“The nationalists will have the majority in the long term”
Even if the former “regionals” unite and nominate a conditional candidate from the “South-East” for the presidential elections in Ukraine, he will be doomed to defeat in conditions when Donbass and Crimea do not take part in the campaign, and therefore nationalist-minded regions have a majority of votes. It would be better to concentrate our efforts on launching several anti-Bandera projects that could enter the new Verkhovna Rada in 2019. However, supporters of friendship with Russia are unlikely to be able to claim leading roles - nationalists will retain a majority in the Ukrainian government in the long term.
Kiev political scientist Vasily Stoyakin spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator.
"PolitNavigator": The election campaign has begun in Ukraine. Its start was preceded by the decision of the Russian government to expand the sanctions list, which included part of the Opposition Bloc faction in the Verkhovna Rada, focusing on the oligarch Rinat Akhmetov. Political scientist Mikhail Pogrebinsky, close to Viktor Medvedchuk, explained that this is how Moscow signals the need to come to an agreement - so that there is a chance for a conditional representative of the South-East to get into the second round. Can the sanctions list help us unite?
Vasily Stoyakin: I don’t know the Kremlin’s motives for introducing the sanctions list, but I consider the very idea of nominating a single candidate to be at least useless, and at most harmful. The single candidate from the South-East is guaranteed to lose in the second round to any post-Maidan candidate. This will have extremely negative consequences for the anti-Maidan opposition. In general, entering the second round with Yuriy Boyko is Poroshenko’s campaign strategy. Guaranteed re-election.
It is much better to nominate many candidates who would make it possible to mobilize the relevant electorate to the maximum and reveal its potential. And then play in the parliamentary elections.
These elections can bury the post-regional opposition and clear the way for new political forces.
"PolitNavigator": That is. a march in several columns to the new Verkhovna Rada?
Vasily Stoyakin: In general, yes. There is nothing to catch in the presidential elections - the balance of forces is wrong.
"PolitNavigator": Can Zelensky be considered an alternative to the Bandera regime?
Vasily Stoyakin: Zelensky is seen by citizens as an alternative to Ukrainian politics as a whole. But this is rather a possibility of an alternative than an alternative as such.
"PolitNavigator": How much can the anti-Bandera columns in the new Rada receive in total?
Vasily Stoyakin: I think up to a quarter of the votes is the approximate number of supporters of federalization.
"PolitNavigator": And what will they be able to influence?
Vasily Stoyakin: On the composition of the Rada, on the adoption of certain laws. Not by much.
“PolitNavigator”: What about the Boyko-Poroshenko scenario - perhaps this is no longer relevant, given that sociologists are predicting Poroshenko will not make it into the second round?
Vasily Stoyakin: Poroshenko will make it to the second round. In general, I believe that his loss can only occur as a result of an extremely unfavorable development of the situation. Like the US's tough stance.
"PolitNavigator": And due to what? Success in obtaining a tomos for a new church structure?
Vasily Stoyakin: He has already shown why - he will intimidate voters with an inevitable war with Russia.
But the topic of tomos was introduced from outside and has no meaning within the framework of the election campaign. Perhaps as a way to distract voters’ attention from the socio-economic situation.
“PolitNavigator”: So it seems that no one believed the story about martial law.
Vasily Stoyakin: They believed it. Yulia Tymoshenko demanded to cancel it early because voters are scared. This suggests that they have stopped responding to her slogans...
“PolitNavigator”: One gets the impression that Tymoshenko generally began to speak more and more with theses on the nationalist agenda, which was initially used by Poroshenko’s headquarters. And, thus, Julia herself deprives herself of the prospect of expanding the electorate.
Vasily Stoyakin: She is forced to work in this direction because she relies on the same key group. Radical nationalists are good because they are the core and they can defend their choice on the Maidan. So for Tymoshenko, yes, this is a mistake, but she has no choice - there is nothing to rely on in the East.
"PolitNavigator": That is. didn’t that same conventional pendulum swing in the opposite direction? Will the nationalists still have the majority after the presidential and parliamentary elections?
Vasily Stoyakin: The pendulum reached its stop at the beginning of the year and has now gone back. However, the nationalists will have the majority in the long term.
"PolitNavigator": What needs to be done to speed up the moment when the situation turns around?
Vasily Stoyakin: Borrow emitters from Saraksha. This is from moderately realistic.
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