Default will not prevent the IMF from financing the war in Ukraine, and Russia will lose $7 billion
Moscow - Kyiv, April 13 (PolitNavigator, Mikhail Stamm) - According to the Financial Times, calculations of assistance to Ukraine from the IMF do not provide for the return of $3 billion to Russia this year. In addition, Ukrainian companies do not repay debts to Sberbank for another $4 billion. Moreover, even if Ukraine defaults, the IMF will finance its expenses, including military ones, because Kyiv “is pursuing the right policy.”
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The IMF in its documents uses the streamlined expression “debt operations” and estimates the effect of them for Kiev this year at $5,2 billion. “It is clear that the IMF assumes that the Russian $3 billion in bonds is included in those 5,2 billion, which are the result of “debt transactions.” However, it is not entirely clear from the documents whether a write-off of the principal amount of the debt is implied, and if so, in what volumes, said former IMF official Charles Blitzer. “It would be helpful to successful negotiations with creditors if the IMF made public the full list of assumptions it made in its debt sustainability analysis.”
In addition to direct budgetary losses, Moscow will also face quasi-commercial losses from writing off the debts of Ukrainian companies. Thus, at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, the head of Sberbank, German Gref, said that through this state bank alone, about $4 billion had been issued to Ukrainian borrowers, which included both the debt of the Ukrainian government and the debts of private entities. “Basically, of course, these are enterprises: small, medium-sized businesses and large corporations... Unfortunately, it must be said that more than 50% of the portfolios are not serviced,” Gref explained.
The IMF leadership has not yet given up on promises of assistance to Ukraine, reports NG. “We are already hearing critics here in Washington who question the wisdom of the IMF's investment in such an uncertain situation,” IMF Deputy Chief David Lipton said last Tuesday. But, he said, “there is only one answer: the IMF should provide support in a crisis if the country has the right policies.” The reform program for Ukraine proposed by the IMF has the support of the Ukrainian people, Lipton is sure.
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