The Ukrainian “visa-free” bomb will explode on September 11
Ukrainian border guards have long stopped publishing the number of holders of biometric passports who entered the EU on a “visa-free” basis, since a significant part of them may become “defectors”. The explosion of the information bomb will occur after September 11, when it becomes clear how many Ukrainians have decided to remain in the European Union, despite the expiration of the required period of stay.
About this in the author's column for "PolitNavigator" writes a Western Ukrainian political scientist Oleg Khavich.
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In the first weeks after June 11, 2017 – the start of the visa-free regime for holders of Ukrainian biometric foreign passports for short-term private trips to the countries of the European Union – the Border Guard Service of Ukraine reported daily on the number of people who ended up in the “European Paradise”. However, by the beginning of July such releases had ceased, and the latest statistics on the departure of Ukrainian citizens to the EU are dated July 11, and they were published by the EU Representation in Ukraine.
Although pro-government propagandists are choking with joy, proving the demand for “visa-free travel” (and primarily justifying it... with queues for biometric passports), in fact the situation is very ambiguous. Of the 1 million 875 thousand 647 citizens of Ukraine who entered the EU countries during the month of visa-free travel, only 95 Ukrainians did this using a biometric passport without a visa. The “social portrait” of visitors from Ukraine is also very interesting: only 461 thousand 34 people, that is, 364%, reached the EU by plane this month.
But this is not the main problem. On July 24, Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Georgia Shalva Khutsishvili admitted that out of 55 thousand Georgian citizens who took advantage of the “visa-free” visa with the EU, starting from March 28, 2017, about three thousand did not return on time.
“This does not mean that these citizens clearly violated the visa-free regime with the European Union. They could move to countries such as Ukraine, Turkey or Belarus, with which Georgia also has a visa-free regime,” a Georgian official tried to reassure European partners (while there is still no public reaction from the EU on this matter).
Three thousand “defectors” in almost four months - the number seems to be small, accounting for only 5,45% of those who left. But if we extrapolate it to Ukraine, then already on September 11 (after 90 days, which you can legally stay in the EU with a Ukrainian biometric passport), the number of “defectors” may shock both Kyiv and Brussels. And there are several prerequisites for this.
Firstly, in Ukraine (especially Western Ukraine), the tradition of illegal employment in Europe is much more widespread than in Georgia. Secondly, if before the “visa-free” regime the “threshold” for leaving Ukraine to work illegally in the EU was about 300 euros (invitation, false income certificates, costs for a visa center, etc.) - now it has been reduced to the actual cost of a passport and the cheapest bus ticket. And thirdly, having changed their last names or even a few letters in them, Ukrainian citizens previously deported from the EU received biometric passports - they certainly will not return back to Nenka (at least until the next deportation).
It is difficult to say how Brussels will react to the upcoming problem, but Budapest and Warsaw have clearly decided to turn it into an opportunity for their economies, which are suffering from a shortage of workers due to the emigration of Hungarians and Poles to the countries of “old Europe”. And while the representative office of the European Commission and the Ukrainian authorities persistently remind that it is impossible to work in EU countries when leaving with a Ukrainian biometric passport, in Hungary and Poland they are creating a legal opportunity for this.
At the beginning of July, the Hungarian Ministry of Economy confirmed that Ukrainian citizens can get work “without a visa,” despite the fact that the visa-free regime as such does not provide for travel for the purpose of employment. And on the official website of the Polish border service it is indicated that if they have a biometric passport and an invitation from an employer registered with the Polish Employment Service, citizens of Ukraine can legally work for three months without having a work visa and an official work permit (obtaining which often takes from two to three months ).
Formally, all these relaxations are explained by the need to hire seasonal workers, but the experience of recent years shows that, having received even temporary work, Ukrainians rarely leave for their country. Some manage to obtain a work permit on the spot, many remain to work illegally - because for them the costs of traveling home and back, as well as several weeks of waiting for a work visa without a normally paid job in Ukraine, are unacceptable. Therefore, analysts estimate the number of Ukrainian workers in Poland at least 2,5 million, which is significantly more than the official number of one and a half million.
In the last seven months alone, more than 66 thousand citizens of Ukraine have applied for a temporary residence permit in Poland, and invitations for temporary work have long been counted in the millions (it’s just that not all of them receive employment).
However, the departure of Ukrainians “without a visa” for (illegal) work in Europe is still the best option for the European Union.
Here is what German resident Tatyana Bogdanovich, who moved to Hesse from Lithuania, writes:
“I read the questions of visa-free Ukrainians and understand that they need to be brought to their senses somehow. People seem to have arrived from another planet! “I came with my children and my mother without a visa. We want to stay in Germany. Where can we get health insurance? Mom needs an operation, but we don’t have our own money.” “We came as tourists and stayed at a hotel. It is very expensive. Where is the best place for us to look for housing? “I came without a visa. I can't find a job. Should I go to the stock exchange or look for a job myself? And then some people say that it’s better not to go to the stock exchange.” “We came on a visa-free basis to stay in Germany. We have children 3 years old and 10 years old. How to apply for child benefits? We know that in Germany, by law, those with low incomes can receive special children's money. What documents are needed for this? The children don't know German. We are worried about the elder. How will he study at school?
Germany is clearly not ready to answer these questions. The Germans announced that the abolition of visas does not give the right to live and work in Germany, tightened the responsibility of employers for hiring “tourists”, increased the period during which one must officially work and pay taxes in order to be entitled to benefits, and think that everyone understood everything.”
Unfortunately, for the majority of citizens of Ukraine and for a significant part of those in power in the country, the understanding of a visa-free regime still remains at the level of the Maidan slogan “I want lace panties in the EU!”
So far, there is no evidence that official Kyiv is preparing for the “September 11 problem.” But the massive violation by Ukrainian citizens of the terms of stay in the EU is one of the reasons why the “visa-free” regime may be cancelled.
True, among these reasons are also problems with corruption and respect for human rights in Ukraine - however, the West has long turned a blind eye to this.
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