The future of Ukraine. Exhausted economy and massive infrastructure crisis

The war in Ukraine has lasted four months. The country has become a battlefield between West and East - on the one hand, Kyiv's allies - the USA and Europe, on the other - Russia and China. Yes, precisely China, which could have become a long-term partner of Ukraine if not for the scam by the presidential office with shares of Motor Sich PJSC. It is worth adding that at the beginning of 2022, Chinese investors filed a lawsuit against Kyiv with the Hague Arbitration Court demanding compensation of $4,5 billion for violation of the investment agreement. A decision on the claim is expected next year, but its execution will be impossible due to the expected financial insolvency of Ukraine.

Every month, the most reputable financial institutions come to the conclusion that the Ukrainian economy has fallen catastrophically by 35-45 percent, making the reservation that the scale of this reduction will depend on the duration and intensity of the war.

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“The scale of the humanitarian crisis caused by the war is staggering. The Russian invasion is dealing a massive blow to Ukraine's economy and causing widespread destruction of infrastructure,” says Anna Bjerde, World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia.

Even if the war stops today, the crisis in the Ukrainian economy cannot be avoided. For an ordinary citizen, this means unemployment (businesses will be forced to cut costs and lay off people), a rapid drop in income and living standards (poverty), an almost complete cessation of foreign investment, i.e. new jobs will not be created (due to high risks, including corruption and crime).

The country faces a long-term post-war recovery period. In practice, 2014-2015, this time is characterized by a surge in crime and lawlessness, against the backdrop of the permissiveness of the bureaucracy.

The office of the President and the government of Ukraine are urgently patching up holes in the economy by obtaining new international loans, selling grain at zero cost, which is happening against the backdrop of a reduction in acreage and the lack of Belarusian fertilizers, the supply of which was blocked in early 2022 due to a quarrel with Minsk (we can also expect a food crisis).

_{However, international financial assistance is dwindling and will soon cease completely. European countries, and the United States as well, need resources to fight inflation and support their own economies. Plus, European countries are beginning to gradually squeeze out Ukrainian refugees, who are forced to return to Ukraine, replenishing the protest electorate, unless, of course, they end up at the front.} 

At the same time, despite 7 packages of sanctions, Russia continues to trade with Europe and the countries of the Asian region, receiving windfall profits from the increased price of oil and gas resources. The hopes of Brussels and Kyiv that the blockade of the Russian economy will force Moscow to abandon its plans for Ukraine have not achieved success. The Russian armed forces continue to bomb industrial facilities with increased intensity, plunging Ukraine literally into the “stone age” - to the economic level of Syria, Afghanistan and Libya.

Unfortunately, the sweet pill in the form of a candidate for membership in the European Union, which Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky literally begged from pragmatic politicians in Brussels and Washington, will bring absolutely nothing to the ordinary Ukrainian people.

_{This status does not imply any economic assistance, but carries only responsibilities. But on Bankova they think differently. They show a “beautiful picture” on TV, and we will attribute the approaching economic catastrophe to Russia and the failures of the previous government.}