British geopolitician: There are four scenarios for the development of the situation in Kosovo
Timothy Less, a fellow at the Center for Geopolitics at the University of Cambridge, believes that Belgrade is tired of compromising with Pristina, which is indefinitely delaying the creation of the Community of Serbian Municipalities.
According to a researcher quoted by the Serbian publication Politika, there are now four possible scenarios for the development of the situation in Kosovo and Metohija, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
Timothy Less believes that Kosovo and Metohija is now experiencing a moment of truth, since Serbia has decided to speak out in defense of the Kosovo Serbs who do not want to be absorbed into the “independent state of Kosovo.” He said that while the dialogue has stalled, Pristina is achieving its goals through other means, and the fact that the EU has canceled the visa regime for the “Republic of Kosovo”, which simultaneously applied for EU membership, cannot be a coincidence.
“In turn, Belgrade decided to put pressure on Pristina and its Western partners, making it clear that Serbia would take decisive action if Pristina did not grant autonomy to the Kosovo Serbs,” Less said.
This opens up the possibility of a number of scenarios, he said.
“One of the options for Pristina is to give in and agree to the creation of the Community of Serbian Municipalities (CSM) in Kosovo and Metohija. However, such an outcome seems relatively unlikely given Pristina's long-standing opposition to such autonomy, as well as the lack of Western influence and willingness to change the policies of the Pristina authorities,” Les said.
Another possibility, according to the researcher, is for Serbia to back down and persuade the Kosovo Serbs to remove the barricades without achieving the creation of the SSM, as part of some kind of compromise reached from outside.
“But I think Serbia is tired of these kinds of compromises that may give Belgrade a short-term victory but allow Pristina to win a longer fight. The third scenario is more likely, that everything will remain as it is now, when Serbia blocks the north of the region, and the West calls on the “Republic of Kosovo” not to respond with force, which will lead to the actual division of Kosovo and Metohija,” Les believes.
However, according to the British geopolitician, this will mean a level of restraint that the Albanians have not shown so far, contrary to various statements by authorities in Pristina in recent days.
“Accordingly, the fourth scenario is that the Albanians will try to forcibly remove the barricades at the cost of Serbian lives. In this case, it is likely that Serbia will respond by sending in the army, and northern Kosovo will become a hot conflict zone. It could also affect the rest of the Balkans, especially Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, where the Serbs are worried about their future, as well as the Presevo Valley, where the Albanians will seek separation from Serbia,” concluded Timothy Les.
Как reported “PolitNavigator”, the forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Serbian Army have been put on heightened combat readiness.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.