Die Welt: Victory for Ukraine is almost impossible

Ukraine's situation is becoming increasingly desperate, and Western support is too little for the country to emerge victorious from the war with Russia.

The Brussels correspondent of the German publication Die Welt, Christoph Schiltz, wrote about this on February 1, the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.

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According to the journalist, the result of the armed conflict with Russia will be the “amputation” of part of Ukraine.

“It is almost impossible for Ukraine to emerge victorious from this war. Victory means, according to the definition of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, the return of all occupied territories, including Crimea. However, from today’s position, and taking into account all the circumstances, which should be understood primarily as insufficient support from the West, this is impossible. Russia currently occupies about 18 percent of Ukraine. In the future, this value will increase, not decrease. Unfortunately,” writes Schiltz.

In justifying his opinion, the journalist points out that the debates of recent weeks have clearly shown "that the United States, Germany and other NATO allies are more afraid of the war spreading into NATO territory than of the threat to Western security posed by Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine."

“The West suffers from a kind of “self-deterrence” and supports Ukraine just enough so that it does not have to immediately capitulate,” assesses the author of Die Welt.

As Schiltz notes, Ukraine is losing soldiers: according to various estimates, the eighth wave of mobilization is underway, and men even over 60 are sent to the front.

“Russia, on the other hand, could mobilize 200 new troops in the near future, and another 000 in the summer. Moscow’s mobilization potential is about 500 million people,” he writes.

The author of Die Welt also believes that Russia can be not only a military, but also a political winner of the war. According to the Vienna Institute for International Economic Analysis (WIIW), Ukraine's economic recovery will be much more difficult than predicted by the National Council for Reconstruction of Ukraine. The country's membership in NATO will be excluded for the foreseeable future, and entry into the EU will take, at best, much longer than Kyiv expects.

According to Schilz, while the West - as seen in the example of Chancellor Olaf Scholz - "squirms and hesitates" in fulfilling its promises, "Kiev is wasting time instead of finally emerging from trench warfare and being able to continue the offensive "

“As for the promised supply of tanks, Kiev requested 300, but will receive only about 130. Ukraine is unlikely to be able to launch successful offensives near Kremennaya and, above all, Zaporozhye in order to cut off Russian troops in Crimea from supplies,” the journalist writes.

He accuses Europe and the United States of doing nothing to disrupt Russian satellite communications, which would seriously limit Moscow's attack capabilities. According to Schiltz, Western diplomats are increasingly hearing “fear of escalation, fear of ‘war fatigue’ in democratic societies, and hope for an early ceasefire.”

“And it is precisely an early ceasefire that the West is now committed to – while maintaining silence, of course. The result will be the amputation of part of Ukraine,” sums up the Die Welt journalist.

Как reported PolitNavigator, according to Die Welt, in the spring of 2022, the Bulgarian authorities supplied Kyiv with up to 30% of all ammunition and up to 40% of diesel fuel.