In two years, Putin’s regime will collapse, nationalists or Kadyrov will come to power - sociologists
Moscow - Kyiv, February 5 (PolitNavigator, Mikhail Stamm) - The Russians supported the annexation of Crimea and opposition to the West, but by the summer Putin’s support will drop significantly, and in a year and a half to two years the regime in Russia may fall, after which nationalists or Kadyrov will come to power . Such forecasts were made by sociologists at the Levada Center conference following the results of 2014.
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Director of the Levada Center Lev Gudkov noted that the annexation of Crimea caused a powerful rise in consolidation and the resuscitation of patriotic sentiments, which replaced the long-term decline in the level of trust in the authorities before that. And now almost 80% of Russians say that the country is regaining its position as a great power, Gudkov emphasizes. This fully meets public demands for a way out of the economic crisis and restoration of living standards (75% of Russians) and restoration of the status of a great power (65%), quote "Vedomosti".
After the fall of the ruble, there was a decline in euphoria, but this had almost no effect on support for Putin and the anti-Western course, Gudkov says. According to him, mass consciousness will for now consolidate around anti-Western sentiments, but by the summer, support for the authorities will drop significantly.
Political scientist from the Carnegie Moscow Center Nikolai Petrov believes that the government will continue to feed people with rhetoric for some time, and then move on to repression, because otherwise it will collapse. Petrov gives her one and a half to two years to exist. Petrov does not undertake to predict who will take power in Russia after Putin. So far he sees three such forces - Russian nationalists, special services and Ramzan Kadyrov.
Sociologist Alexey Levinson says that now in Russia the relationship between the government, the people and the West has changed. Putin distanced himself from the West and “seems to be saying that there is a formal world, which is based on rights and compliance with the law, and there is a world of human relations, based on helping one’s own.” However, 84% of Russians, under certain circumstances, can support the West and its “fifth column” in the Russian Federation, the sociologist is sure.
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