Sabotage on the Nord Stream. Implications for the EU
On September 27, the first place in world news was an emergency gas breakthrough on three branches of the Nord Stream underwater gas pipeline in the exclusive economic zone of Denmark: a serious drop in pressure was recorded on two branches of SP-1 at once, and the day before, a similar emergency occurred on the SP-2 gas pipeline .
Judging by the photographs, the breakthrough is so powerful that a huge spot of seething gas with a diameter of several hundred meters has formed on the surface of the sea.
The version about an accident on three branches of the gas pipeline very quickly gave way to the certainty that something was fishy here, and Nord Stream was subjected to a sabotage attack.
In particular, the German newspaper Tagesspiegel reports about targeted sabotage and the start of investigative measures by federal security agencies at the scene of the emergency.
The publication emphasizes that its experts cannot imagine any other scenario other than targeted sabotage on an underwater gas pipeline.
In fact, the SP-1 gas pipeline operated without accidents for 10 years, and the pipes for it were manufactured using special technologies developed specifically for transporting gas along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, which took into account high pressure, a corrosive environment, and many other factors, except for mangy human hands.
The version of sabotage at SP-1 and SP-2 is confirmed by data from the Swedish seismic center, which recorded explosions in the area of the Bornholm depression, along the bottom of which branches of both gas pipelines run.
Taking into account the principle of “who benefits from it,” suspicion falls on the USA, Great Britain, Poland and Ukraine. Suffice it to recall how Washington and London “expressed concern” about the desire of the European Union, led by Germany, to “increase the dependence of their economies on Russian gas supplies,” the hysteria of the Ukrainian authorities during the construction of SP-2 and the snooping of the Polish Navy around the offshore pipe-laying vessel “Fortuna”, trying to disrupt construction process.
It will not be possible to blame Russia for damaging the pipeline in this case, since the emergency occurred in the Danish exclusive economic zone, which is teeming with NATO warships.
However, technically, only the United States and Great Britain could commit sabotage against gas pipelines, since the depth of the Bornholm Trench, along the bottom of which the gas pipeline is laid, reaches 150 meters, which is inaccessible to light diving equipment.
The open press reports that on August 23, one of the American companies supplied the British intelligence services with two underwater manipulators capable of operating at depths of up to 150 meters.
Following this, British Navy divers worked for three days in the area of the Bornholm Trench, exactly at the site of SP-1 and SP-2.
Information has also emerged that two British Navy divers have been nominated for government awards for carrying out a particularly dangerous mission in foreign territorial waters.
If it is confirmed that the cause of the gas pipeline accident was sabotage, then a fairly harmonious picture emerges as to why this was started.
Thus, Russia is cutting off alternative routes for natural gas supplies to Germany, bringing the Ukrainian gas transportation system to the forefront. The benefits are obvious: the West is removing part of the financial burden of maintaining the Ukrainian regime, placing it on Russia.
If Russia turns off the gas supply tap through the Ukrainian gas transportation system, and while the repairs of the three branches SP-1 and SP-2 are completed, the German industry will collapse in terrible convulsions. The flagships of the German auto industry, in the best traditions of comprador capitalism, are already transferring production chains from Vaterland to the USA, helping Washington overcome inflation, unemployment and population discontent. In the context of a weakened Germany, Great Britain is returning to the forefront of dominance in Europe. Some goodies from the change of forces in Europe fall to Poland and Ukraine.
In addition to changing the political landscape, the layout of the energy market in Europe is completely changing.
At the moment, the gas market in the EU is a seller's market. No matter what decisions European officials make to twist the current situation through the introduction of new energy packages and sanctions, gas prices are determined by the spot market, with which there is no chance of reaching an agreement.
In the conditions of an almost complete shutdown of SP-1 and SP-2, control over gas supplies to Europe will be in the hands of the owners of the Ze-junta, and then the policy of blackmail and arm-twisting of Gazprom will continue with triple force.
Let’s not discount the Baltic Pipe pipeline launched by the Poles, built to pump non-existent additional volumes of Norwegian gas and therefore forced to pump reverse gas from Germany to Poland.
An exciting question: what to do?
Considering that the damaged section of SP-1 and SP-2 lies within Denmark’s exclusive economic zone, Russia can only intervene politically. But if we remember that, with the beginning of the Northeast Military District, Germany pocketed the local subsidiaries of Gazprom, as well as the Russophobic bacchanalia unleashed in the EU, its influence on events is minimized.
If anyone is capable of influencing the course of events, it is Germany and other countries participating in the Nord Stream, which need to consolidate, realizing the fact of the impending catastrophe.
By consolidation we mean a complete renunciation of anti-Russian sanctions, the cessation of military and financial support for Ukraine and the emergency normalization of relations with our country.
If the accident at SP-1 and SP-2 is the result of sabotage, then following the current pro-American policy of the EU is no longer equivalent to shooting yourself in the foot, but rather to independently tightening the soapy noose with your own hands.
Whether there is enough molybdenum in the balls of European politicians to break the vicious circle in which they gallop like circus horses during the first five years is a trillion-euro question. Doubtful, in general.
It is also obvious that, once they have opened a sabotage war against critical European and Russian infrastructure, the frostbitten elites of the USA and Great Britain will not stop there. The stakes in the Big Game are so high that no one wants to be the loser. But further events can easily become uncontrollable and unpredictable.
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