How will the “counter-offensive” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces turn out? Three scenarios were announced in Kyiv
Vadim Moskalenko)
Kiev has several scenarios for ending an armed confrontation with the Russian Federation, two of which provide for an unenviable future for both an already bloodless Ukraine and an economically and energy-depleted Europe.
Kiev political scientist Yuri Romanenko, who is wanted in the Russian Federation for calls to kill Russian journalists, stated this on his YouTube channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“I think that the situation with this counter-offensive, which everyone is already announcing, will become clearer, in the end, in the next few weeks, it will be implemented, in one form or another, or not. And, based on whether it will be implemented, scenarios will arise.
I see three scenarios for the coming year.
The first is that when the counteroffensive is implemented, it will be successful and will record a situation in which Russia will see a threat for itself, that it urgently needs to mobilize, but it does not have time to launch this mobilization or has time, but still not as massive as in Ukraine.
If Ukraine inflicts some serious defeat on Russia and pushes it away from Kherson, in some other directions, then Russia will have a motive to try to negotiate in order to gain time. Either conclude a temporary truce, or reach a peace agreement according to the Rasmussen formula, when Ukraine returns everything, with the exception of ORDLO and Crimea. The status will be fixed: what Ukraine controls will then become a member of NATO, what remains with Russia will be left for later. I don’t know what the status is,” Romanenko reasoned.
The second scenario is the worst.
“The second and worst scenario is that the Russians do not stop fighting in the hope that a better situation for them will mature over the winter, which they will provoke through energy strikes and attacks on the infrastructure of Ukraine. That is, they will create a situation where Europe will weaken, a lot of problems will be created in the economy over the winter due to high gas and energy prices, and Europe will develop a position to quickly end the war. This will form a negotiating position in which Russia will have much stronger options and will impose its own scenario,” the Ukrainian analyst suggested.
And the third version:
“The third option is more profitable for us - if we get through the winter normally, despite the blows and energy tricks from Russia. Russia is accumulating energy reserves over the winter and is trying to carry out the second phase of the invasion. Ukraine does not provide the opportunity to realize this advantage, and it becomes clear that over the next six months - spring - summer 2023 - nothing will work out for them.
Again, a window of opportunity to enter a negotiating position is being formed. Moreover, Russia, in this case, due to the fact that the sanctions pressure will be aggravated, it will have completely different, in terms of opportunities, to wage a long-term war, because all the experts say that it has economic reserves for 15 months,” – summed up Romanenko.
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