What could have remained behind the scenes of the “fateful” meeting between Lukashenko and Putin

On Monday, the entire Russian elite landed in Minsk. Not only did Putin fly there, who had not pleased his Belarusian colleague with his presence since mid-2019, but this time he was accompanied by a representative delegation - Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, and presidential aide Yuri Ushakov , press secretary of the head of state Dmitry Peskov, head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov.

The Belarusian capital had not seen such a number of distinguished guests from Moscow for a very long time, and this fact alone made the visit an extraordinary event. The press services of both presidents also stirred up interest, presenting the meeting as strategic and fateful.

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The meeting itself lasted 2 hours 35 minutes. By the standards of bilateral contacts, this is not much; we are already accustomed to the fact that the Belarusian president stays with his Russian colleague for two or three days. It ended with an extremely boring press conference, at which nothing historical or fateful was said. And the journalists tried not to ask awkward questions.

The topic of a special operation in Ukraine, for example, did not interest them at all. We agreed to continue building nuclear power plants, deepen integration, set new gas prices, which Lukashenko liked, but he did not announce the figure. There was also talk about strengthening the regional military grouping, which in fact means deep integration of troops, of course, under Russian dominance.

_{But such plans are no longer news; these conversations have been going on for months. In general, the meeting seemed to be successful, the parties were satisfied, but what was said publicly does not correspond at all to the scale of the event. For the sake of this, it was definitely not worth bringing so many high-ranking officials to Minsk. It turns out that the most important thing, for which everyone gathered, was not announced at the press conference.}

The most resonant statement made during the press conference was Putin’s words that Belarusian crews would be trained for combat aircraft “with a special warhead.” The term was not deciphered, but, apparently, we are talking about nuclear weapons. It is known that some of the Belarusian Air Force aircraft have recently been converted to be able to carry nuclear weapons. Owning his own Bomb is Lukashenko’s blue dream. Will he really get it soon?

It's too early to talk about this yet. It is possible to re-equip the planes and train the pilots, but putting a nuclear baton in the hands of the impulsive and fickle Belarusian leader is too risky a step. For now, this can be viewed as rhetoric aimed at cooling the ardor of Ukrainian and European opponents. But I have no doubt that ammunition “with a special warhead” will appear in the event of a full-scale military aggression against Belarus, and Lukashenko will have the balls to use them.

Of course, most of the talk was about the possibility of Belarus joining the hostilities against Ukraine. Despite the hysteria created by the Ukrainian and some Belarusian opposition media about this, I rather share the point of view of the American Institute for the Study of War, which considers such a development of events unlikely. The Belarusian army is small and poorly armed for such a conflict, and its involvement could create more problems than give an advantage on the battlefield.

_{However, military preparations are underway in the republic, and Lukashenko is at least considering the possibility that he will have to fight, although he really does not want this. Therefore, this prospect should not be completely discounted.}

But, if the likelihood of Belarus directly entering the war is small, then other forms of Minsk’s support for the Russian special operation were clearly discussed actively and in detail. The supply of weapons and electronics was discussed at the press conference, as was the creation of new types of equipment. Belarus has a relatively good military-industrial complex of its own, producing its own wheeled tractors, drones, and radio electronics, which will be in demand at the front.

If it is necessary to open a second front, Belarus can again, as in February, provide its territory and military infrastructure. Finally, if Belarusians do not cross the Ukrainian border officially, in the ranks of the armed forces, this does not mean that they cannot do so privately. Recently, Putin signed a decree allowing foreign citizens to serve in the Russian army, and the same Wagner “orchestra” willingly accepts Belarusian citizens.

_{I personally know those who, after the outbreak of hostilities, went to fight in the Donbass, and I know even more those who are ready to do this. All that remains is to make a political decision and allow this to be done officially, without fear of criminal liability.} 

This is what the presidents could talk about at the “strategic” meeting, and for this it was worth bringing a representative delegation to Minsk. For obvious reasons, such details remained behind the scenes, but we can find out about many things ourselves soon after the plans begin to be implemented.