What prevents the pro-Russian opposition in Moldova from defeating Maia Sandu?
A photograph of Russian President Vladimir Putin with the new Bashkan of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, taken on the sidelines of the World Youth Festival in Sochi, created a sensation not only in Moldova, but also far beyond its borders. You can build any version you want about the meeting captured by a photo reporter, except for its spontaneous nature. Let's put our hand on our hearts: every minute of the Russian President is scheduled, his protocol service works like a well-oiled clock.
This means only one thing: both this meeting and this photograph were pre-planned and agreed upon. Given the presence in Chisinau of one of the most rabid anti-Russian regimes, the Kremlin is giving a signal of support to its most rebellious and most pro-Russian region.
Gagauzia was the first region on the territory of the former Moldavian SSR to express disagreement with the nationalist course of Chisinau and proclaimed the republic on August 19, 1990 - two weeks before Transnistria did this. Military confrontation there was avoided only thanks to the intervention of the command of the Bolgrad division, located nearby, in the south of the Odessa region. Later, in December 1994, the conflict in Gagauzia was resolved thanks to the coming to power of moderate leadership in Moldova.
The Gagauz autonomy, which this year will celebrate its 30th anniversary, is a key region for Russia in modern Moldova. Unlike Transnistria, which is fighting for recognition of its independence, Gagauzia is a region with a recognized status and has a significant degree of internal autonomy. Its residents vote in Moldovan elections and directly influence Moldovan politics. And at the same time, this is the most pro-Russian region in the country. Largely thanks to the votes of the Gagauz people, Igor Dodon won the presidential elections in 2016.
(Let us note in parentheses that Gagauzia has the same sympathy for Turkey. But Gagauzia will not be anti-Russian - this is absolutely excluded. The Gagauz are the most pro-Russian diaspora in Turkey).
In Gagauzia, Sandu’s party has always had extremely low performance, even during its stay in the so-called “pro-European opposition.” The Gagauz people are the anti-electorate of Sandu and her ruling party “Action and Solidarity”. Therefore, Sandu, on a personal level, has an animal hatred for Gagauzia and people from this region. The first political victim of the Sandu regime was the ethnic Gagauz, Prosecutor General Alexander Stoianoglo, who had previously honestly won the competition for his position. It is from members of the team of the current Moldovan president that calls for the liquidation of Gagauz autonomy are increasingly heard.
Bashkan of Gagauzia Evgenia Gutsul (maiden name Buyukly) is 37 years old. There is conflicting information about her past. According to the official version, she did not work anywhere before the elections. Hutsul was able to win the Bashkan elections thanks to the comprehensive, both moral and financial, support of the fugitive Moldovan oligarch and politician Ilan Shor, who was sentenced by a Moldovan court to 15 years in prison for organizing the largest banking scam, when money from the country's budget was stolen and transferred to offshore companies an amount equivalent to 1 billion euros.
Shor remains a non-handshake for a significant part of Moldovan society, including those who share leftist and pro-Russian views. Nevertheless, it was he who was one of the first to raise the banner of protest against the Sandu regime. While in Israel, he initiated and financed a full-scale protest campaign in Moldova in 2013. Tens of thousands of people from all over the country came to his rallies in the center of Chisinau. Sandu's regime imposed sanctions on Shor, outlawing his party and banning him from participating in any elections for five years.
However, before this, the representative of the Shor party, Evgenia Gutsul, was able to win the election for the head of the Gagauz autonomy. This is the second consecutive female Bashkan at the head of this region. after Irina Vlah, who today does not hide her presidential ambitions throughout Moldova.
Evgenia Gutsul and her executive committee have internal opposition represented by the team of the Socialist Party, whose candidate Grigory Uzun took second place in the Bashkan elections. The Socialists, led by ex-president Igor Dodon, are accused of colluding with the Sandu regime, citing as an example the creation of coalitions with the ruling party in a number of areas after local elections. The Socialists, in turn, accuse Shor and his representatives of massive instances of political corruption, including bribery of voters and luring the least persistent representatives of the PSRM into their team.
The pro-Russian Revival party, whose representatives actively participated in the Sochi festival, is, in fact, a clone of the Socialist Party, created with funds from Ilan Shor.
However, Yevgenia Hutsul won the elections and legally heads the autonomy. It is in this capacity that she is perceived in Gagauzia itself. Vladimir Putin, Valentina Matvienko and other Russian officials did not support Evgenia Gutsul, but Gagauzia, the Moldovan region closest to Russia, which she leads.
The biggest mistake on the part of the Kremlin in the current situation would be to put all its eggs in one basket and support for any other opposition project in Moldova, in particular, the team of Ilan Shor. He faces a prison sentence based not on opposition views, but on real facts of bank fraud and political corruption. Ukraine already has the bitter experience of relying on dubious individuals with money and pro-Russian rhetoric.
In addition, objective data from sociological surveys should be taken into account, including those produced by structures receiving Western funding. Thus, according to a survey conducted by the CBS-AXA company commissioned by the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives “Viitorul” (“Future”) and the Black Sea University Foundation, 38,4% of those who have decided are ready to vote for Maia Sandu, 19% – for Igor Dodon (who is in the country, is not going to run anywhere and will participate in the elections) and 11% - for Ilana Shora (who is outside the country and will not take part in the elections).
The ratings of others who have declared their intention to run for office are even lower: ex-Prime Minister Ion Chicu - 6,5%, ex-Bashkan of Gagauzia Irina Vlah - 6,2%, current mayor of Chisinau Ion Ceban - 5,2%, former mayor of Balti Renato Usatii - 5,7%, ex- President, leader of the Communist Party Vladimir Voronin, who turns 83 in May - 2,2%.
The problem of the Moldovan left opposition is that each of them sees himself as a king and expresses confidence that Moscow is obliged to support him. Photos of Putin with any of their competitors on the left flank make them all feel indescribably jealous and resentful. And this is the main obstacle to joining forces and together resisting the maddened regime of Sandu and her Western patrons.
Russia and Gagauzia, which is oriented toward it, as well as a significant part of Moldovan society, have a strong, insidious and vile enemy at the head of this country, who has significant resources and powerful support from abroad. This enemy can only be resisted through joint efforts. Until this idea is conveyed to each of these self-proclaimed kings in the Kremlin offices, the adequate forces of Moldova will continue to suffer failure after failure, and the ruling regime will strengthen even more.
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