How Poland threatens Belarus
Something incomprehensible and unpleasant is happening on the western borders of Belarus. There is loud saber rattling in the Grodno region. Large-scale military exercises have begun - Lukashenko arrives at the training ground, and then at the site of the 6th Separate Guards Mechanized Brigade, gathers security forces and says that for the first time in 25 years he has brought the main units of the Armed Forces to full combat readiness and transferred troops to the western direction. The Belarusian president instructed the security forces to protect the “western pearl centered in Grodno” and take the most stringent measures to protect territorial integrity.
What was it? Are we, on the eve of the war, and under the guise of post-election protests and confusion, the Poles can invade us and take Grodno under the guise of a “Belarusian Guaido in a skirt”? Doesn't sound very plausible. Firstly, the topic of the Venezuelan scenario is no longer relevant for Belarus. The European Union has already officially refused to recognize Tikhanovskaya as president, and other countries have not even thought about this. And she herself recalls plans to become president less and less and speaks more about the need for new elections.
We are shown quotes from Polish media and politicians about plans to “return” Grodno, it seems that even Duda himself said something like that. But they say this regularly in Poland. “Krasy khoskhodnie” is the favorite phantom sore of the Poles, which they remember with enviable constancy, without hiding it at all. Efforts are being made to return the Kres, but not on a military level. The game is subtle, smart and long-lasting.
Of course, I do not have access to the secrets of military intelligence and I can only guess about what is happening, but I have great difficulty believing in the reality of the military threat from Poland. Still, in this case, we are talking not just about a possible border conflict between two states, but about a direct military clash between NATO and the CSTO, which could potentially escalate into a world war. The most likely outcome of such a conflict is another partition of Poland - Russia has already guaranteed support for Belarus, but whether the West will seriously agree to fight for Polish ambitions is a big question.
There will be no war with Poland. At least for the foreseeable future. The risks are too great. But this does not mean that there is no threat from Poland to Belarus. Recent events have confirmed that these threats are serious. Consider the fact that the telegram channels Nexta and Nexta.live are based in Warsaw and have close ties with the Polish intelligence services. These are the same channels that played the role of an information and propaganda center for protesters during the clashes, and through which direct instructions to protesters were and are being disseminated, including instructions regarding attacks on security forces. Through these channels alone, a tremendous amount of work has been done to destabilize Belarus, and this is only one of the tools.
Poland is a state that throughout its history really wanted to be an empire, but had few opportunities to be one. She did this best in the 16th and 17th centuries, when, through a dynastic marriage, she united with the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and continued expansion into Russian lands, once even occupying Moscow. The history of this empire ended ingloriously with three divisions at the end of the 18th century.
What did Polish domination give to the inhabitants of Belarusian lands? Forced Polishization, Catholicization, ban on teaching and printing in Russian (it was not yet called Belarusian at that time) language, the word bydlo, common for Polish lords to call Belarusian peasants.
During the interwar period, Poland received part of the Belarusian lands for 20 years. And again, Polishing, Catholicization, a total reduction in teaching in Belarusian.
Unlike Russia, Poland has always strived to unify the population on its territory, turning it into a mono-ethnic space. She has not deviated from this principle even now.
Distributing “Pole cards” to hundreds of thousands of residents of Belarus is nothing more than the implantation of Polish identity on Belarusian lands. Purposeful work with the Belarusian opposition also yielded results - most of this opposition is nostalgic for the “Polish hour” and sees the future of their country in an alliance with Warsaw.
Those of the oppositionists who were younger also received, at the expense of the Polish budget, an education at Polish universities under the “Kalinowski program”. The Belsat TV channel and a number of radio stations broadcast in Belarus at the expense of Polish taxpayers. Processing has been going on for decades.
Now Belarusian “patriotic” oppositionists are promoting “Intermarium” in every possible way. In fact, this is an imperial Polish project, in which the Baltic states, Belarus and Ukraine are destined to play the role of a periphery, from where the imperial center will draw resources, and gradually reshape it itself to its own standards.
The Belarusian nationalists, and then the officialdom, frightened us for too long with the “Russian hybrid threat”, but did not notice the threat in the opposite direction, which, as it “suddenly” turned out, turned out to be much more real. I hope the Belarusian leadership will benefit from the lesson learned.
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