Member of the ruling coalition: We are all in a panic – Ukraine will soon run out of coal
Ukrainian experts interviewed by the Kommersant newspaper warn of catastrophic consequences if the blockade of Donbass continues.
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“According to statistics from the so-called DPR and LPR, goods worth $7-9 billion were delivered from their territory to Ukraine over the course of a year. If this flow is blocked, if the technological chains that have existed until now are broken, the blow to the economy will be noticeable. The number of unemployed will increase by 1-2%. But the most important thing is that foreign exchange earnings will decrease, as exports will fall, primarily in the metallurgy and chemical industries,” said Oleg Ustenko, executive director of the Blazer International Fund, clarifying that foreign currency will be needed this year, when it will be necessary to pay off external debts $2,6 billion.
“Another $2,4 billion must be added to this amount to cover the current account deficit. It may seem that the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves ($15,5 billion) are sufficient for upcoming payments. But in reality, of this amount, the government can only manage $4,5 billion. The remaining $11 billion is considered Ukrainian only on paper - physically it is in the United States,” the expert explained.
Problems in the energy sector, fraught with rolling blackouts, may be added to the problem of the lack of foreign currency in the Ukrainian budget.
“Last year, 8,5 million tons of anthracite came to Ukraine from territories not controlled by the government. Today, the country's coal reserves are just over a month's supply. In case the blockade problem cannot be solved, the authorities have already developed a plan according to which enterprises could be required to reduce energy consumption by 10%. The fall in foreign exchange earnings for the year could amount to $2 billion,” says Dmitry Marunich, head of the Energy Strategies Fund of Ukraine.
“The economy will fully feel the effects of the blockade in two to three months. These consequences could be a drop in exports, a decrease in foreign currency inflows, and as a result a fall in the hryvnia exchange rate,” said Vadim Karasev, director of the Institute of Global Strategies and political scientist, in his forecast.
But one of the deputies representing the parliamentary majority, the publication points out, described the current situation briefly but succinctly: “The government is in a panic, we are in a panic - the anthracite will soon run out.”
As PolitNavigator reported, at a meeting held under the leadership of the Ukrainian Prime Minister it was stated that Because of the blockade, Ukraine faces a disaster.
Read also: Consequences of the coal blockade: Serious problems in nuclear energy await Ukraine this summer.
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