Denis Denisov: It’s more likely that the DPR will go on a counter-offensive than be crushed
Denis Denisov, director of the Ukrainian branch of the Institute of CIS Countries
A campaign was launched in the Ukrainian media to discredit the leaders of the uprising in Donbass - Maidan supporters even unearthed such “compromising evidence” as Pavel Gubarev’s work as Santa Claus at New Year’s matinees.
Probably, such “revelations” should distract the public from the question of why people with a much more dubious past came to power as a result of the “revolution” - for example, oligarchs accused of bloody raider takeovers.
Their attempts to put together punitive detachments against Donbass fail - the militants are unable to provide significant assistance to the army, and the process in the South-East takes on the characteristics of irreversibility.
The Ukrainian authorities now do not have the resources to suppress resistance even in the base points of the Donetsk region - Slavyansk, Mariupol, Kramatorsk. Rather, the situation will turn out in such a way that the Donetsk Republic will launch a counter-offensive, rather than being suppressed by the Ukrainian army.
The people who find themselves at the head of the newly proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics are mostly newcomers. But their main difference from the leaders of the Maidan is that for Donbass they are their own, close in spirit, ideology, language, culture. Now they have a great deal of trust from the population and a chance to justify it.
The Bolsheviks in 1917 also did not have any experience in administrative and civil service. Nevertheless, after some time they were able (albeit through great problems) to build such a superstate as the Soviet Union.
How is the “elite” changing in Kyiv? As a rule, these are the same people who (sometimes peacefully, sometimes not) either resign or come to new positions, and as the years of Ukraine’s independence have shown, the whole country suffers from this.
We see new faces in Donbass. They have the desire and opportunity to work for the benefit of the newly formed states. If these are patriots of Donbass, everything will work out for them.
The main thing now is to reach an agreement with representatives of big business. There are many export-oriented enterprises in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Even in the current conditions, various transactions occur every day - cooperation continues. If there is an agreement in principle that revenues are now paid to the treasuries of these republics, then it is quite possible to build a new financial system in the shortest possible time.
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Yes, Rinat Akhmetov said that the unrecognized status of Donbass could harm supplies abroad. However, there are some countries that can lend a helping hand to the newly proclaimed republics and smooth out the negative effects, including on the economy. Russia could support these republics not only morally, but also financially, at least in the first months of independence.
As for Akhmetov, his position is completely clear: his main goal is to preserve his business. He, in my opinion, understands that if the independence of Novorossiya is formalized, this entity will be in the geopolitical orbit of Russia and therefore there is a threat for it that Russian oligarchs will act to absorb its assets. On the other hand, all his statements regarding the possibility of creating a regional police, decentralization of power, etc. are aimed at putting pressure on the Kyiv government, so that the business wing of this government does not have a desire to try to absorb his business.
For the oligarchs of Novorossiya, the main “headache” now is finding the power that could guarantee the preservation of their assets. It seems to me that in this situation, only the active position of the Russian Federation in exploring this topic can win them over to the side of the rebellious citizens.
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