Dynastic change of power in Turkmenistan is an attempt to escape the influence of Russia and China

It seems that following Kazakhstan, after Nazarbayev’s final departure from politics, a change of leadership is also expected in Turkmenistan, where the Central Election Commission unexpectedly announced early elections in March of this year, and the permanent president wished to retire. But unlike Nur-Sultan (Tselinograd), in Ashgabat the throne will remain in the hands of the family, and continuity will be ensured through the implementation of the dynastic principle of inheritance of power.

Back on February 11, information leaked that Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov had hinted about his imminent departure and “the need to give way to the young,” and Already on Monday, February 14, events began to develop rapidly. Thus, the Central Commission for Elections and Referendums of Turkmenistan has set the date for holding early presidential elections on March 12. And immediately there was a command for the three existing parties: Democratic, Agrarian and Industrialists to nominate their candidates.

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As expected, the ruling Democratic Party on the same Monday nominated the son of the current head of the country, Serdar Berdimuhamedov, as a presidential candidate, who is a priori already considered the favorite in the upcoming race. There is no doubt that he will be elected overwhelmingly in the elections and become the next president, succeeding his father.

Of course, this process is dressed in a modern veneer of respectability, through the so-called presidential elections, and The successful Azerbaijani option has already been taken as a basis, when the country has been led for many years by Ilham Aliyev, the son of the former party leader Heydar Aliyev. But this does not change the situation, and thus Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, handing over the reins of power to his son Serdar, actually builds a monarchical system, believing that this is the only way to retain capital and existing control levers.

As is known, his predecessor Saparmurad Niyazov did not have time to prepare a similar successor for himself and died suddenly. After this, there were serious conflicts between different groups in power, about which very little is known, and this battle was then won by Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, being Deputy Prime Minister. After 15 years of rule, it was discovered that the head of all Turkmen had health problems and he himself decided not to repeat the mistake of the first president, transferring power to the only reliable person.

Interestingly, the the President has appointed his son to the post of Deputy Prime Minister since July 2021 on economic and banking issues, as well as on working with international financial organizations. It was a pre-planned castling, designed precisely to use the chair of the Deputy Prime Minister as a springboard for ascending to the presidential throne.

There is nothing to fear inside the country yet. As we see, the ruling Democratic Party of Turkmenistan did not disappoint, There has never been a legal opposition, just as there is no split in the elite. But all this is illusory and may not work in case of premature death or hospitalization of a super referee, as happened, for example, in neighboring Uzbekistan in 2017 after the sudden death of Islam Karimov.

_{Therefore, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov is in a hurry, and, first of all, because of the rapidly changing geopolitical situation, as the country finds itself between the influence of the West and Turkey, on the one hand, and the demands of China and Iran, on the other. Maintaining the previous neutral status quo is becoming more and more difficult. The failure of the Nazarbayev clan, which was the conductor of the construction of the pan-Turkic project in Central Asia, showed the danger and fragility of this path. Therefore, the head of the Turkmens is hedging his bets and holding these elections in order to maximally strengthen his power.}

At the same time, like Elbasy in 2019, he does not leave completely, having given presidential powers to another son, even if only his only son, but certainly remains as the most important figure and super-arbiter. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov will continue to govern as long as his health allows him through a loved one, the country, and at the same time will maintain guarantees of the inviolability of the regime and control the elite.

Another important reason for forcing elections, from my point of view, is the Turkmen ruler's fear of the possibility that Moscow and Beijing, having joined forces, are objectively interested in a gradual change or serious adjustment of the current elites in Central Asia and in the post-Soviet space in general. After all, real political integration processes may soon reach this remote former Soviet republic.

_{Moreover, after the withdrawal of the Americans from Afghanistan, who lobbied for the redirection of gas and energy flows through the Caspian Sea to Turkey and south through Pakistan to India, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov’s whole leg at the table of his “multi-vector policy” broke. Now it is no longer possible to play with one goal in favor of Great Britain and the USA.}

And the first omens of the worst sounded back in the summer, when The main Turkmen gas field, Galkynysh, has become a rock of contention between Beijing and Ankara. As is known, Recep Erdogan planned to fill his gas pipeline (TANAP) with the required volumes, through which gas would flow from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and, in the future, Kazakhstan. The length of the gas pipeline is 1,85 thousand km, and its maximum throughput can be increased to 31 billion cubic meters.

Eventually Ashgabat decided to play along with China and refused to Turkey, transferring this field to companies from the Middle Kingdom. But in relation to Moscow last September, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov decided to show an indecent gesture. The point is that on September 13, the Azerbaijani state company SOCAR and the Swiss-Dutch company Vitol Group came to an agreement on the transportation of hydrocarbons starting in October of this year. SOCAR plans to transport Turkmen oil through the Caspian Sea to Baku, and then it will go through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BDT) oil pipeline.

That is, all this was done bypassing the Russian pipeline, through which Turkmen hydrocarbons previously went to the world market. As a result of such a separate agreement with Ashgabat, the total volumes of oil transportation along the Russian route through the port of Novorossiysk decreased by 50%, namely from 160 to 80 million tons per month.

Turkish pipeline diagram

All this was done within the framework of a single geopolitical and geostrategic project of Turkic integration, and an example of this is the latest agreement between Ankara, Baku and Ashgabat on the supply of more than one million tons of Turkmen oil per year bypassing Russian routes. As is known, Türkiye is increasingly reorienting the information and transport flows of the former Soviet Central Asian republics towards itself, and the connection of Turkmenistan to the Organization of Turkic States was only a matter of the near future.

Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov and Recep Erdogan

But all these cards were confused by the January events in Kazakhstan, a key country on which plans for the development of the “Great Turan” under the auspices of the neo-Ottomanists in Central Asia were based. And apparently Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov decided to quickly win back, again declaring his commitment to neutrality, which must be understood as a fat cross on Turkmenistan’s plans for participation in the Organization of Turkic States.

To do this, he announced in parliament on Friday the pompous philosophical concept of international relations “Dialogue is a guarantee of peace.”

“As you know, I called this philosophy: “Dialogue is a guarantee of peace.” In cooperation with the UN, for the well-being of all humanity, we will continue to implement the Millennium Goals. At the same time, issues of ensuring a peaceful and free life for people will always come first,” the Turkmen leader emphasized.

Beneath the vague phrases lies the desire of the head of all Turkmens to walk between the streams and not get wet, or between two fires, remaining in power with his royal family in order to continue skimming the cream from the sale of energy resources. These interests are understandable, but it seems that Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov and his family did not understand that the geopolitical situation in the region and the world had changed so much so that it is no longer possible to be neutral and observe events from the outside.

All the more so no one has forgotten the “soft” Russophobic policy of the Turkmen authorities, and how the de-Russification of society and the ousting of the Russian language were carried out. Therefore, sooner or later there may be a demand for this double-dealing. Moreover, both neighboring Iran and China are not interested in strengthening Turkish influence.

_{In this regard, Ashgabat must realize, despite elections and castlings, that it is possible to follow the path of Tashkent, which became an observer in the EAEU and is successfully developing relations with Moscow and Beijing, Is it possible to share the fate of the Nazarbayev family. And there is no third option here...}