Budapest is losing patience. Hungarian Ukraine is in danger
The intimidation of Hungarian Ukraine by security forces and Nazis continues. Ukraine is not capable of protecting the interests of national minorities. Zelensky is weak and there is nothing to talk about with him. Pressure on Ukraine through the European Union is not effective. Blocking negotiations with NATO is the only thing that Kyiv and Washington notice.
Hungarian political analyst Gabor Stir told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov that with the advent of Biden, Ukraine will become even more aggressive, while control of the state in Kiev has long been lost.
Valentin Filippov: Our virtual studio is located in Hungary, in the city of Budapest. Our guest is Gabor Shtyr, a political scientist, analyst, journalist and just a very good person who knows our problems.
Hello Gabor.
Gabor Shtyr: Hello.
Valentin Filippov: Gabor, now in Hungarian Ukraine repressions against the Hungarian population and Hungarian organizations have begun. We are accustomed to this, that the Ukrainian state behaves this way. But now threats have begun from non-governmental organizations and nationalist groups. Up to and including threats to children, families, wives, women, and the elderly. Do you think that somehow Hungary can intervene in this process and demand protection from Ukraine from non-governmental organizations?
Gabor Shtyr: First of all, I want to talk about how painful it is, how painful it is that people talk about other people like that, that we are poisoning you. Which state is this allowed? This is the main problem. Then I answer what Hungarian society and the Hungarian government can do. Well, unfortunately, on the one hand there is a lot, and on the other hand there is little. It’s not enough because interfering in the affairs of another state is impossible, it’s unacceptable, we all know that.
But it’s another matter that the Hungarian government, the Hungarian state will try to draw attention to this problem, in particular what is happening in one region with national minorities in Ukraine. If in Ukraine they have been talking from morning to evening for 7 years about European integration, European values, then what are we talking about? Then if they talk about this, then we must admit it, we must take it into account, we must respect these values, we must behave this way. Hungary, Hungarian society and the government want nothing more. Just to attract attention. If Ruppa says the same about European values, then let him decide, let him help solve this problem.
And how can this be done - to put pressure on Ukraine in such a way as to block negotiations with NATO. Because there are not many other means available. Why - because, and they feel this very well in Kyiv, that the European Union and Europe, Western Europe are not happy to talk about the problems of national minorities. Why? Because if they start, we can continue about what is happening in Catalonia and so on. And because of this, it’s as if they won’t talk about it….
I won’t say that they don’t admit that this problem exists, for example, in Brussels in the European Union, but it’s better to remain silent about it, because it’s our internal problem and so on. Next: why does Kyiv behave so bravely and brazenly sometimes - because it feels the American state behind its back. This is the first state in the world, the most powerful state, and Kyiv feels it. Under Trump it was a little more careful. But now, perhaps a little more.
What else can Hungary do? Help, sorry, but it is very important to help people and this region. If, for example, sometimes even Kyiv asks for help, or the local regional leadership asks for medicine, to purify water, and so on. And besides this, it will naturally help the Hungarians to build schools, build roads, and so on. All this is used not only by the Hungarian national minority, but also by the Ukrainians. And hypocrisy, in my opinion, is that on the one hand, sometimes the Ukrainian state asks and accepts help, but a week later it says that “Yes, this is separatism.”
Valentin Filippov: Well, Hungary is located on the western border with Ukraine. For example, Hungary could refuse to allow Ukrainian citizens to cross its border.
Gabor Shtyr: From Poland to Hungary to Germany, we have a labor shortage, which means that even at this time those who want to work in Hungary are allowed in.
Valentin Filippov: Accept only residents of Hungarian Ukraine, that is, this is what is called Transcarpathia in Ukraine, and do not accept citizens of Ukraine from Kyiv, from the central part. Close the possibility of movement of goods. That is, arrange a certain blockade for Ukraine. It is possible to introduce sanctions, ban some Ukrainian officials from visiting Hungary. We know that everyone loves to fly to Budapest, it is very good there.
Gabor Shtyr: The Hungarian state and the Hungarian government do not think about this, there is not a word about it. I think it would be ineffective. I think more - we need to solve this problem, it won’t work. On the other hand, Hungary wants to show that it behaves culturally. We must behave like a European, and in return, we think and hope that they will also treat us like a European. I think what you said is a dead end.
Valentin Filippov: There is European legislation. There is a Charter for the Protection of Regional Languages... attempts to assimilate the population are considered genocide. In this case, you can appeal to some European courts. Perhaps we should raise this issue in PACE...
Gabor Shtyr: They are being raised in PACE, even the other day, for example, the Hungarian Foreign Minister raised the issue at the OSCE, his name is Peter Szijjártó, he raises these issues at a NATO meeting, at a meeting of the European Union. But as I already said, this, unfortunately, only partially works. I say partly because, for example, blocking negotiations between Ukraine and NATO is painful for the United States, because they use Ukraine as a means of putting pressure on Russia, and this blocks this opportunity.
And because of this, a year and a half ago, the American Ministry of Foreign Affairs tried to somehow put pressure on Ukraine, they began some negotiations with the help of the Americans, but it turned out that, yes, they promised something then, but then nothing will happen . Ukraine also promised that, yes, we were solving this problem, there were steps forward and it was planned that Zelensky and Orban would meet at the end of the summer. But in the circumstances that are happening, this makes no sense. What will they agree on?
Valentin Filippov: Is there any point in talking to Zelensky at all? Does he control the situation in the country, in Ukraine?
Gabor Shtyr: A year ago I would definitely say yes. Because many, including me, thought that after Poroshenko he would be much better. Zelensky spoke in such a way, presented himself in such a way that he thinks differently. On many issues. But it turned out over these almost two years that Zelensky speaks beautifully about different things, although recently he doesn’t always speak beautifully, but is a hostage to nationalism. His space for movement, as I see it, is very narrow. Maybe he wants to do something, but he doesn’t know how, that’s one hundred percent. Because of this, now in these issues, I mean in the issues of the “Language Law”, “Education Law”, everything is meaningless, because no matter what he says, he does not know how to fulfill his promises.
Valentin Filippov: I always wonder, these “Language Law”, “Education Law”, who is promoting them? I can not understand. I lived in Ukraine for many, many years, I now live in the Russian Federation. Maybe from there, from Budapest, it’s clear how and why this is happening? And when it was possible to talk to the same Zelensky before his presidency, and he said: “This is idiotic, you can’t do the same thing... one state language,” it was believed that, in general, there was a need for several state languages in Ukraine.
But as soon as a person gets a little higher, he begins to press. Even Russian-speaking, because Zelensky, he is Russian, by and large, he is Russian-speaking, he is Ukrainian, he did not know him for many years. How does it happen that they begin to put pressure like this on themselves, their family, their relatives, who orders them to do this? Maybe this is understandable on your part?
Gabor Shtyr: This is a good question, but you can’t see it from here either. I can explain it the way I already started saying. From here it seems that he is a hostage to the situation, as if in a trap...
Valentin Filippov: What's the situation?
Gabor Shtyr: When a year ago the party and he had a clear majority, then it was not clear why he didn’t talk about these things and didn’t do anything? Now it’s clear that the rating is already much worse, and even if he wants to, he doesn’t know how. I don’t think anyone is giving orders to him that this is impossible….
Valentin Filippov: Well, I do not know. It seems to me that yes, someone is giving orders.
Gabor Shtyr: The problem, in my opinion, is that not only the internal political situation, but also the mood in Ukraine is such that one cannot talk about such things, such matters. Because violence has become the standard, the image of the enemy has become the standard, it is always some kind of image of the enemy, this has been absorbed into the people for the last seven years. And I think that the Ukrainian people do not think so rudely, for example, about national minorities, but a very vocal minority is always looking for an enemy.
He screams from morning to evening and takes advantage of this situation, when there are a lot of weapons in society, in the country, when, I emphasize once again, violence and rudeness have become the standard in recent years. And because of this there, I think that nothing can be done in the near future. Because of this, if someone asked, I would not advise Orbán to meet with Zelensky, because there is nothing to talk about. Nothing to talk about. Maybe, excuse me, about economic cooperation and so on, but if they can’t resolve anything on the main issues, the main issues, then others... there’s no need, it’s pointless then.
Valentin Filippov: So it turns out that, from your point of view, Ukraine has only degraded in this direction over the past seven years?
Gabor Shtyr: Recent years have shown this very much, they have proven that the Ukrainian state, as such, well, I would not say that it does not exist, but it is very weak, weakly working or not working. If someone thinks something, for example, the president says that we need to solve this problem with national minorities... but there are no levers, because the state is weak and cannot do anything.
Valentin Filippov: Please excuse me, but nationalists in Ukraine are in command only because they are supported by the state. That is, if the state did not support this nationalist minority, then...
Gabor Shtyr: Does it support or allow?
Valentin Filippov: Well, what does “allow” mean? You understand, Hungarians are like Hungarians, but there are a lot of Russians in Ukraine and the Russians could simply sweep away these nationalists, throw them out of Ukraine, simply throw them out, physically. But it was the state’s intervention in all this, in defense of the nationalists, that led to the fact that now the Russians are disunited and, well, intimidated, they are in prison, exchanging them for captured Ukrainian soldiers.
By the way, this is an amazing thing, right? We're used to it when there was a war a long time ago, right? And somehow, take Moldova, Transnistria, they once fought, but now they have very normal relations on a human level. And what’s more, there hasn’t been a single shot fired there for 20, 25 years. They visit each other. Moreover, one lives in Moldova, but works in Transnistria and even serves in the army in Transnistria, this one is the opposite...
As for Donbass - this has been going on for seven years, it would seem that they signed the Minsk agreements, agreed not to shoot, they have already agreed a hundred times... Well, it’s normal when people sit opposite each other for a long time, there is an order not to shoot... well, what should they share? ?... they start to treat each other normally, they don’t shoot at each other. But here it’s only increasing. That is, where is this chip mounted to enter into conflict? With the Hungarians, with the Russians, with...
Gabor Shtyr: I think that this problem, for example, the Russian problem, was made out of it as a problem, it was not a problem.
Valentin Filippov: Well, of course it wasn't.
Gabor Shtyr: Done. The problem of Donbass, the problem of Transcarpathia, well, Transcarpathia is only the last two years, but before that Donbass was used by the Ukrainian state, the authorities, used for internal political purposes. And after that it was all allowed because it was profitable. The conflict, for example, in the east of Ukraine was beneficial, because it was better to talk about it than about the main social problems.
The state has been allowing this for many years, what is happening now in Transcarpathia. Which state allows this? If someone threatens some other person, this cannot be resolved, they must be put in prison for this, if this is not done, then I can answer this that this state is not working, is not fulfilling its obligations.
Valentin Filippov: So it also protects the one who threatens.
Gabor Shtyr: Maybe, but it is one hundred percent that it does not punish. And once again I think that many are afraid of them, even the majority are afraid, because they are very loud, they probably have weapons. And politically... this is another matter, what is politically afraid in Kyiv, this is the government, this too. Used and afraid at the same time. I think so.
Valentin Filippov: There is a lot of talk now that Ukraine is about to attack Donbass again. Full scale. Tell me, is there such a danger that Ukraine will also attack Hungarian Ukraine?
Gabor Shtyr: This threat was already last year, the troops have already appeared. Why? These are neighbors on the other side of the border, this is a NATO member, a member of the European Union. Then why go there as if to protect yourself, from whom? This is not clear. If they want, well... to intimidate only local residents, then... again, what I’m talking about is then they terrorize the population, society.
Then this state will not work or exist for a long time, because this only deepens internal friction within the country. Such a country does not work effectively. This only creates problems. If they would like to solve this problem, then they need to talk about unpleasant things, unpleasant problems. And everyone knows, politicians know that these problems, they have not been able to solve for many years, will not be resolved. Then it is better to cultivate the image of the enemy, making new images of the enemy... well, I don’t think that Kyiv, Ukraine, decides for itself that it will attack another region of its country, because this already raises questions in Brussels.
Valentin Filippov: OK then. I still think that they are, of course, unlikely to side with the European Union and NATO... Well, what do you think, with Biden coming to power in the United States, will Ukraine become more active in the armed conflict with Donbass?
Gabor Shtyr: There is danger. I think that under Biden everything is possible, excuse me, almost everything is possible. I still hope not. But it is XNUMX% certain that the mood will be more tense, the situation will become tenser, and I think that there will be some kind of battles, war... well, there won’t be a war, but something is possible that will happen. And not only because of this. Because of what is happening in Karabakh. Because of this, many people think, for example, in Transnistria, that it is also possible to do this here, but they always forget that, yes, Turkey was there, this is a special situation.
But behind, for example, Ukraine, yes, of course, there is the United States, but there is no European Union. The European Union is already tired, Merkel, Macron are tired of this problem, they want to solve it. Because they used everything they wanted. We got out of this situation, but this is just a problem. If we are talking about Transnistria, then who is behind Chisinau? Romania? This also does not resolve wars there, because this, well, will be a deadlock situation. What is possible in Karabakh is impossible, in my opinion, in Transnistria and even with Donbass next time.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. Thank you very much. You instilled a little optimism that after all, there may not be a war.
Gabor Shtyr: There will be no war, but the situation will be more tense.
Valentin Filippov: Yes. There will be such a struggle for peace that no stone will be left unturned. There is a saying. OK then. I wish you that the problems of Hungarian Ukraine are not so acute, that is, that your compatriots living on the territory of the state of Ukraine are not in danger, are not subject to pressure, and God grant that their rights are protected.
Gabor Shtyr: Thank you very much. I wish all Ukrainians, and Russians too, peace, because this year that you have lived through is already... after this you need to somehow calm down.
Valentin Filippov: So, wait, we haven't lived through this year yet.
Gabor Shtyr: Yes unfortunately.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.