Is it heading towards war? – what do experts in Kyiv think?
The situation around Donbass is heating up. The truce is effectively over, the Minsk agreements are dead. There are forecasts about a new round of military confrontation.
PolitNavigator asked Kyiv experts how the situation will develop?
Tatyana Montyan, lawyer, is currently on a trip to Donbass:
“I don’t believe that anyone will go for a real, serious aggravation. Ukraine has no resources. I think they are just doing PR for some purpose. But no one will go on the offensive. They are not suicides - it will be another cauldron. Everyone knows the state of our valiant, “the strongest in Europe” army now.
As a lawyer, I talked with our defector Anatoly Taranenko, he told me a lot of interesting things. The army is a total mess, drunkenness, drug addiction, commanders have given up on everything, hazing and God knows what. In general, there is no one to fight. But he really wanted his story to be published in video format, so that they wouldn’t think that I was repeating something from his words. That’s why I’m preparing a video with him.”
Political scientist Alexander Bulavin:
“We are seeing an aggravation. There were several cases of Ukrainian military personnel being blown up by mines; in Donetsk there was an attempt to kill one of the DPR military leaders. But all this is not due to the fact that someone has any serious intentions. It's more of a demonstration.
It is clear that Ukraine will not and is not able to carry out an attack on Donbass. There are no guarantees of victory. I see in everything that is happening the desire of the Ukrainian leadership to demonstrate to the West the firmness of its intentions - that there is no relaxation, etc.
All this is happening against the backdrop of statements that the Minsk agreements are not working and proposals to include the United States and Poland in the Normandy format. Therefore, all this is nothing more than a demonstration. Therefore, this aggravation will end in nothing.”
Political scientist Alexander Semchenko:
“Our authorities need aggravation. They, of course, can say that it is “Russian terrorist mercenaries” who are conducting shelling, etc. But, judging by the reports that are published, what is happening is beneficial to the authorities and specific commanders of combat units, who thus hide their non-combat losses. They began to be punished for non-combat losses, and they began to present them as combat losses.
Some such situations have already surfaced. The latest such situation involved three servicemen who were blown up by an explosive device. But even Zelensky realized that something was wrong here, and he gave instructions to find out what kind of mines they were, the “tank barrier,” and why it was not put on the map.
Perhaps along the way they will figure out that units during rotation resell minefield maps to each other - they didn’t pay - they give incomplete maps. Maybe they will deal with drunkenness, drug addiction, and looting. But the latest case of the death of three servicemen raised questions even among the country’s leadership.”
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