The sabotage in Machulishchi has been exposed. What to expect from an angry Lukashenko

On the tenth day after the attempted sabotage at the military airfield in Machulishchi, the Belarusian leadership finally broke the long pause and commented on what happened. And Lukashenko did it personally. After that, news feeds again rained down like from a cornucopia. The KGB of Belarus opened a criminal case, the captured saboteur was shown on state television, and those involved in his capture received state awards.

Usually such prolonged pauses are not good for business. In information wars, it is better not to give the initiative to the enemy. But this case is one of the exceptions. During ten days of state silence, the leader of the group of former Belarusian security forces BYPOL, who went over to the opposition side, Alexander Azarov, who took responsibility for the incident, exposed himself to ridicule several times, changing his version of what happened. The entourage was added by Azarov’s competitors in the Zmagar Serpentarium, who were already openly making fun of him even in the biased opposition media.

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_{Now the version voiced by Lukashenko looks the most logical and plausible - from what has been said about the attack on Machulishchi these days. There were no traces of any “partisans” from the Peramoga plan. The direct perpetrator turned out to be a saboteur, recruited by the SBU back in 2014 and well trained; 20 of his accomplices were also detained, whom he immediately surrendered; the rest managed to escape abroad.}

I didn’t initially believe in the BYPOL “partisans” version. This structure is now mostly virtual and exists to legend the activities of Ukrainian and Western intelligence services in Belarus, as well as to collect grants and donations for the needs of the opposition. If Azarov really had high-quality saboteurs who were capable of successfully testing the reliability of the security of a military airfield for more than one day and landing a drone directly on an extremely expensive plane, we would already be living in another country. But BYPOL was virtually inactive for more than a year, periodically telling tales about hundreds of thousands of “partisans” in the Peramoga plan and publishing false information, the authorship of which could well have belonged to the same foreign intelligence services.

If Azarov and his people really were behind the ultra-brazen attempt at a terrorist attack, it would have been in their interests to tell everything as it happened from the very beginning, and not to dodge, coming up with one fake after another. Most likely, the real Ukrainian organizers keep Azarov on a starvation ration of information, rightly believing that his surroundings are swarming with agents of the Belarusian special services, and there is also little trust in Azarov himself, who at one time was on the honor roll in the Belarusian Main Directorate for Combating Organized Crime and Crime.

Of course, now both the Ukrainian side, represented by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Mikhail Podolyak, and the Belarusian opposition are trying in every possible way to deny Ukraine’s involvement in the incident in Machulishchi, but Lukashenko turned out to be more convincing. His emotions also speak in favor of the fact that the Belarusian president was sincere. Yes, Lukashenko is a hot-tempered person and sometimes has a loose tongue, but in relation to his Ukrainian colleague he tried to be diplomatic even when relations between the states had long been in ruins.

_{Just a week ago, he called Zelensky a “not bad person, but very inexperienced” and called for negotiating with the Ukrainian military without preconditions. Now the recent “not a bad person” was called a “nit” three times. The emotional reaction is understandable. The Belarusian president has been challenged.}

Lukashenko’s entire policy in recent years has been aimed at establishing undivided control over the situation in the country. And when this goal was, one might say, achieved, a saboteur suddenly appeared with two drones and demonstrably humiliated the Belarusian security forces a few kilometers from Minsk.

Now you won’t envy a saboteur. In May last year, amendments were made to the Belarusian Criminal Code to allow the death penalty to be imposed for attempting to commit an act of terrorism as part of an organized group. The fact of an attempted terrorist attack is obvious. Having an organized group of more than 20 people is the same. Until now, people in Belarus have not been executed for crimes that had political overtones. But this case may be the first. Firstly, the criminal is a stranger. Not a Belarusian citizen, but a foreign saboteur. Secondly, Lukashenko is unlikely to forgive such public humiliation of the Belarusian army.

_{Another consequence of the sabotage in Machulishchi will be another round of cleansing. Impolite people from law enforcement agencies have already begun to come to all sorts of shooters and paintball players. I remember that shortly before 2020, this environment was fertile for the cultivation of all kinds of extremists. The sensational case of the “White Legion” (which turned out to be not as mythical as opposition figures said and is now fighting with might and main in Ukraine) was the loudest, but not the only example. After the failure of the rebellion, they became quiet and did not show signs of political activity, and they were not particularly touched. Apparently, now they will take on them too.}

As for Belarus joining the military campaign against Ukraine, it will not happen. At least for now. Lukashenko also said this again. He can make harsh and bellicose speeches, but he categorically does not want to actually fight.