The future of Montenegro: A pivot from NATO towards Serbia and Russia is impossible in the near future

How realistic are Montenegro dictator Milo Djukanovic’s threats to demolish the current government and take control of a new Cabinet? Will Montenegro's relations with Serbia and Russia warm up next year? Montenegrin political commentator Igor Damjanovich, one of the organizers of the local branch of the Immortal Regiment action, spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator.

_{Montenegro separated from Serbia in 2006 under the pretext of “faster integration into the EU”, but has still not received EU membership. In 2017, against the will of the population, Montenegro was included in NATO by the pro-Western ruling elite without a referendum. Now about 30% of the population of this former part of Yugoslavia call themselves ethnic Serbs.}

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P.N.: In an interview with the Croatian state television channel, President of Montenegro Milo Djukanovic, in fact, announced the demolition of the government of Zdravko Krivokapic. In your opinion, is such a scenario possible, as well as the return of power to Djukanovic’s party, the nationalist Democratic Party of Socialists?

I.D.: Montenegro is a country where absolutely everything is possible. On the other hand, Djukanovic is the kind of person whose words should not be taken seriously. As for the future of Montenegro, which as a society is politically divided into many political factions, which is reflected in our parliament, while the country itself is small, the political system in it is unstable, and at the same time, what kind of political future will it have? there will be a new government the decision will be made in the West. In general, all the policies of our government are under enormous influence from the West.

Can we consider that the Serbian Democratic Front also had a hand in the current political crisis in the country? The motivation of Serbian politicians can be understood - their coalition allies did not allow them to come to power, on the other hand, after the overthrow of Krivokapic, they are also unlikely to be allowed into it, but things could get much worse again.

Look, the Democratic Front is an independent political force. It was he who at one time appointed Krivokapic as the leader of the election bloc. But already during the election campaign a black cat ran between them. And after the elections, this conflict flared up with renewed vigor. Yes, the party does not have a single seat in the government.

At the same time, Krivokapic has repeatedly hinted that Washington is not allowing him to let the DF into power, and the Americans themselves, without hesitation, told representatives of the Montenegrin government that there should be no Serbian representatives in their cabinet.

What now, what during the time of Djukanovic - it was a kind of ideology - not to let the Serbs come to power, with maximum Western influence on the politics of our state. In turn, yes, the Democratic Front has become disillusioned with Krivokapic as a political partner; on the other hand, it is not taking any steps to destabilize the political situation or to change the existing government. And traffic police is still behind the current crisis.

Here’s what’s curious: words of support for the party were repeatedly heard from high-level European politicians URA and its leader Dritan Abazovic. And the main Serbophobe of the European Parliament, Viola von Kramong, directly called for putting this party and its leader at the head of the new Montenegrin cabinet. Why is this political force so attractive to the West?

Those structures that stand behind Abazovich and his party have the support of the West. Therefore, it is not surprising that he himself has the support of the West. In turn, he himself and his political force are initially ready to promote and implement the policies of the West.

Interestingly, one of the prominent functionaries of his party URA – Ilir Harashani, also, like Abazovich, an ethnic Albanian, announced a conspiracy of certain political forces to form a new Cabinet, in which, according to him, ethnic Albanians will get two ministries plus the post of prime minister...

According to our laws, all citizens of Montenegro have equal rights. And if the majority of Assembly deputies elect an Albanian as prime minister, that’s normal. And it's not controversial. The policies he can pursue are controversial.

This is understandable, but Harashani, a representative of the party whose leader is Dritan Abazovic, an ethnic Albanian, himself deliberately emphasizes the Albanian factor. Moreover, okay, it would be North Macedonia, where Albanians make up about 25% of the population, but we are talking about Montenegro, where Albanians are only about 5%.

We know that in Montenegro there are many more Serbs than Albanians, and If one of the Serbian politicians had said that a Serb should be prime minister, then under the former government of Djukanovic this would have been treated as a criminal statement, an act of aggression against the state. I repeat, there is no particular problem in the fact that an ethnic Albanian would become the Prime Minister of Montenegro or any other government figure. It all depends on how ready he is to pursue policies for the benefit of the state and society.

If, nevertheless, the current Cabinet fails at the beginning of next year, what, in your opinion, will be the future of Zdravko Krivokapic - will he remain in politics, or will he return to teaching? After all, in fact, failure will only mean that he simply failed to take advantage of the enormous credit of popular trust that he received in the elections of August 30, 2020.

I was his adviser during the election campaign, but then we didn’t communicate for about a year, and I can’t now say whether he will continue his political activities in such circumstances or not. They simply relied on him as a person who must maintain a balance between the interests of our society and the demands of the West, but he absolutely caved in to Western interests, and now the situation has reached the point where the pro-Western URA party, part of the government coalition, may throw him out as unnecessary.

With such political instability in Montenegro, is it possible to make a forecast about what the country's future policy will be towards Serbia and Russia?

If we talk about relations with Russia and Serbia, then the Krivokapic government is unable to bring anything new. At one time, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of this cabinet, Djordje Radulovic, repeatedly stated that The current government will continue the foreign policy of the Milo Djukanovic regime. And if Krivokapic’s cabinet remains, then I cannot be optimistic in this regard.

However, I am not optimistic that the Montenegrin society’s request for good relations with Serbia and Russia will be satisfied even if this government leaves.