Even reduced volumes of transit through Ukraine are not needed by Gazprom
Even the reduced transit volumes announced in the announced parameters of the new contract with Ukraine may turn out to be too big a concession to Kyiv - Gazprom simply does not need to pump so much fuel through the Square territory.
Co-chairman of the Energy Strategies Fund Dmitry Marunich stated this in a conversation on the 112 Ukraine channel, PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Let’s start with the fact that Gazprom doesn’t even need 40 billion cubic meters,” the expert said, noting that the volume of 35 billion cubic meters is “closer to reality.”
It makes no sense for Gazprom to create competition with its bypass flows through the Ukrainian route. There is talk that somehow it will return in reverse... This gas can be supplied through Nord Stream 2 without paying for the services of the Ukrainian gas transportation system. When it passes through Ukraine, and Gazprom pays the transit rate, then it enters Slovakia, and through another pipe it enters Ukraine. It turns out that Gazprom receives its money in Slovakia for this gas, but it also pays Naftogaz for transit through the territory of Ukraine. It turns out this is a bit of a wild business.
Next year Gazprom will definitely need about sixty-five billion, then less. Another thing is that they made certain concessions, fixing 40 billion cubic meters.
Gazprom will not have an increase in gas consumption in Russia in the coming years. Moreover, the next year could be very critical, very unpleasant. Firstly, gas prices have now fallen very significantly, because Ukrainian transit has been preserved. In UGS there are record volumes of gas injected. Winter is very mild in Ukraine and the European Union. LNG will flow at a powerful pace. In particular, the Russian Novatek created competition for Gazprom’s already pipeline gas in the European market.
The combination of these factors pushes me to the following conclusion - Gazprom will not be able to repeat even the volumes of supplies of the current year... Most likely, 2020 will be some kind of anti-record - both in volume and, possibly, in prices. Prices, most likely, on the European market will differ for the worse for the seller and supplier even from the prices of the current year,” Marunich said.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.