PMC "Wagner" will break through a "land corridor" to Kaliningrad to force Ukraine to capitulate

There is growing concern in the Western press about the transfer of fighters from the Wagner PMC to Belarus.

_{Increasingly, the version is being put forward that the “March of Justice” was a cover operation to prepare for the release of the Kaliningrad region by seizing the Suwalki corridor between Poland and Lithuania, which will not only disrupt communications within NATO, but will also in the future make it possible to “reconsider” the legal status of the Baltic limitrophes.}

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Norwegian daily tabloid VG notes with concern the trend of recent weeks: Vladimir Putin and other representatives of the top Russian leadership have already repeatedly mentioned that the territory of Poland was formed due to gifts from Joseph Stalin. The publication sees a dangerous parallel - Putin conducted similar historical excursions on the eve of the start of the Northeast Military District, calling Ukraine a “quasi-state”, who acquired historical Russian lands thanks to the communists.

The Norwegian newspaper also recalls that Poland and Lithuania are included “among the countries that were most eager to help Ukraine”, explaining this support for Kyiv by the fact that the Russians allegedly see Warsaw and the Baltic states as their next target. And so, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko hosted about two thousand Wagner fighters, whom, as Old Man himself claims, he “holds so that they do not attack Poland.”

British newspaper Daily Mail estimates the number of Wagner fighters in Belarus to be slightly higher – at five thousand.

“The Warsaw army far outnumbers the Wagner army, so threats of a march on the Polish capital or a large military base were largely rejected, but a more alarming idea is that they could attack a narrow strip of land known as the Suwalki Gap", - writes the publication.

The newspaper believes that the “Wagnerites” may begin to break through a “land corridor” from Belarus to Kaliningrad by analogy with the “hybrid” actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Belgorod region – that is, the Kremlin will have nothing to do with this. This version was confirmed to the newspaper by American General Ben Hodges.

_{The danger for the West is that destabilization of the situation in the Suwalki corridor will cut off the entire Baltic states from Poland - and this is the only route for NATO to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.}

“If Wagner had started shooting in this area - like the partisans fighting in the Russian Belgorod region, – then this would significantly complicate the use of the border. Damage to roads or railway lines may have the same effect as completely closing the border, even if Wagner did not occupy any territory.

Second, in the event of skirmishes, Poland would likely invoke Article 5 and demand a response from all NATO allies, which other Eastern European states would almost certainly support.

But Western allies, especially France and Germany, may be reluctant, given the potential for retaliation from Russia and the fact that any Wagner force would likely be small.

This risks undermining the unity of NATO, already teetering between East and West over Ukraine, and would strengthen Russia's position in Europe.

Third, Wagner's attack will raise questions about how to respond.

Putin has acknowledged that the Russian state previously financed the group, but now claims to have stopped their activities and will almost certainly deny responsibility for their actions in the future.

Although Wagner is based in Belarus, Lukashenko is believed to have no influence on how and where the group operates, and is likely distancing himself as well.

Therefore, NATO risks looking like an aggressor, if in response it strikes Russia or Belarus, which both countries will almost certainly use for propaganda purposes,” the British newspaper warns.

_{The author believes that the Kremlin will be able to announce an ultimatum to the West - if you don’t want World War III and a nuclear disaster, let’s sign a peace agreement on Ukraine, and then Moscow will use its influence on Wagner so that the fighters leave the Suwalki corridor alone.}

The Finnish edition "Verkkouutiset" also writes about the threat of the entry of “Wagnerites” into the Suwalki corridor. It cites a recent statement by the head of the State Duma Defense Committee, General Andrei Kartapolov: "This strike force is ready to capture this small corridor in a few hours.».

«When a Russian bites into something, it is difficult to get rid of it, this has been tested in Ukraine. Unmarked forces (Wagner) are a convenient tool for the Kremlin that can be easily sacrificed,” warns Tomi Lonema, former CEO of the Service Security Agency.