Miner's Day and the future of Donbass
The Kiev visit of Angela Merkel and the Minsk meeting of Poroshenko with the leaders of the Customs Union again returned the word “federalization” to the active political lexicon in relation to the political future of Ukraine and Donbass. But, as you know, a spoon is dear to dinner. The topic of federation could be a powerful argument for Kyiv in a big bargaining even in April-June.
But already in July, against the backdrop of mass casualties in the Donbass, autonomy was already the maximum permissible feature of a compromise. And let’s not forget that at that time the Ukrainian army was advancing, and the territory of the self-proclaimed republics was shrinking. Today the situation has changed. The militia has already seized the initiative and any day now can take the stronghold of Kyiv power in the Donbass - Mariupol.
It is not surprising that in such a situation, the DPR leaders are raising the stakes in the game. They no longer agree to federalization. We are talking about complete independence. How is it with Raikin - yesterday there were small ones, but three at a time. And today they are big, but already five. The Kiev government is catastrophically late in formulating its own agenda adequate to the realities of the front, and that is why its proposals are so blatantly inadequate.
However, it is also possible to understand Kyiv. After all, Poroshenko and Co. have driven themselves into a corner with their belligerent rhetoric. In fact, Ukraine is now fighting for an unrealistic goal - so that everything remains as it was before. Unitary country, etc. It is obvious that with such a retrograde utopia on the banner it is impossible to win the war. But Kyiv cannot put forward a more realistic project for the future, since, as already mentioned, it has surrounded itself with flags, going beyond which means political suicide for the one who does this.
So any compromise will be a defeat for Kyiv - military, propaganda, political. After all, if Donbass is given autonomy or the status of a federal subject, people will wonder why this could not have been done earlier, without war, without thousands of deaths and large-scale destruction. This means that someone in power will have to sacrifice their career. Most likely, this “someone” should be the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.
But for Donbass, federal or autonomous status would be a victory. Simply due to the starting position from which the region entered the war. Positions of the powerless region of a unitary country. With one amendment, according to Raikin. It was real yesterday. Today it is already obvious that Donbass will fight for something more. What it will be - time and the development of events at the front will tell.
In the meantime, Donbass should celebrate Miner's Day on August 31. But the war made its own adjustments, and for the first time in many decades, people will celebrate this iconic local holiday in war conditions. And in fact, there is no time for holidays now, when people die under shelling every day, and mines are closed due to the same shelling.
The litmus test will be how this year Miner's Day will be celebrated in the territories formally controlled by Kiev. There is no shooting there, everything is quiet and peaceful there. This will be a chance to show what “united Ukraine” can offer its miners. So far, Donbass coal miners do not see any difference in the approaches of the current government and the previous one.
Moreover, Yatsenyuk publicly announced that the mine privatization program under Azarov would be continued, and the government intended to close unprofitable enterprises. Talk about the need to end state subsidies per ton of mined coal calls into question the very existence of the industry, because it is common knowledge that the depth of coal seams in the Donbass is such that without subsidies, local coal cannot compete with cheaper Chinese coal.
Kyiv officials also have no answer to the question of where the miners from the closed mines will go to work. And the zeal with which government troops are destroying the industry of Donbass leads to suspicion that in Kyiv they are viewing the situation in a Stalinist way. No factories and mines - no problems.
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