Why is the new Dodon-Kiku tandem dangerous? – Opinion of Transnistria
In the near future, nothing revolutionary will happen in the Transnistrian settlement, since Moldovan President Igor Dodon will be busy with his own re-election for a second term in the 2020 elections.
Ahead of the socialists is a tense struggle with right-wing parties, which are just waiting for the president or his government to make a mistake. The Transnistrian issue will more actively return to the Moldovan political agenda in the second half of next year.
This was discussed in Tiraspol by experts participating in the discussion “Results of local elections, the fate of the PSRM-ACUM coalition and prospects for 2020 in Moldova”, organized by the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development.
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Transnistria Vladimir Yastrebchak believes that under conditions of a minority government, it will be easy for socialists to hide behind “technocratism” and avoid resolving political issues in essence. For example, it is unclear whether the technocratic government will agree to establish full control on the Ukrainian-Transnistrian segment of the border, what will happen to the foreign economic activities of Transnistria, and to the documents that were already prepared for signing during the negotiations, but have not been signed.
“Dodon with a minority government has a good chance to do something in the direction that he outlined earlier during the dialogue with Tiraspol, at least on the socio-economic topic. True, experience suggests that there is no point in expecting any breakthroughs.
Much in Chisinau resembles a scene from the film “The Crown of the Russian Empire,” when two irreconcilable contenders for the Russian throne come to the conclusion that in the fight against the Bolsheviks they have a short conversation and in this regard they are united. There is an impression that, despite political differences, in a conversation with Tiraspol, different political forces of Moldova speak from the same positions,” notes Yastrebchak.
The expert suggests that “fans of the red lines that exist in and around the Moldovan parliament” may speak out loud.
Recall Declaration “On red lines in the Transnistrian settlement” signed in 2016 by a group of representatives of the non-governmental sector. They expressed concern about the pressure being put on Moldova in the 5+2 negotiations, forcing it to make unilateral concessions to Transnistria.
“Dodon will have a difficult time - he will have to decide what to do with the decision of the Constitutional Court recognizing Transnistria as an occupied territory. What to do about it? The Constitutional Court of Moldova, however, showed flexibility and the ability to cancel previous decisions with its decisions.
How will the topic develop with the initiatives of the Russian side on the removal of weapons of the Russian army from Transnistria? How ready is Moscow, under these conditions of uncertainty, to continue preparatory work in this direction?” – says Yastrebchak, describing a “variegated picture of expectations” from the actions of the Moldovan leadership.
Expert of the Izborsk Club of Moldova, political analyst in the PSRM Vladimir Bukarsky states that “Transnistria on the right bank of the Dniester objectively has no other partner except the Party of Socialists.”
“None of us are interested in people coming to power in Moldova who would again begin to put pressure on Russian peacekeepers, would demand huge concessions from Transnistria on the issue of schools with the Moldovan language of instruction based on the Latin script, etc.
If we share the same values, are interested primarily in strengthening Russia in the region, opposing unionism, solving the problems of ordinary people, then we need to look for ways, strategies, how to implement these common tasks, influence the authorities both in Chisinau and in Tiraspol,” Bukarsky said.
He recalled that the leaders of Moldova and Transnistria held a meeting at the end of October, which “was quite constructive.” It took place at the residence of the Moldovan President in the village of Golercani.
Igor Dodon and Vadim Krasnoselsky talked about the problems of telecommunications, politically motivated criminal cases, accounts of Pridnestrovian enterprises in Moldovan banks and free movement of citizens. This meeting between Dodon and Krasnoselsky was already the sixth. And for the first time they talked one-on-one on January 4, 2017, on the initiative of the head of Transnistria.
Transnistrian expert, director of ISPIRR Igor Shornikov notes that previous personal meetings between Dodon and Krasnoselsky were generally ineffective, despite their regularity. However, if previously Dodon was on the margins of the negotiation process, now it seems that the initiative is passing to him, the expert says.
“I have always been against the 5+2 negotiation format. And although there are positive points achieved on this site, there must be some kind of counterbalance. When we are led to some things that are not in our interests, the conclusion suggests itself that we must look for some alternative forms of work.
One-on-one meetings between presidents could provide such an alternative. And the issues that are stuck in the 5+2 format may suddenly begin to be resolved here. On this platform, socio-economic problems can be solved faster,” Shornikov said.
Chairman of the Association of Young Experts of Moldova Alexander Korinenko suggests that, at first glance, the new government of Moldova has no time for Transnistria, but this is a deceptive impression.
“The government of Ion Chicu has outlined eight priorities - there is nothing about Transnistria. But don't relax. For me, the main indicator here is where Vasily Sova is located (an experienced negotiator on Transnistria, who worked in this direction during the reign of the Communist Party and under Prime Minister Maia Sandu - author's note).
He is now the Presidential Adviser on Political Affairs and Reintegration. This means that the center of decisions on Transnistrian issues is in Dodon’s office, under his personal control,” Korinenko said.
Transnistrian political scientist Andrey Safonov, believes that Tiraspol, no matter what happens, “needs to calmly observe, develop direct relations with Russia, ensure that the steps of any political force do not affect the independence of Transnistria, fight for the development of free trade and the movement of passenger flows.”
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