What is behind the deferment of Ukraine’s external debt

External debt deferment until 2024, which Ukraine received the day before – an exclusively political decision. Obviously, it will be extremely difficult to receive payments to creditors in 2024. But if you really look the facts in the eye, it will be impossible.

Economist Alexander Dudchak explains this in a material for PolitNavigator. In his opinion, the deferment of Ukraine’s external debt is a temporary measure and only delays the onset of an economic catastrophe.

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Ukraine has been in a permanent crisis since 2014. These are natural consequences of “European integration” and the severance of ties with Ukraine’s traditional Russian market, and the occupation of the territory by Western transnational corporations.

Since the 2014 coup d'etat, Ukraine has been burdened with so many debts that it is now impossible to escape from the tenacious clutches of creditors.

This is precisely why they loaded it - to transfer the management of the country to manual mode.

Ukraine has been effectively in default since 2015, when it refused to pay its sovereign debt on loans Ukraine took out from Russia in 2013. And for a long time it has been in a state of artificially maintaining the functioning of an organism called “the economy of Ukraine” by external forces.

The policy of deindustrialization and depopulation has been carried out by the Kyiv authorities since 2014 deliberately and consciously, regardless of who was president and prime minister.

During this time, there were 2,5 presidents and 4 prime ministers. Enterprises and entire industries were destroyed. First of all, high-tech and knowledge-intensive.

Thus, the aviation industry, space, shipbuilding, automotive industry, electronics, etc. fell victim to the Kyiv dictatorship. And now also the chemical industry and agriculture.

In such a situation, it is impossible to get rid of debts and develop the economy. If only because there is no such task to get rid of and develop.

And they were obliged to pay their debts – in one way or another. At the expense of the population, first of all. As long as this donor, the population of Ukraine, has financial blood, it will be pumped out. To pay off debts, they passed a law on the sale of land - something that now is the time to use. True, the reality has changed...

_{The announced sale of 17 million hectares of Ukrainian land is 1/3 of the entire territory, not only for agricultural purposes, but the entire territory remaining under the control of Kyiv as of the beginning of August 2022.}

How to pay off debts under these conditions?

Debts grew when Ukraine had metallurgy. In 2021, the country managed to increase the export of ferrous metals by 81,4% compared to 2020 - up to $13,96 billion. And the share of ferrous metals over the past year in total revenues from the export of goods was 20,46% compared to 15,61. 2020% in 40. But Azovstal alone accounts for XNUMX% of Ukraine’s metallurgy.

_{Who will believe that Ukraine can compensate for the loss of Mariupol metallurgical plants?}

Returning to deferred debts. Not all debt has been deferred yet. Eurobond holders who agreed to freeze payments account for 75% of Ukraine's external debt. $2024 billion were supposed to be paid by 5,8. But there is still 25% left...

On August 10, Ukravtodor and Ukrenergo managed to obtain consent to defer loan payments. Bidding is underway for Naftogaz. The deadline for creditors to approve deferred payments for Naftogaz was August 12. And the West has no desire to meet Naftogaz halfway.

Everyone understands everything: there is a high probability that in 2024 there will be no one to ask.

Ukraine is in an absolutely manual control mode. If Western countries (read London and Washington) want to put an end to the Ukraine project, a default will be declared immediately. If it is necessary for this territory to continue to play the role of an anti-Russian terrorist, a formal default will not be allowed.

Judging by the plans for the supply of weapons and the general policy of the West, there is a need in Ukraine as long as Ukraine itself exists, even if it is decreasing in size. And the plans of enterprises of the US military-industrial complex and some European countries are a long-term conflict for the sake of multi-billion dollar contracts for the supply of weapons, i.e. the war “until the last Ukrainian”, until the last territory, even the size of the Lviv region, will continue.

The question is “will the crisis intensify?” – is simply inappropriate. The vital activity of the body will be maintained in a smoldering mode. The standard of living is on the verge of physical existence. The middle class is finished off and turned into poor people. The poor become beggars. The beggars remain where they are and accept replenishment.