Ukraine is expected to default on June 30
The first deadline on Ukrainian debt will come on June 15, reminds RBC. If negotiations on the restructuring of the Ukrainian debt prove fruitless, the IMF may refuse Ukraine the next loan tranche of $1,7 billion. The next payment on the external debt is scheduled for June 20, when Ukraine must transfer to Russia interest in the amount of $75 million on bonds with a controversial status. If Kyiv decides not to pay, default will occur in ten days.
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The redemption of “Russian” Eurobonds for $3 billion is scheduled for December 20, 2015. Before this, Ukraine will need to repay $500 million in bonds on September 23. It is the September repayment that is the “real hard deadline” for restructuring negotiations, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Vadim Khramov.
The market estimates the probability of Ukraine defaulting within one year at 57%. Alternatively, Bloomberg calculates the probability of a sovereign default within a year. According to Bloomberg's model, Ukraine's probability of default within a year is estimated to be higher than that of Greece.
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