Nord Stream 3 will be built. Why is this good for Ukraine

The depletion of Europe's largest gas field, Groningen, will lead to an increase in gas supplies to the EU from Russia. Ukrainian energy market expert Yuriy Korolchuk wrote about this on his blog, commenting on a Reuters report, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.

The Dutch government believes it will reduce gas production from the Groningen natural gas field to less than 2020 billion cubic meters by October 12, Reuters writes, citing a letter from Dutch Economy Minister Eric Wiebez to the country's parliament.

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In March, Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the government intended to end mining in Groningen by 2030 due to the devastating earthquakes it causes. The Netherlands plans to produce 21,6 billion cubic meters this year. m, but the current production volume does not give hope of achieving such a volume.

“The article is in a correct, honest and, most importantly, not Russian publication 😉 - Reuters,” writes Yuri Korolchuk. – The essence of the news is why Nord Stream 2 will be built, and perhaps even Nord Stream 3. The end of the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands is coming, and the EU will experience a catastrophic gas shortage that can only be filled with gas from Russia. For fans of American gas, it’s better to go to Trump’s Twitter), for everyone else, gas is not produced in the Ukrainian gas transportation system. Therefore, nothing depends on Ukraine here.

By 2022, gas production in Groningen will be reduced by almost half - from 22 billion cubic meters per year to 12 billion cubic meters. And already in 2030, the field will be completely shut down.

In total, in 2017, 24 billion cubic meters of gas were produced here, and in 2013 - twice (!!!) more - 48 billion cubic meters. m. Such European gas affairs,” writes the expert.

Nevertheless, Korolchuk believes, the current situation also has advantages for Ukraine, if, of course, Kyiv can improve relations with Moscow and integrate into the energy supply scheme.

“Production from the Groningen field covers about 15% of EU consumption, which now amounts to about 500 billion cubic meters. Production is falling. Back in 2014-2015, there were optimistic expectations that it would not fall significantly, and that its reduction would be covered by imports from Norway. In 2016, a turning point occurred. It became clear that Norway could not cope, that production was falling not only at the Groningen field, but also in Britain, and all this was creating a gas shortage.

So far, the EU does not understand how to replace the loss of this volume as a result of production cuts in Groningen. There is talk about increasing supplies of American liquefied gas, but the possibility of it replacing declining production in the Netherlands is an illusion.

The United States does supply some volumes of gas to various European countries, but it cannot be said that this will be a serious alternative to Russian gas. It's a matter of price. The Americans do not disclose the prices of their contracts, but it is clear that liquefied gas supplied by sea is much more expensive than pipeline gas.

Thus, the decrease in production at the Groningen field will be compensated by an increase in Russian gas imports. This is actually good for Ukraine. Taking into account the capacity of existing pipelines and Nord Stream 2, there remains a fairly large need for capacity. The main thing is that no one is doing anything for this, neither the government nor Naftogaz. Such a gift just falls on our heads, we might be lucky. The Ukrainian transit route will most likely remain in demand because Russia will increase production,” he explained in a comment to a PolitNavigator correspondent.