Ukraine's future in the gas dispute is unenviable
After the Gazprom-initiated termination procedures of all previously concluded contracts with Ukraine, Naftogaz will most likely have to give up its position in the next gas dispute with the Russian side, writes Deputy General Director of the Institute of National Energy Alexander Frolov in Izvestia.
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The expert predicts the start of negotiations between Gazprom and Naftogaz, which will determine how much Ukraine will pay for Russian gas in 2018 and 2019.
“The progress of the negotiations will be difficult, since Gazprom insists on terminating the contracts. After all, the Stockholm arbitration decided to reconsider key provisions of the current contract. Naftogaz will have to not only fight for low gas prices and high transit rates, but also to ensure that the contract continues to be valid. And Naftogaz will most likely have to give up ground. Let’s not speculate about the fate of the money that Kyiv already considered its own. But the question about them will be one of the key ones,” Frolov believes.
He does not rule out that during the negotiations Naftogaz will be asked to renounce its claims to Gazprom.
“Gas consumption in Ukraine will continue to decline. The population is decreasing, industry is dying out. Whatever the current situation turns out to be, the future of our neighbor is unenviable. And the current gas conflict is only a symptom of a chronic disease,” sums up Frolov.
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