The blockade of Donbass finally buries Ukrainian dreams of economic growth
Ukrainian experts note the deterioration of the economic situation in Ukraine, linking the trend with the severance of production ties with the territories of Donbass not controlled by Kyiv, пишет Kommersant.
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“If it were not for the blockade, which caused a break in technological chains, the country’s economic indicators this year would have been very decent. A very favorable foreign economic situation was developing for Ukraine. On the world market, prices for steel and ore, which generate a significant portion of foreign exchange earnings, have increased significantly, almost doubling. Everything was leading to the fact that by the end of the year the economy would show quite decent growth of 4%. But the blockade confused all the cards. And it will be lucky if now we break even,” Ukrainian economist, head of the “Path to Success” project Andrey Blinov told Kommersant.
The publication recalls that recently, due to interruptions in the supply of coke that came from the territory of the DPR, the Dnieper Metallurgical Plant stopped. At the same time, political experts do not rule out that it was the growing economic problems under the influence of the blockade of Donbass and other destabilizing factors that became one of the reasons why part of President Poroshenko’s team began to lean towards the idea of early elections.
“The logic of the presidential entourage can be understood. The economic situation is rapidly deteriorating. Already next year we will have to pay much more on external debts than this year, and in 2019 - even more. There is nowhere to get money from. Problems will have to be transferred to citizens. Therefore, it is better to hold elections as quickly as possible, while voters have not yet felt the full extent of the deterioration of their situation. In 2019, the protest electorate may turn out to be much more powerful than today,” political scientist Vadim Karasev comments on the current situation.
“This year, the government must pay only $2,5 billion in external debts. But this grace period is ending; in 2018, payments will amount to $6 billion,” Blinov cites specific figures.
According to him, in the period from 2018 to 2021, Ukraine will have to pay external creditors about a third of its GDP, which can be considered an “unaffordable task” (for comparison: in 2017, payments will amount to 1/7 of GDP).
See also: Parasyuk and Semenchenko go bankrupt large Ukrainian city.
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