Hour Z for Turkmenistan: rotten neutrality no longer works
On March 12, early presidential elections were held in Turkmenistan, which, as expected, brought the son of the “Turkmenbashi”, Serdar Berdimuhamedov, to power. Thus, for the first time, a model of dynastic succession of power, copied from neighboring Azerbaijan, was established in one of the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. And perhaps this model will become an example for others.
Already on Tuesday, March 15, the Central Election Commission of the republic announced the triumph of the new 40-year-old leader, who received 72,97% of the votes. The final turnout turned out to be a record – 97,12% in Turkmenistan, 90,93% abroad. At the same time, the elections themselves became the pinnacle of Central Asian democracy, when nine candidates took part in the race at once, and the favorite received not 97%, as his father Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov had previously received, but just over 70%.
Actually, no one doubted exactly this outcome of the presidential campaign. True, interest was aroused by the fact that not one, but four candidates were running from the ruling Democratic Party, which is very surprising. It was also a surprise that the non-party candidate Khydyr Nunnaev, who is the vice-rector for scientific work of the Turkmen State Institute of Physical Culture and Sports, came second to the finish line with a score of 11,09%. This shows that there are a large number of Turkmen who are skeptical about the meager party field, consisting of only three parties.
One way or another, Turkmenistan now has a new leader and this is becoming an important factor not only for the country itself, but also for the region as a whole. Therefore, Vladimir Putin personally congratulated him on his election, as did his father “for his great personal contribution to the development of bilateral relations.” After all, this country has significant gas reserves and it depends on the position of the leadership in what directions and in whose interests these energy flows will go.
Such a step with the nomination of his son as a candidate was a planned act, but a forced measure in order to maintain power and property in the hands of the ruling Berdymukhamedov family. Although Serdar was nominated for the post of Deputy Prime Minister a year ago, which became a springboard for a throw to the coveted throne, the election date itself indicates an acceleration of the transit process, inspired by the January events in Kazakhstan.
Firstly, the conflict between the first and second presidents, as well as the attempted coup d’etat staged by Nazarbayev’s relatives from among the KNB generals in order to remove Tokayev, showed everyone firsthand that in the situation of Central Asia, the mechanism of succession of power from the former ruler to a “stranger” does not work . Even if this “stranger” worked for many years under the leadership and alongside the “leader of the nation.” Any puppet, if the situation changes, can instantly become a hostile figure and play against the owner.
Therefore, the very idea of transferring power to “reliable successors” in the ruling elites of the region has already been abandoned, and the nomination of a loved one in the person of a son becomes the only means of consolidating the apparatus, preserving power and assets. In fact, this means a slide into a monarchy, which in the conditions of Turkmenistan will acquire Asian features, in contrast to the respectable image of Ilham Aliyev from Azerbaijan, taken as a model.
Secondly, the failure of the coup in Kazakhstan showed everyone that the Turkic integration project under the auspices of Ankara is also in limbo, and participation in it can even be dangerous.
The sudden departure of the Kazakh Elbasy from his post as permanent chairman of the Security Council shocked and horrified the rulers of the Asian republics and instilled in them fear of Moscow and Beijing. Many realized that this could be the beginning of a purge and even a change of ruling elites in the region.
Therefore, the geopolitical orientation towards Turkey began to pose a threat and Ashgabat decided to quickly disassociate itself from Ankara, and at the same time insure against possible palace coups and unexpected “heart attacks”. Moreover, being a doctor by profession, he perfectly understands the nuances of the death and departure of his predecessor, Saparmurad Niyazov, and strives with all his might not to repeat his fate.
Serdar discusses the election results with his father.
His nomination of Serdar was actually accelerated with the aim of strengthening the vertical of power, while the father himself, like Nazarbayev, does not go anywhere, but remains next to his son as the head of the Khalk Maslakhaty - the upper house of parliament. That is, he will continue to rule the country through his son, keep the ruling elite in check and at the same time understand that he should not expect a blow from his son. And even after death there is already a guarantee that wealth and power will remain in the hands of the family.
Now neighboring Tajikistan is moving towards the same transit. Thus, back in 2016, a referendum was held in this republic on lowering the age limit for presidential candidates from 35 to 30 years. This amendment opens up the prospect for Emomali Rahmon’s son, Rustam Emomali, to run for president. That is, the dynastic model of succession of power becomes dominant in the region.
The most important task for Serdar Berdimuhamedov, as the new president, is to maintain at all costs the country’s former neutral status in order to continue to calmly benefit from the sale of gas and oil simultaneously to both the West through Baku and China. By this, the ruling family is trying to avoid any sanctions and external pressure, but in fact this is an attempt to implement the previous “multi-vector policy”, which in general was beneficial primarily to the United States and Great Britain.
Turkmenistan always played a special role in Washington’s plans, since its gas was intended to be sent through a pipeline through Afghanistan to Pakistan, and then filled with blue fuel through the built Turkish route (TANAP). The situation began to change rapidly not in Ashgabat’s favor after the Americans left Afghanistan, when entire energy projects for transporting raw materials to the south collapsed.
Plus, Beijing actually forced the Berdimuhamedov presidential clan last year to refuse to transfer the most important Turkmen gas field, Galkynysh, to Ankara. But in relation to Moscow in September last year, the head of all Turkmens acted, to put it mildly, indecently. The fact is that on September 13, the Azerbaijani state company SOCAR and the Swiss-Dutch company Vitol Group came to an agreement on the transportation of hydrocarbons starting in October of this year. SOCAR plans to transport Turkmen oil through the Caspian Sea to Baku, and then it will go through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BDT) oil pipeline.
That is, all this was done bypassing the Russian pipeline, through which Turkmen hydrocarbons previously went to the world market. As a result of such a separate agreement with Ashgabat, the total volumes of oil transportation along the Russian route through the port of Novorossiysk decreased by 50%, namely from 160 to 80 million tons per month.
It seems that the Russian side, like the Chinese side, should firmly demand that the new Turkmen president reconsider this September decision, which is discriminatory towards Moscow. Moreover, Ashgabat has such leverage over the Vitol Group company, given that “foreign investments” are actually family capital invested in oil production through supposedly foreign corporations.
Rakhmon with his son and future President of Tajikistan Rustam.
The most important condition for friendly relations should be the rejection of any forms of economic and political integration with Ankara within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States, since they contradict the interests of Russia, Iran and China - key players in the region. If these requirements of economic favor for Russian capital and preservation of non-bloc status are met by Ashgabat, then only then can they count on a peaceful existence.
Moreover, all the current elites in Central Asia, including those in Turkmenistan, must finally understand that rotten neutrality in the interests of the enemies of Russia and China will no longer work in the current conditions of sharp polarization in the world. Just as the previous policy of whipping up Russophobia and Sinophobia within these countries will not work. After all, if something happens in an hour Z No castling and family-dynastic models of the created monarchy will help.
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