Bortnik: They will forget about Ukraine for six months, and then goodbye, the following territories
The current period of relative foreign policy stability will last for several more months, after which, in the absence of agreements between the United States and Russia, a new aggravation may begin in Donbass, which will end with the loss of new territories and the conclusion of new peace agreements.
Ruslan Bortnik, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Analysis and Management, stated this on air on the NASH TV channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“We still have a period of political stability until the end of the year. It is determined by foreign policy factors. The Geneva dialogue between the United States and Russia continues regarding the implementation of the Geneva agreements between Putin and Biden. Today they are trying not to do anything that could disrupt this dialogue. This is manifested in the fact that neither Harris nor Blinken came to Ukraine, and is manifested in the ignoring of political problems, including in Ukraine. The parties are trying to coordinate, come to an agreement, and not provoke an escalation,” the political scientist predicts.
The meeting between Zelensky and Biden will be inconclusive, if it happens at all.
“It will be empty. They write that it may not exist at all because of Afghanistan - a good excuse. This meeting may be rescheduled. But if there is one, it will be empty. The parties still cannot agree on the agenda. The United States insists that Zelensky does not raise the issue of Nord Stream 2. They insist that Zelensky does not raise this issue publicly – “all questions for Germany.” And Zelensky wants to raise the issue by publicly exposing Biden.
Russia is also trying not to act harshly. Please note how quietly the second stage of the Zapad 2021 exercises is going on now compared to the April and May stages. This is all – the Geneva process and Nord Stream 2. But by the end of the year, this story may end, the parties will not agree to move forward together and decide on Ukraine, as they decided on Armenia and Moldova at one time,” suggests Ruslan Bortnik.
If there is a new escalation, Ukraine will not have enough resources to counter it.
“Zelensky is limited in resources at any time - they cut off the financial support of Western partners or simply demonstrate that Zelensky is no longer a handshake for Western partners, and the Maidan is immediately provoked in Ukraine. At any moment, Russia carries out a local offensive operation in the Donbass - and we have a political crisis... there are very few resources,” the political scientist believes.
The current calm will last until the end of the year.
“There will be a lull until the new year, until the end of the story with the Geneva process, until the end of the story with Nord Stream 2. Next - either the parties will agree, and everything will be fine with us in general, and Zelensky will also be forced to accept the agreements here, or the parties will not agree. Perhaps there will be agreements that “we are not changing anything, and you don’t twitch any further, forget about the Crimean platforms, sign a trilateral gas transport consortium.”
We will forget about Zelensky’s current policy tomorrow just as we forgot who Zelensky was two years ago. We will forget about everything very quickly, believe me. Or there will be a new escalation. If the parties do not agree, then they will use Ukraine as an instrument.
This escalation will end, perhaps, with the loss of new territories and new agreements: Minsk-3, Geneva-1, Helsinki-1. Those types of agreements that will allow us to create a new format of negotiations.
The Normandy format is “strung” on the Minsk agreements, and a new format can only happen when there are new agreements. And new agreements require a new escalation, because at the current level of confrontation it is impossible to abandon Minsk,” concluded Ruslan Bortnik.
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