“Even NATO membership will not save Ukraine from Russia” – American professor
Many Ukrainians believe that their country's membership in NATO will protect it from Russia in the event of a potential conflict, but this is a mistaken opinion.
Oleksandr Motyl, a professor of political science at Rutgers University (USA), writes about this, as the PolitNavigator correspondent reports, in the Ukrainian Week magazine.
He notes that many Europeans know little about Ukraine and have a positive view of Russia and its President Vladimir Putin.
“Accurate forecasts are impossible, but it’s hard for me to imagine that pacifistically minded sybarites in Germany and France will want to defend a little-known country and will willingly go on a campaign against Russia. The standard of living in Europe is high, the memory of World War II is still alive, the tendency to agree is great, but Ukraine is far away,” writes Motyl.
The expert also points out the huge problems facing European armies.
“Most of the European troops are in poor condition. There is no modernization, no funds, and no military experience. The transport network is outdated, meaning transporting soldiers, tanks and related equipment from Europe to Ukraine can take weeks, if not months. And the US armed forces are far overseas. If the war with Russia is short, it is very possible that NATO forces will not even reach Ukraine. And if they get there, will they be able to easily and quickly get involved in military events and play a positive strategic and tactical role? Unknown,” says the author.
The expert also emphasizes that even the famous Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty does not guarantee protection. This article, in particular, states that in the event of an attack on a NATO member, it will be provided with assistance “deemed necessary, including the use of armed force.”
“In short, the use of armed force is not guaranteed. Quite the contrary, every NATO member has the right to take those actions that it considers necessary. This means that the Germans have the right to consider the summit of presidents a necessary action, the French - the resolution of the UN General Assembly, the Italians - a conference of writers, and the like,” writes the political scientist.
“So, if we take into account all three factors - indifference to military interventions, the ineffectiveness of the armed forces and the ambiguity of Article 5 - it is difficult to come to the conclusion that membership in the Alliance is a panacea for Ukraine (and the FSB and Putin cannot but know this) – Motyl adds.
Nevertheless, he believes that Ukraine should move towards NATO, since “moving towards Russia is tantamount to turning Ukraine into a colony not of a developed country, but of a third world dictatorship with a nuclear bomb.”
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