What's up with Erdogan's partner?
A new intrigue is swirling around Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile systems.
On December 20, the US State Department approved a possible contract for the sale of its Patriot PAC-3 anti-aircraft missile systems to Turkey for a total amount of $3,5 billion.
This deception was made against the backdrop of the already signed firm loan agreement on the supply of Russian S-400 Triumph air defense systems to Turkey in 2019. The volume of the contract is estimated at $2,5 billion, and we are talking about the deployment of four S-400 regiments around strategically important Turkish facilities in the fall of 2019.
And now, at the moment when Ankara is ready to pay part of the deal with Russia, sellers of American military iron knock on its door again.
The United States once again reminded Turkey that if it deploys the S-400 air defense system on its territory, it will lose not only the right to participate in the supply of the latest F-35 fighters. The Americans can completely ban the sale of weapons of their own production to Turkey, and also create additional troubles by introducing sanctions under the CAATSA (Countering Enemies of the States) law against individuals and legal entities involved in the S-400 deal.
The Yankees, in particular, fear that Russian intelligence will be able to obtain secret information about important components of the F-35, “sharpened” to overcome the air defense system using the S-400, the production of which was planned to be deployed in Turkey.
According to unofficial information received, Turkey is still showing interest in purchasing from the United States 4 Patriot PAC-3 batteries with a small number of missiles equal to a regimental ammunition load.
Moscow does not see a problem if Turkey, in addition to the S-400, also purchases American PAC-3, since these contracts are not interrelated, and one does not interfere with the other.
But the presence of two competing air defense systems among the Turks hinders the Americans. Why?
It's all about the presence/absence of “bookmarks” in the software for export weapons. American military equipment is designed in such a way that it does not hit its own. American fighters sold to different countries will not be able to attack each other in the event of a military conflict. Accordingly, American Patriot air defense systems cannot be used against them. The entire defense of the country in this situation becomes flawed.
According to representatives of Rostec, the software code in export versions of Russian air defense systems is open, which guarantees the defeat of any enemy’s air attack. Rostec guarantees that in the event of war or any other conflict, its products will not be remotely disabled or subject to remote administration.
This is a more than serious reason for Erdogan not to put all his eggs in one basket and have competing air defense systems in service.
However, the other day, the Bloomberg news agency hit the fan, distributing a statement that Ankara approached the American side with a proposal to quietly study the S-400 systems after delivering them to Turkey.
Thus, Erdogan allegedly sent a signal to America about the beginning of the normalization of relations and loyalty to allied principles within NATO.
A representative of the Turkish Foreign Ministry immediately disavowed Bloomberg’s statement, saying that the Americans had not received such a proposal from the leadership of his country.
At the moment it is difficult to say what is true and what is not. The details of the contract for the supply of S-400s to Turkey are known only to those who are supposed to know about it. It is a fact that Turkey will receive, along with the air defense system, complete documentation for the S-400. Let us not forget that Ankara, when concluding the agreement, set one of the conditions for the localization of production of part of the S-400 units on its territory.
Thus, it can be assumed that the transfer of materials about the S-400 to a third party is illegal, and the Turks will not risk allowing the Americans to “master” S-400 technology under the threat of losing promising production, and with it a certain degree of freedom.
This is not to mention the fundamental differences in the performance characteristics of the complexes, which play against the clear choice of “Patriot”.
So far, Bloomberg’s statement looks like an attempt to add foulbrood to the successfully developing process of military-technical cooperation between Russia and Turkey.
On the other hand, as competent analysts note, with the Turkish contract, not everything is as clear as it seemed until recently. The Turkish side may still back down. Everything will become completely clear when the full amount of money arrives in the accounts of Russian banks, Turkish crews undergo training in Russia, and the S-400s shipped to the Turks take their places on combat duty.
In the practice of the Russian arms trade, there are facts of failure of firm contracts, and even refunds for weapons already sold. Türkiye in general and Erdogan in particular are a partner with whom one must keep one’s ears open. For the rest, time will tell.
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