Bulgaria and Romania. Special role in the Ukrainian crisis

Bulgaria and Romania are being drawn into the Ukrainian crisis. The authorities of both countries have come close to deciding on the supply of weapons and ammunition to the Ukrainian military and the repair of armored vehicles.

The route of the upcoming deliveries passes suspiciously close to the actively heating up Transnistria, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.

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A trip with consequences

The trip to Kyiv made an impression on the Romanian and Bulgarian government delegations. They visited the Ukrainian capital a day apart, on April 26 and 28, but returned with the same conclusions and proposals.

Following the trip, the head of the Romanian government, Nicolae Ciuca, and the Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Kiril Petkov, held a joint press conference at which they voiced their opinion on possible arms supplies and other assistance to Ukraine.

Petkov (a brunette like Travolta in his youth) and Chuke

Despite the fact that in both countries the attitude of the authorities towards the conflict is exclusively pro-Ukrainian, in reality, the public in both Romania and Bulgaria has a negative attitude towards the supply of military equipment, weapons and ammunition. This is confirmed by sociological survey data and criticism of such intentions voiced in the parliaments of both countries.

_{However, now, contrary to the public mood, Sofia and Bucharest may make decisions that directly threaten their own stability, but are coordinated with the decision-making centers in NATO.}

Chuke and Petkov's trip to Kyiv was preceded by a meeting of NATO defense ministers at the US Ramstein base in Germany. In essence, the Pentagon took upon itself not only the coordination of international arms supplies for the Ukrainian military, but also formed a coalition of long-term military support and assistance to Kyiv. Romania and Bulgaria may be assigned a special role in these plans, since both countries are the reference points of the so-called. “NATO’s Eastern Flank” and have significant reserves of both Soviet-style ammunition and weapons, as well as the production capacity to create or repair them.

Old, good, Soviet

The statements of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg about the transition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Western-style weapons should not deceive anyone - right now in the Donbass and near Nikolaev, Ukrainians are fighting back with Soviet grenade launchers and cannons. The artillery and hundreds of thousands of ammunition promised by the collective West have only just begun to arrive at the front, and the armored vehicles supplied are entirely Soviet or licensed production.

_{In this context, the capabilities of Romania and Bulgaria to repair and restore T-55, T-64 and T-72 tanks, as well as to produce ammunition for them, are of key importance for the strategic and tactical capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces.}

Decisions on the repair of Ukrainian armored vehicles and the supply of weapons have not yet been made either in Sofia or Bucharest. The Bulgarians will have to examine this case at parliamentary hearings, the Romanians will have to adopt an amendment to the current legislation on the possibilities of exporting and exporting weapons at meetings of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

In Bulgaria, President Rumen Radev strongly opposes such a step. the pro-presidential Bulgarian Socialist Party (part of the ruling coalition), as well as non-parliamentary radical political and public organizations. There is a consensus among Romanian political elites about the need to help Ukraine, however there is no confidence that they themselves will not need these ammunition, tanks and aircraft when Russian troops approach Galati from the Ukrainian Reni. And the Romanian Ministry of Defense has no doubt that they will certainly break through there. Minister Vasile Dincu repeatedly pointed out the need to strengthen his own armed forces and, on his and President Johannes’ initiative, the budget of the Romanian military was increased to 2,5% of the country’s GDP.

Meeting in Bucharest (photo by the press service of the Romanian government) - before the briefing

Bulgarian T72MR, modernized to NATO standard

Straight to Tiraspol

At the same time, continuous pressure from Brussels leaves no room for illusions. Despite the threat of political instability in Bulgaria and the serious weakening of the Romanian army decisions on military supplies will likely be made in the coming days.

In Bucharest, May 4 was named as the date for consideration of the bill, and in Sofia, Prime Minister Petkov is actively preparing the public for the need to make a decision on military supplies.

In this case, the escalation of the conflict will reach a new level. Trains with Romanian and Bulgarian tanks and shells will have to travel to Ukraine along the Moldovan railway, in close proximity to the encircled Transnistria. And it's quite likely Neither tanks nor shells will reach Nikolaev, but will remain to strengthen the Odessa group of Ukrainian troops. Which, as stated by the speaker of the Odessa military administration, Bratchuk, is actively engaged in “strengthening the border” with the unrecognized Transnistria just ten kilometers from the Russian ammunition depot in Kolbasna.