The Central Bank of Russia told what will happen if oil falls to $35
Russia's leadership has developed an action plan for three possible scenarios in a situation where the economy is still heavily dependent on oil prices.
Thus, the Central Bank of Russia has calculated a program in case of fluctuations in fuel prices from 75 to 35 dollars per barrel.
The head of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, stated this during a report in the State Duma, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
According to her, with oil prices at $75, GDP growth will be 1,5-2% next year.
“The Bank of Russia’s base scenario is that annual inflation will accelerate to 5-5,5% in 19 and return to our target of around 20% in 4,” Nabiullina said.
“The Bank of Russia also calculated the risk scenario. It includes significant capital outflows in 19 due to possible worsening sanctions and capital outflows in emerging markets. We calculated this risk scenario when oil prices fell to $35 per barrel.
This does not mean that we should consider this scenario probable, but we must understand how the situation will develop in a negative case.
According to our assessment, in this scenario, a recession is likely in 19, but in 20 the economy will begin to grow again. A short-term surge in inflation to double-digit values is also possible, but we have the tools to cope with this,” Nabiullina assured.
As PolitNavigator reported, current world energy prices allow the Russian Federation to develop.
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