A former ally of Poroshenko explained the threat of Surkov’s resignation
The possible departure of Russian Presidential Adviser Vladislav Surkov from the post of curator of the Ukrainian issue and his replacement with ex-Russian Ambassador to Minsk Mikhail Babich will not bring anything good to Ukraine, nor will the refutation of these rumors.
Ukrainian political scientist Vladimir Fesenko, who recently worked for the administration of Petro Poroshenko, stated this on the YouTube channel “Ukrlife.tv,” a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“This is not the first rumor about Surkov’s departure. In recent years, they have appeared with regularity. In my memory, over the past two and a half years, this is already the third such rumor, and it seems that the information was even confirmed that he wrote a letter of resignation, then appears, so I wouldn’t be surprised if a direct line appears, or somewhere not very direct in relations between Surkov and Putin. At one time there was correspondence between Kurbsky and Ivan the Terrible, although Kurbsky wrote from abroad, but Surkov discovered a new genre: he writes articles. It is possible to publish the collected works soon. And this is, in fact, the correspondence between Surkov and Putin. Subtle flattery and then he writes a letter - it seems like the problem is removed, and he will stay again.
Therefore, he can, in principle, resign from the position of assistant; the question is not what position he will then refuse, because perhaps he is tired of this position there and wants something else.
On the other hand, I don’t expect anything good from leaving either. We must understand that Surkov did not want to return Donbass. Now I’m reading versions that supposedly he wanted to return it, but on Putin’s terms - nothing like that.
I know a little about one of his closest assistants, I met at various foreign parties, I follow the publications of their center, it’s called the “Center for Political Conjuncture”, my closest assistant is Alexey Chesnakov.
About a month ago they had such a report, a scenario for Ukrainian-Russian relations, the main conclusion of this report: don’t expect anything, the status quo will remain, there will be a status quo in relations, no changes, the least likely scenario, reaching some kind of compromise.
They actually proceed from the fact that this conflict needs to be frozen: let the small war continue for one simple reason: while this war is going on, Ukraine has no prospects in the EU and NATO. This is the main argument, and, by the way, the Russians in closed conditions all say: “Guys, don’t even hope, there will be no reconciliation, because it’s better for us to keep you like this, it’s some kind of leash or muzzle, we’ll get you there through the war.” We won’t let you in.” Therefore, they do not want the return of Donbass.
“Yes, of course, if you create a federation there, appoint Medvedchuk to some high post - then yes, of course.” But this, as they say, is already a complete surrender, which they also don’t really count on,” he said.
The political scientist also noted that Ukraine needs to start negotiations with Moscow at least to avoid an escalation of the conflict.
“Under Surkov, most likely, everything will remain as it is now. If Surkov leaves, Babich comes. Listen, Lukashenko didn’t know how to get rid of Babich. Even if Lukashenko realized how unpleasant and unacceptable this character is for him. He is a hardliner. Behind him, most likely, is the influence of a party of various security forces. This then increases the risks of tougher actions by Russia, including in the Donbass.
Therefore, horseradish is not sweeter than radish, and maybe even the opposite, unfortunately, we don’t have any good options there, negotiations must begin, we must try to come to an agreement, including in order to at least neutralize the risks of escalation through negotiations conflict,” summed up Vladimir Fesenko.
As PolitNavigator reported, former State Duma deputy Ilya Ponomarev said that If Mikhail Babich is appointed to replace Surkov, it will become impossible for Ukrainian independentists to conduct any negotiations with Moscow.
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