Kolomoisky's militants are being led to slaughter so that they do not return to Kyiv
Sergei Buntovsky – Donetsk writer, journalist, activist of the Russian Bloc party
As experts predicted at the end of last year, Maidan and the events that followed it led to a serious economic crisis and a sharp drop in the standard of living of the population.
So far, a significant part of the middle class and activists of various parties and NGOs, which were the main driving force of the Maidan, perceive what is happening as temporary difficulties. Of course, many are dissatisfied with the rise in prices for utilities, the rise in prices for food and equipment, but for now everyone consoles themselves with the hope that these are just the difficulties of the transition period, and soon the EU will help us reach the European standard of living.
In addition, official propaganda has a serious trump card, which says: “Ukraine is under attack, it is at war, so patriots are obliged to tighten their belts and endure for the sake of victory!” It was precisely under the mantras about the need to repel aggression that the new Kiev government cut social benefits, reduced benefits for the birth of children, introduced VAT on medicines, and so on. It was explained to the respectable public that this was a forced step, and people were still putting up with it, expressing dissatisfaction only in private conversations and venting on Internet forums.
In addition, the majority of the country’s residents had some savings, which became a kind of safety net and made it possible to slightly soften the blow from the falling exchange rate of the hryvnia and rising prices. Therefore, the deterioration in the standard of living of the majority of the population, although noticeable to the naked eye, is still far from reaching the critical point beyond which food riots arise. However, the problem is that in the foreseeable future there are no prerequisites for positive changes in the country. Accordingly, living in Ukraine will become increasingly difficult, and with the arrival of cold weather, spending on utilities will become unaffordable for tens of thousands of people across the country.
A few more months will pass, and the standard of living under the “tyrant” Yanukovych will seem like a real paradise compared to the current situation. The search for those to blame and chaotic attempts to change something will inevitably begin. Ukrainians standing on the Maidan will feel deceived and will probably try to resort to a tried and tested method: they will start street protests against the current president.
There is no doubt that Yulia Tymoshenko will take advantage of the situation and will try to inflate discontent as much as possible, in the wake of which she can return to power. Most likely, the Dnepropetrovsk governor, who really has a chance to take control of most of Ukraine, will also go on the offensive against his immediate superior.
I wonder whether Poroshenko will be able to respond adequately if Kolomoisky’s personal army, consisting of volunteer battalions, is suddenly thrown into Kyiv, where the next “people’s assembly” will take place?
Does the President understand the level of threat? Without a doubt. The press begins a campaign to expose the insidious Dnepropetrovsk oligarch. In addition, it is interesting to note that, according to data announced in the media, recently two battalions that are associated with Kolomoisky, “Aidar” and “Azov,” suffered such heavy losses in the Donbass that for some time they ceased to exist as a real fighting force.
Perhaps this is just a coincidence, but immediately after the mass death of volunteers, a version appeared that they were simply exposed to attack by the commanders of “regular” security forces who are oriented toward the president. In addition, Kolomoisky’s “Donbass” and “Dnepr-2” battalions were thrown into heavy battles for Karlovka, which will also inevitably suffer losses. It can be assumed that Poroshenko is preparing in advance for the aggravation of the situation in Kyiv, and with the help of Donbass militias he is removing Ukrainian militants who are dangerous to him. So, it is quite possible that the president will be able to stop all attacks on his power by Igor Kolomoisky.
However, even the neutralization of political competitors will not make the life of the head of state easier, because he will in no way be able to improve the lives of ordinary Ukrainians. Therefore, in the fall, we may witness a new Maidan, which will go under purely social slogans and will bury the entire vertical of power in the country.
Even by removing disgruntled oligarchs and opposition political leaders from the political scene in one way or another, the authorities will not save the situation, since this will only weaken the organization of street protests, but will not cancel them. Of course, without financial investments, the rallies will not reach the same numbers as during the last Maidan, but the protesters will behave much harsher and more aggressively than paid extras. And if you take into account the number of weapons walking around the country and the appearance of a mass of people who have already “tasted the taste of blood” during the ATO in Donbass, then it is not difficult to guess that the protests will be by no means peaceful.
So autumn and winter promise to be a very difficult time in Ukraine.
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