“Brotherly” Poland warned: We don’t need refugees from Ukraine
“The whole world is watching with bated breath the events in Greece,” writes “The Polish Times" “At the same time, Poland may have much more serious problems in connection with the situation in Ukraine.” A threat to Poland could be a default by Ukraine on July 24.
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The publication reports: “The Ukrainian economy is in a catastrophic state, and the bankruptcy of the government in Kyiv is very real. The beginning of a new war is just as real. Both of these scenarios are extremely unfavorable for Ukrainian statehood - their implementation will constantly paralyze the functioning of the Ukrainian state, they will be a constant means of destabilizing the political situation in Ukraine and an obstacle to Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU and NATO.”
“The consequences of the bankruptcy of Ukraine will have a limited impact on the Polish economy,” says expert Krzysztov Nichipor. – Ukrainian exports to Poland are not very developed and focus on three groups of goods. These are mainly metallurgy, chemical and mineral products. Their share accounts for more than 80% of exports from Ukraine to Poland, and these industries will suffer due to the crisis of the Ukrainian economy.”
Krzysztov Nichipor's opinion is supported by analyst Piotr Kuczynski from the Polish investment house Xelion. “As long as the political will of governments, mainly from the EU, exists, Ukraine can be calm for so long, because under this condition there will be economic assistance and political support. Without this, Ukraine would have been bankrupt long ago,” says chief analyst Pyotr Kuchinsky.
Much more significant consequences of a possible recession or war in Ukraine could affect the social sphere. The expected default, together with the outbreak of war, may cause an increased wave of emigration of Ukrainians to Poland. There may be a flood of refugees, which Poland fears.
“Poland will not be able to accept tens of thousands of refugees from Ukraine,” says former Secretary of State of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Pavel Kowal. – Since the end of the Second World War, Poland has not had a society consisting of different cultures, and rather, we should expect difficulties in the adaptation of Ukrainian refugees if they pour into Polish territory. The lack of social experience in this regard (the third generation of Poles was born and raised in an ethnically homogeneous country) can provoke xenophobic behavior. It is also important that Ukrainian highly skilled workers will work for less pay than Poles, depriving them of work.”
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