Federation and the EU is eliminated.

By 2025, Ukraine will have a political regime capable of conducting dialogue both with the post-EU (the European Union in its current form will not exist in 10 years) and with the Moscow-Beijing axis, which in 10 years will play a much more serious role in world.