What's happening in Kazakhstan: Tokayev's New Course

Last Friday, Kazakhstan hosted a congress of the ruling Nur Otan party, which is now headed by the country’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The party itself is undergoing an internal crisis due to the mass exit of its rank and file members, but the very fact of transferring it into the hands of the head of the country finally concentrates power in his hands and ends the protracted transit. In this regard, the question arises: what kind of domestic and foreign policy will Elbasy’s successor lead in the near future.

It is noteworthy that the congress itself was held in the best traditions, but online, and Nursultan Nazarbayev spoke first, who confirmed his previous determination to hand over the ruling party to Tokayev. The second president, observing the agreement, did not criticize his predecessor, but emphasized the continuity of power and praised Elbasy for his success in state building.

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True, the party itself did not fare well, since Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke critically about its activities and questioned the achievements and those victorious reports that were voiced. Moreover, he noted that in six months he will say for sure whether he will continue to serve as party chairman, saying that he defends the principle of equidistance between the head of the country and all parties in principle.

Interesting changes also took place within the party following the results of the congress. Thus, Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter Dariga and one of his closest associates Bauyrzhan Baibek were never elected to the political council of Nur Otan. At the same time, the party leadership Erlan Karin, one of the curators of nationalist movements and organizations in the country, was not included, who now holds the important ideological position of Secretary of State.

_{It looks like for Tokayev this nur party is like a suitcase without a handle, especially if he wants to run for the next presidential term in two years. Therefore it is obvious that this year he will try to fuse this very unpopular “gift” from his predecessor, and has now already removed many current officials from the ranks of the leadership, replacing them with unknown entrepreneurs and provincial party functionaries.}

It is obvious from this that, as a result of bargaining, the ruling elite decided not to debunk the “cult of personality” in the spirit of the XNUMXth Congress of the CPSU, but to follow the Chinese path, while maintaining the aura of the infallibility of the supreme leader. Moreover, not all Elbasy’s relatives found themselves in disgrace. If Elbasy’s daughters and younger brother fled the country, and the fate of their assets is in big question, then the middle son-in-law Timur Kulibayev, on the contrary, has only risen to the top.

For many years, he was both the “gray eminence” in Kazakhstan and the most powerful oligarch in the country, as well as the holder of the family's main assets within the state and abroad. Now he acts as a kind of co-ruler of Tokayev, because he is taking over those companies that were previously owned by other members of the Nazarbayev family.

_{Therefore, the ruling family did not disappear completely, but there were changes in it, as a result of which some rose to the top, remaining surrounded by the president, while others went into the shadows. This does not mean at all that there will be no redistribution of property, despite the assurances of the president himself. This simply cannot be stopped, but for now Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is trying with all his might to temporarily maintain a certain status quo in order prevent a massive and immediate outflow of capital from the country, which will definitely begin sooner or later.}

So far he has limited himself to populist statements at a meeting with representatives of big business on January 21, obliging them to invest in the newly created “people's fund.” At the same time, the president suddenly noted that the main reason for the January events was precisely the acute social discontent in society with the unfair distribution of national income, “when 162 people own 50% of the country’s total wealth, and 50 percent of the population receive monthly incomes of less than 50 thousand tenge per person.” person ($115) or no more than $1300 per year.”

But despite this recognition, economic policy he still adheres to his previous course of appeasing foreign mining companies, primarily Western ones, and maintaining the previous favorable investment background for them. At the same time, he repeated all the proposals that were developed by the Supreme Economic Council last year under the leadership of the former head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Suma Chakrabarti.

In particular, we are talking about the final privatization of the assets of the Samruk Kazyna state fund, in which previously, by order of Nazarbayev, all state assets of strategic enterprises were concentrated. This step has long been lobbied by foreign investors and it is obvious that they will fall into the hands of the same Kazakh oligarchs and Western corporations.

That is, there is no talk of even partial nationalization or revision of enslaving subsoil use contracts and production sharing agreements with foreign companies. On the contrary, it is planned to further strengthen the economy’s raw material export model, which has already cracked and will certainly collapse in the future. In this regard, the state simply will not have the means to solve pressing social problems and fight poverty, which is fraught with new shocks.

_{And since there is no sign of improvement in the socio-economic sphere, Tokayev risks quickly absorbing all the negativity that the Nazarbayevs previously absorbed. The slowness in carrying out reforms is also dictated by the fact that the president simply cannot dismantle the political system overnight without his strong team and relies on the same Nazarbayev’s nominees.}

Tokayev does not and probably will not have authority comparable to that which Nazarbayev had in his best years. Therefore, in the fall of 2022, the second president can begin the formation of a new parliament, which will represent the interests not only of the president, as was the case under Nazarbayev, but of various groupings. Tokayev himself will most likely serve as a mediator between them. And this means some liberalization and permission to register parties of large capital.

In foreign policy, Tokayev, after receiving assistance from the CSTO in critical days, will lose the support of the West and drift towards rapprochement with Moscow and Beijing. Accordingly, the leadership of the Republic of Kazakhstan should expect future significant investments from there. The first signs of such a turn have already appeared in intensifying negotiations with representatives of the Chinese authorities, since meetings on cross-border trade have already taken place, and a meeting between the Chinese Ambassador and the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan took place.

Moreover, during the stay of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan in Beijing on the occasion of the opening of the Winter Olympics, a bilateral meeting with the leader of the Celestial Empire is planned. Tokayev is also expected to make a special visit to Moscow in mid-February, and much will depend on the negotiations held there.  Surely the question of the role that Kazakhstan will play as part of the anti-Russian Organization of Turkic States, created in opposition to the EAEU, will be determined.

_{Another indicator of the attitude of the ruling Kazakh elite towards Russia and integration with it will be further participation or non-participation of nationalists in the socio-political field of the country. If they continue to receive funding, patronage and support from the special services, and as we know the former leadership of the National Security Committee, suspected of conspiracy, formed gangs of pogromists from them, then then the statements of top officials may again turn out to be empty. If, on the contrary, odious “parties”, movements and media that inflate Russophobic sentiments are dissolved, then this will mean real progress in stopping the ongoing processes of de-Russification.}

In any case, the coming months will put everything in its place and show how sincere Tokayev is in his undertakings and assurances.