What to do with Ukraine: Squeeze the fascists without looking back or carefully look for allies?
Should we crush the fascist regime in Kyiv without looking back, even if this threatens a large-scale armed conflict, or choose the path of searching for forces loyal to Russia inside Ukraine? A PolitNavigator columnist who was forced to leave his native Odessa argued about this Valentin Filippov and Moscow political scientist Oleg Bondarenko.
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Valentin Filippov: Hello Oleg.
Oleg Bondarenko: Hello Valentine.
Valentin Filippov: I would like to start with a rhetorical question. What is better: peace with Ukraine or peace without Ukraine? But, in this regard, another important question arises. Who is Ukraine in general?
Oleg Bondarenko: You know, you need to understand that peace, as you know, is always better than war. Even a bad peace is better than a good war. So here it is necessary to separate the current Ukraine with its regime, with Poroshenko, with all these punitive battalions, with the murderers who sit in the Verkhovna Rada, from Ukraine as a given, as a territory, with more than 40 million people. And this population is not going anywhere. This also needs to be understood.
Therefore, by and large, globally, there is a simple choice. Either we understand the inevitability of war with the fraternal Ukrainian people, of whom there are 40 million, more than 40 million. Or we understand that yes, now Ukrainians are ruled by bastards, moroders, scoundrels, bandits, murderers, but the Ukrainian people, after all, cannot bear full responsibility for these people. And then we understand that we need to restore relations with Ukraine, with the Ukrainian people, of course.
Valentin Filippov: Here I live with a Ukrainian passport. Did we spoil our relationship or not?
Oleg Bondarenko: No, we did not spoil our relationship. But, you live here, and Ukrainian propaganda does not affect you. And those people live there, and Ukrainian propaganda mainly affects them, for the most part. They are hostages of this propaganda, they are its victims. They need to be saved from this propaganda. And they need to be treated for this propaganda, of course, given some kind of antidote.
But, you have to understand, this may take some time. Because the most dangerous thing is that now in Ukraine, before our eyes, a generation is growing, and I would say generations of Russian-haters, the wildest, animal haters of Russia, from young to old, from children who study at school at the age of 10 to 30- summer idiots who go to the ATO.
And remember there, it means he sold Rolls-Royce and left to fight, right?
Valentin Filippov: Well, yes, there were such stories.
Oleg Bondarenko: Twenty-five years approximately, up to 30 years of generational cross-section: from 10 to 40 years of people who are very susceptible to this propaganda. I’m not saying that the older generation is not susceptible to it, they are also susceptible. But the older generation has a clear antidote in the form of personal experience of life in the Soviet Union.
Valentin Filippov: But we had a situation in 2014 when the people rebelled against the junta, at least in the entire South-East, they rebelled precisely for the reason that the junta, first of all, tried to pursue an anti-Russian policy. And this uprising was massive. Yes, it did not receive support either from the large business elites or from the Russian Federation.
But, apparently, Russia has quite a lot of supporters. Yes, this uprising was crushed almost everywhere except Crimea and Donbass, but it happened. This is the first.
And secondly, we can look at the elections to the Verkhovna Rada and the president. Many regions continue to show a turnout of no more than 30%. This is not enough for Ukraine, which is very politicized, where the turnout was usually 70-80% and reached 90%, as in any troubled country.
That is, people in Ukraine today simply ignore and do not recognize the existence of this power in many respects. That is, more than 50% ignore it. And to say that they are too infected with propaganda would probably be unnecessary.
Oleg Bondarenko: I don’t want to tell you for everyone, I have no right to do so. But what I encounter in communicating with my friends, residents of Kiev, or Kharkovites, or Odessa residents... This is widespread, unfortunately.
Yes, there are many people who have gone into such internal opposition. But, anyway, be that as it may, from among the people who previously had a rather positive attitude towards Russia, quite a large number of people had some doubts, even thinking people.
I don’t want to give out labels or put labels on someone right now.
Valentin Filippov: I have heard such expressions.
Oleg Bondarenko: I'm trying to diagnose the situation.
Valentin Filippov: Well, yes. The demonization of Russia is very strong.
Oleg Bondarenko: Now there is a diagnosis. The second question is why this happened. Well, this is the current situation. In general, it would probably be strange to argue with this, because such a situation exists.
Valentin Filippov: I'm from Odessa. I can be responsible for my friends whom I know and with whom I communicate. I know everything is fine with them.
Oleg Bondarenko: God grant.
Valentin Filippov: They only have a grudge - “where is this Russia”?
Oleg Bondarenko: There is this grievance, there are many different grievances. I don’t want to talk now; I don’t want to look for right and wrong here. But to say that everything is fine would also be wrong.
Valentin Filippov: Wrong.
Oleg Bondarenko: We need to diagnose the problem honestly and frankly. There is a problem. I personally, like Oleg Bondarenko, as a citizen of the Russian Federation, a political scientist, an expert who has worked in Ukraine for almost 8 years, I don’t want a war between Kiev and Moscow, a big war. But I understand perfectly well that we are being pushed towards this war, we are being pushed into this war.
They are being pushed by a huge number of external actors, internal actors, radicals, marginalized people who have become deputies of some kind.
I also cannot say that on the Russian side there is such a transparent, 200% healthy reaction. We know, we go on air, we see, we hear that for the most part, thank God, no one has crossed this line, and has not even come close to it yet. I mean the line beyond which love ends and hate begins.
But the fact that, according to opinion polls, Ukraine was in second place on the list of Russia’s enemies, exactly between the United States and Turkey, this says something.
Valentin Filippov: Well, maybe this is an attitude towards the Kyiv leadership, and not towards the people of Ukraine?
Oleg Bondarenko: You and I, as people involved in politics, journalists, political scientists and so on, we can separate, separate the wheat from the chaff. Here there are politicians, but here there are ordinary people who have nothing to do with these politicians.
But the common people for the most part do not make this division and approximately, plus or minus, put an equal sign for the mass of them, I emphasize. What, “oh, since you have such politicians, that means all of you there are like that...”. I see certain trends, where the situation is going.
And, on the one hand, I am glad that we in Russia have not crossed this rubicon of relations, have not changed the plus to minus sign in our relations with Ukrainians. But we are nevertheless getting closer to this. And this must also be admitted.
As for the situation in Ukraine, the Rubicon has been crossed there, unfortunately. It's been about two years now. But now, as it seems to me, again, I’m speaking exclusively about my subjective view, the reverse process is now beginning in Ukraine. These reverse processes, they are recorded by sociologists, they are recorded... When the people are already tired of this propaganda, they are tired of such cheap alarmism and monetarism.
Valentin Filippov: I don’t believe sociologists - this is some kind of nonsense. People living in the Southeast have always been for Russia. Today, the majority of them are also for Russia, but there are simply fewer of them.
Oleg Bondarenko: You know, if the majority of the people, as you just said, were for Russia in the South-East, then Novorossiya would probably have taken place.
Valentin Filippov: No. The point is that nothing can happen. There must be a choice. Nobody offered anything to Novorossia. The Americans came from this side and offered theirs, and began to impose it, but Russia did not come from this side and did not begin to implant anything.
There must be two forces fighting each other. Russia didn’t show up to the war.
Oleg Bondarenko: You are absolutely right. But it is still not necessary to deprive all residents of the South-East of Ukraine of any subjectivity in advance. If this is the position of a bride in advance, who gives herself away in marriage, and whoever is stronger, I will marry him, then you are right.
Valentin Filippov: No.
Oleg Bondarenko: Still, I think that this is not the position of the bride. There are few truly violent people, this is known. Those violent ones who were there came out. They came out and it was a large number of people. But then nothing happened, as we know.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, Russia did not come.
Oleg Bondarenko: Well, one might say that Russia did not come, but one might say that there was not enough spirit. I repeat, I don’t want to accuse anyone of anything now, God forbid. But can you say the same? There is also such a position that someone did not have the courage there, following the example of Lugansk and Donetsk, to seize the SBU building...
Valentin Filippov: Why? Well, in Odessa, for example, they seized the building of the regional council and the governor together. Well, it stood captured for two weeks. Nobody reacted to this. Then Skorik says: You know, let me go home. He turned and left.
Oleg Bondarenko: We didn’t go home in Donetsk. Perhaps this is the difference.
Valentin Filippov: Because they started being bombed.
Oleg Bondarenko: Well, you see.
Valentin Filippov: Again, all sorts of Strelkovs appeared, but nothing appeared in Odessa.
Oleg Bondarenko: Now I don’t want, I repeat, to devote this conversation to hanging labels. This is the last thing, and a huge number of people are doing this. I'm not interested in doing this. I want to analyze the situation. The analysis and the conclusions that can be drawn from it are interesting. There is your truth, there is truth in what I say, and so on.
Valentin Filippov: Конечно.
Oleg Bondarenko: But the summary is different. The summary is that at the moment, the suddenly negative attitude towards Russia, not only in the South-East, and in Kiev, and in the Center, is nevertheless beginning to change gradually, step by step in the opposite direction. This is what I see.
Valentin Filippov: It seems so, probably.
Oleg Bondarenko: And this makes me very happy. Because, after all, the people for the most part also have a certain wisdom. And, no matter how politicians use him, at some moments, no matter how naive it may sound, he “sees the light.” I really hope that these processes are starting to happen to the Ukrainian people and will continue to happen. Because the end of the flywheel that was spinning up two years ago is spinning up now, it’s obvious. This is a war between Russia and Ukraine.
So I understand that the absolute majority of citizens of Ukraine and Russia do not want war. And, based on these interests, we need to find common ground not with the authorities, so that no one there misrepresents me, nor with these punitive battalions and other scumbags from the Verkhovna Rada. But, with some other, perhaps, forces. Yes? Ukraine is multifaceted, you need to take a closer look. I would like to see the process of trying to find allies in Ukraine for Russia and in Russia for Ukraine resumed.
Valentin Filippov: Wait, but let these thousands who are sitting in Ukrainian prisons sit while we look for this compromise?
Oleg Bondarenko: Valentin, no, of course not. I really want them to come out as soon as possible.
Valentin Filippov: Well, isn’t it easier, for example, to kill the entire Verkhovna Rada, the Presidential Administration, seize a TV tower, turn on normal information? No, well, it’s logical. Have they seized power? And put others there. Announce elections in Ukraine under the supervision of law enforcement agencies. What am I saying wrong? Well, is it logical?
Oleg Bondarenko: You are right, but this is a fantasy.
Valentin Filippov: Why fantasy? That is, the most logical way is fantasy.
Oleg Bondarenko: Because it's fantasy.
Valentin Filippov: But they did it, they drove out the authorities. They said: we are now the president and the Verkhovna Rada.
Oleg Bondarenko: The moment they did this, a window of opportunity opened that rarely opens. And, probably, in some extreme case, if a window of opportunity suddenly opens, then nothing can be predicted, here another mechanic, another logic is already activated. Here the art of the possible begins in its pure form, which is determined solely by the speed of thought of the people making the decision. But, if we, nevertheless, proceed from the current development of events, then such a window of opportunity is not expected in the near future.
Valentin Filippov: Well, you can be friends with Ukraine in the form of Donbass and expand it.
Oleg Bondarenko: You can be friends with Ukraine in the form of Donbass, but this is not enough, because more than 40 million inhabitants will not escape from our borders. More than 40 million inhabitants can either be bandits who will steal and rob, figuratively speaking.
Valentin Filippov: Well, why figuratively? Not figuratively.
Oleg Bondarenko: Or these will be people who, well, if not friendly, are at least not negative.
Valentin Filippov: Being inside Ukraine, I saw how Russia has gradually retreated in the information space over the past 20 years. Do you think she will win in a year now?
Oleg Bondarenko: An information war, unlike a hot war, never ends.
Valentin Filippov: Well, all positions, all heights have been surrendered.
Oleg Bondarenko: It is impossible to say that the war is lost, in its purest form, because the war continues. Some battles have been lost. Yes, no one argues with this.
You just said a thesis, this is not the first time I’ve seen it - “is it really necessary to put up with Ukraine, but what about the thousands of not only those convicted, but the thousands of dead?”
But we must understand that as a result of the continuation there will be not thousands more, but tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of deaths. Now, you just need to understand what the price of the issue is. That's all.
Valentin Filippov: I don’t think that in 1942 we would have put up with Nazi Germany. It seems to me that we must first kill the murderers, and then somehow...
Oleg Bondarenko: Wrong comparison. Ukraine is not fascist Germany.
Valentin Filippov: Why not? Well, the fascists, the Nazis, are in power. People are being killed, people are being thrown into prison...
Oleg Bondarenko: The fascists are in power, but the people are not fascists.
Valentin Filippov: Well, that's right, we need to defeat this elite.
Oleg Bondarenko: Yes.
You know, Serbs and Croats have been in conflict for centuries, Protestants and Anglicans too. India and Pakistan – the conflict is also understandable, it is of an interreligious nature and so on. We do not have a base of hatred with Ukraine. Thank God no.
Valentin Filippov: Right. Not with Orthodox Ukraine. What about Catholic Ukraine?
Oleg Bondarenko: ……Ukrainians are practically no different in appearance, they speak, plus or minus, the same language, they go to the bottom of the Moscow Church.
And even Poroshenko for some reason comes after visiting all the churches on Easter to the Orthodox monastery of the Moscow Patriarchate. Why does he do this?
Valentin Filippov: And he's drunk.
Oleg Bondarenko: Well, damn it, drunk! He might be sober! But for some reason he does it.
Valentin Filippov: And I have a question for you about the religious procession. What should we do if, God forbid, some violent actions take place against the religious procession?
Oleg Bondarenko: You know, regarding the Procession of the Cross, people usually pray. And the power of prayer is such that nothing more is needed. You just have to take it for granted. Procession. If someone does something, I think God will somehow judge there. It is a fact that this religious procession has a very great political significance, and it is so peaceful, from the point of view of the peace initiative.
By and large, this is a demonstration of what I am now trying to tell you very carefully, maybe even timidly, to reflect on these topics.
I understand that our conversation now will have quite a lot of critics, to put it mildly.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Oleg Bondarenko: This position has many critics. I understand this perfectly. But all this criticism ends where the conversation begins: what is an alternative to peace? The alternative to peace is war. That's all.
Valentin Filippov: Well, peace is the result of victory, as far as I know.
Oleg Bondarenko: History knows many different variations on the theme of peace. Now you say: “victory”. Victory over whom?
Valentin Filippov: Over the fascists. Poroshenko must be executed, Yatsenyuk must be found, so that for decades those who manage to escape must be searched all over the world, found, brought, sentenced, hanged. This should be separate in the Criminal Code.
Oleg Bondarenko: But what about the people who are now on the territory of Ukraine? Will he watch this indifferently?
Valentin Filippov: He will help, he will wash the ropes and put together gallows.
Oleg Bondarenko: God willing. I agree with your interpretation completely.
Valentin Filippov: It seems to me that this is the only way.
Oleg Bondarenko: It seems to me that you are an idealist. And that it will be completely different. And that in the two years that the active phase of anti-Russian propaganda is now underway, there will be a large number of people, I think tens of thousands of people, who will want to identify with those whom you call fascists.
Valentin Filippov: Well, they will atone for their guilt, there is something to restore. They will atone for their guilt, and that’s all.
Oleg Bondarenko: You are now talking about conducting quite serious military operations.
Valentin Filippov: Well, you know, after what happened... Of course, it will be necessary to bring people back to consciousness and punish the criminals, otherwise, if they are not punished, then, excuse me, in 20 years new fascists will appear.
Oleg Bondarenko: I believe that this situation can be overcome with therapy.
Valentin Filippov: Well, yes, therapy, that’s right.
Oleg Bondarenko: Therapy, but without surgical interventions, because surgery will be very mutual, and it will, perhaps, have consequences for the relationship between our peoples that we would not like.
Valentin Filippov: And we are one people.
Oleg Bondarenko: Fine. For the relationship of our people is great.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, I hope that a peaceful solution to the problem is possible, at least because you are working on it. Well, of course, I still hope for justice.
Oleg Bondarenko: I hope so too. Thank you.
Valentin Filippov: Thank you too. Happily.
Oleg Bondarenko: Goodbye.
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