“It is obvious to all sensible people: Ukraine is preparing for war”
The exchange of prisoners that took place on the eve of the New Year demonstrated that people from all regions of Ukraine are fighting the nationalist regime in Kyiv. Kyiv is preparing to begin active hostilities in the Donbass in the second half of January. About this reviewer "PolitNavigator" Valentin Filippov said the adviser to the head of the DPR Alexander Kazakov.
Subscribe to PolitNavigator news at Telegram, Facebook, Classmates or In contact with
Valentin Filippov: Alexander, hello. Happy New Year after all...
Alexander Kazakov: Thank you. In fact, what makes me happy about the new year is that the previous one is over, and I’m not a mystic, but the centenary of the October Revolution somehow bothered me.
Valentin Filippov: On the eve of the holidays there was a large exchange of prisoners, Ukraine again screwed up something. Among those released - real militias, people from Donbass - there are twenty percent, do I understand correctly? Tell me, why is there always talk about the conflict between Donbass and Ukraine, they say that “Kyiv should start a direct dialogue with Donbass,” or something else... It seems to me that the whole of Ukraine is at war with Kiev, probably?
Alexander Kazakov: Yes, if you look from this side, then yes. In connection with the exchange, I have already noted the very sound remarks of some experts, that during the exchange they exchanged citizens of Ukraine for citizens of Ukraine. Which confirms the fact that the war is civil, and not any with an external enemy.
But if you look at it from the perspective you propose, then yes, of course, we have political prisoners on our lists from all over Ukraine, absolutely. And there really are much fewer militias there. It is a well-known fact that we have many political prisoners on our lists.
And we hand over mostly prisoners of war; we have one or two people on our lists who were accused of espionage, sabotage, against the republic, and they were also handed over. And so, basically, all the military personnel who were captured on the battlefield with weapons in their hands.
Valentin Filippov: I recently saw sociology. In Ukraine, 62% are against the war in Donbass, against the policies of Kyiv. Is it not possible to assume that this 62% is the exchange fund that Ukraine will continue to use? That is, you are not afraid that they will bring you another twenty million hostages and prisoners, claiming that they are “saboteurs, Putin’s agents.” Will you collect enough Ukrainian military prisoners to exchange it all?
Alexander Kazakov: It’s just a matter of proportion, we’ll change one for a thousand. But if you look at this situation without humor, then... every joke has a grain of humor, as they say... We are seriously considering this situation, but not in the form of hostages, which Kiev will capture and exchange with us, but, for example, in the form of refugees, and , refugees, perhaps even economic ones.
Valentin Filippov: Well, I understand that your economy is real, but in Ukraine they will beg for it.
Alexander Kazakov: In fact, there is at least one more economic aspect here. It falls into the category of basic parameters that must be taken into account in any assessment.
In Ukraine now, and Kyiv itself admits this, the process of deindustrialization of the country is underway. They say: “We don’t need this industry, it’s old...”. They are undergoing a process of deindustrialization, while we are doing the opposite. The republic has declared that it will be an industrial republic, and we are restoring enterprises, mines, and so on. These are completely opposite processes.
Valentin Filippov: In all previous years in Ukraine, the concept of “post-industrial era” was pronounced with aspiration. These were whole strategies. They say: “Now, we will close all these factories, and here we will have a park, we will walk along it.”
Alexander Kazakov: A very specific perception of the post-industrial economy. That is, it is necessary to liquidate the entire industrial economy.
Valentin Filippov: Yes. “Why are we drawn to Russia? Because no one needs these factories here. Let us close these factories that no one needs, and we will immediately find ourselves in Europe, because nothing will attract us to Russia anymore.”
Alexander Kazakov: I'll tell you one thing. Those people who prepared modern Bandera Ukraine in Kyiv, they communicated with the wrong people. Well, for example, and this is now officially known, they are being advised by representatives of the Baltic states, the Baltic countries. And among other things, they talked about how wonderfully they had transitioned to a post-industrial status. A simple example, since I was there at that time and saw it. Let's say, let's take Latvia. Latvia was one of the most industrial republics of the Soviet Union. There was such high-tech that was not found anywhere else in the Union. The Alpha plant produced space technologies, the Kommunar plant produced satellite... It was all very cool, radio engineering, electronics and so on...
Valentin Filippov: VEF receiver
Alexander Kazakov: VEF, yes, Radiola, Spidola... well, this, in fact, was what was for the consumer, and there were serious industries related to space and the defense industry.
So this is how they transitioned into the post-industrial era. That means they first closed all the factories, now most of them are shopping centers or warehouses. Recently they showed how they were breaking down the walls of the Radiotekhnika plant because they didn’t know what to do with it, but it was just producing this very radio equipment for ordinary residents of the Soviet Union.
But the most important thing is that later consultants from Latvia told future Banderaites that after they liquidated all industry, the European Union appeared and said: “So, guys, we also don’t need your agriculture.” When the Latvians asked: “Excuse me, but what will we have left then? We destroyed industry, all that was left was agriculture...” They say, “No, no, no. Everything will be fine. We don’t need your products in our markets. Therefore…” – and here’s attention! - “...we will pay money to each land owner for the fact that he will not grow anything there.”
That is, if, for example, a farmer takes his land out of agricultural production and declares it meadows where horses graze, he was paid, God forbid, almost 200-250 euros per month per hectare so that he would not do anything there. When they told this to the Ukrainians, the future Banderaites, they said: “So this is happiness, this is finally communism. We are not doing anything... and there were one and a half to two million of them, and we are over thirty... What kind of money will Europe pay us so that they don’t take our wheat there...”
Valentin Filippov: And if our factories do not emit smoke, and we are paid according to the Kyoto Protocol for every cubic meter of smoke not emitted... well, how can we rise.
Alexander Kazakov: I think that at the basis of these delusional decisions of Kyiv there is a significant fault of unreliable and incorrectly interpreted information. The same Latvians and Estonians still offer, this is a real story, they come to Kyiv and say: “You don’t know what to do with the residents of Donbass? We'll tell you. The same thing we did to the Russians in 91. We declared them non-citizens. They are Latvian and Estonian non-citizens. Their status is spelled “non-citizen” in one word. And they issue non-civilian passports, of a different color. And when, for example, in Russia in the 2000s, Putin declared to Latvians or Estonians “You are discriminating against our compatriots” - “They are not your compatriots. They are our “non-citizens”. They are now offering the same thing to Kyiv, and periodically this idea appears in the public space “What to do with this Donbass?”
Valentin Filippov: This idea has been around for as long as I can remember. Then they said, “Do you want to punch me in the face?” - “Okay, that’s it, I’ll keep quiet.” But now this idea somehow does not work.
Alexander Kazakov: No, why? Now to punch them in the face – these are Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, let's have some bloodthirsty judgments then. Where are our Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo cities closer to the Dnieper? I don't understand how long this can drag on. Well, it drags on too long, drags on, drags on... Should there be an end to all this? Everyone says “Peace to Donbass.” What is the world without victory?
Alexander Kazakov: What will be considered a Victory in Donbass? Because everyone in Donbass says “We won’t agree without Victory Day.” Question: “What will be considered a Victory?” What will the residents who have been tormented and suffering for three and a half years agree with, what do they themselves recognize as Victory?
I will offer three options. I can’t speak for sociology, although I can lie. It's just sociology that we don't publish. One option, as if the most obvious, is the restoration of the territorial integrity of the Donetsk People’s Republic...
Valentin Filippov: Within the region
Alexander Kazakov: I remind you that de jure the territory of the proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic is the territory where the referendum took place. The referendum took place throughout the entire territory of the former Donetsk region, and this is the entire territory. That is, the restoration of territorial integrity, the withdrawal, of course, of the aggressor’s troops beyond the borders of the region, and from there they do not reach a single city. Neither to Slavyansk, nor to Mariupol, nor, especially, to Donetsk, and the fixation of a new border there. A very large number of residents of the Donetsk People's Republic will consider this a Victory, and they will be ready to celebrate this day as the second Victory Day after May 9th.
But not all. Not a large, but a smaller, part of the residents of the DPR are ready to consider it Victory when the anti-human Bandera regime is eliminated in Kyiv. This does not mean that they are ready to support our expansion into Ukraine. But even if the Donetsk Republic remains within its borders as long as this black bastard sits on the other side in Kyiv, people will not have a feeling of victory. Because in fact, the war will remain permanent. As long as these people are sitting on the other side, the war will not end.
Therefore, common sense and historical logic suggest that it is necessary, as in 45, to destroy the Nazis in their lair. In this case, we will agree that the lair is in Kyiv, and not in Washington.
But, in fact, people with strategic thinking understand perfectly well that even the restoration of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics within their borders and the comprehensive strengthening of the border and even recognition from the Russian Federation and those countries in the world that will treat this with understanding - and so on , and so on, the war will only be postponed anyway.
Without victory, peace is impossible. If we are all forced to stop resisting and stop fighting, then we will cover this war, like a constantly stinging wound, with a rag so that it is not visible. The war will resume in a day, in two, in a month, in a year, in ten. And it will be even more terrible because Ukraine was not ready for this war. Neither the army, nor the state, nor the people. They refused to shoot, it was necessary to release the criminals so that they could start shooting at civilians, because the Ukrainian army soldiers refused to do this. And they will be ready for the next war, for the next iteration.
They will have people like the Wehrmacht raised these little Nazis, trained them to strangle dogs, tear off cats’ heads. They will educate these people. They will have weapons - they were not ready for weapons either. Why have they been asking for weapons for the third year? They don't have it. And they will have it. And the war here on this same land will be ten times more terrible.
Valentin Filippov: And why on this same earth? Ukraine, by and large, is at war with Russia, what is stopping it... Why is it necessary to take Donetsk? You can take Belgorod, Bryansk, why not?
Alexander Kazakov: Well, you're right...
Valentin Filippov: Moreover, if Putin is a “universal evil”, if Russia is a “terrorist country and a universal outcast” that does not allow anyone to live around it, and “Ukraine would have prospered long ago if Russia had not committed meanness after meanness.” What’s stopping you from seizing pregnant women somewhere in Budenovsk and demanding that Putin resign...
Alexander Kazakov: Just not in Budenovsk, but in Belgorod.
There is one problem here, which can be seen by looking at the map. If the dill... that's exactly them, not the Ukrainians, but these Banderaites... if they try to organize a march on Belgorod and Voronezh, I know who will hit them in the rear. We. They won't be able to get around us from any direction. Neither to Crimea, nor to the northern provinces in relation to us, nor, especially, to those that are behind our back. They cannot bypass us and move towards Russia, they must first destroy Donbass. If they try to get around him, we will hit them in the rear, and we know that they will not find it hard. That’s why I say that this war will be here next time, right here. There are scoundrels sitting there, but not fools.
Valentin Filippov: Well, okay, we somehow started chatting, and I asked: “Are we going to somehow move to the Dnieper this year?” Again, I repeat, I can’t imagine how people will tolerate this, this time.
And secondly, you talked about the economy. So here it is. This blockade... selling coal through Russia... Yes, I know that we are increasing the export of coal and the export of metal, somehow this is all through South Ossetia.
Excuse me, but Novorossiysk is already suffocating. I understand that Novorossiysk transships more cargo than all 14 Ukrainian ports combined... But Odessa is needed, it has a deep-water port with all the capacities... There are three ports there. How is Russia going to develop further if it doesn’t get Odessa, and a corridor to it, and then, excuse me, Transnistria is suffocating under the blockade, it needs to be unblocked.
No matter what clever things they say about Crimea... “Oh, we’ll build a bridge... Oh, here, like, we have enough water.” Yes, there is enough water, potable. And in northern Crimea? And Kherson, again, is actually both our people and our land. And Nikolaev - there are shipyards!
Alexander Kazakov: Well, yes. Which apparently closed this fall.
Valentin Filippov: So it needs to be opened. They are needed on the Black Sea. Why are we driving built boats from somewhere across the Bosphorus? We have a shipyard in Nikolaev.
Alexander Kazakov: Well, let's try to answer seriously and responsibly. No waving checkers.
And everyone is in their own place, that is, without trying to decide for other people.
This means, look, in relation to the territories to the west of the DPR, two subjects from the eastern side are interested in these territories. The first subject is Donetsk, because its territory is there. And the territory, let us recall at least the Donetsk-Krivoy Rog Republic, which was at least economically justified like no other state in the world. And this is a little wider.
And the second entity that is interested in these territories is Russia, including for the reasons that you just described. And in fact, if the problem of Ukraine is not solved, then American missile launchers will stand on the border of the Voronezh region.
Nobody doubts this. But I propose to separate these two subjects. As for the Donetsk People's Republic, we currently do not have political instruments in our hands to reformat the territory to the west of us. Because we are not subjects of international law yet. We don't have political instruments.
What tools do we have? We have a tool, first of all, a military one, and Ukraine knows what it is, it has already encountered it, plus an economic one. Because even during the blockade already...
You say there “...South Ossetia,” but, in fact, Zakharchenko is telling the truth, and Timofeev, by the way, confirmed that more than 50 countries of the world interact with the DPR. Just in very special special ways. But losing one or two days is not a problem.
So, military instruments - one, economic instruments - two, this is what we have in our hands, the hands of the Donetsk People's Republic.
In the hands of the Russian Federation, in the hands of Russia, these same tools are a thousand times more powerful, a thousand times. At the same time, economic instruments are much more variable than ours. That is, the border with Ukraine can be closed for some goods, but opened for others. That is, to manipulate the Ukrainian economy by closing/opening the border, through customs duties, stopping supplies or stopping purchases, as was the case with salt, and so on.
And most importantly, what we don’t have is the political instrument that Russia has. Today Russia is solving a much larger problem compared to the Donetsk People's Republic. For Donetsk, the problem is to survive, restore territorial integrity, provide first a decent and then a high standard of living for our citizens and develop normally. Because the restoration of territorial integrity implies, for a second, another runway in Kramatorsk and another port in Mariupol. We won't have any problems crossing the Crimean Bridge.
Valentin Filippov: The port there, in my opinion, has already completely silted up, and it will need such reconstruction that I don’t know...
Alexander Kazakov: It’s still cheaper than making the same port in Novoazovsk.
Valentin Filippov: There is not enough depth in Novoazovsk.
Alexander Kazakov: Especially. So, Russia’s tasks, compared to the Donetsk People’s Republic, are radically more complex and higher. Because Russia today is engaged, and is a key player, in reorganizing the world, for a second. That is, it creates various groups of influence and pressure, where the participants in these groups are states and even groups of states. In order to move from a unipolar world to a more equitable world order.
Against the background of this task, the Donetsk People's Republic..., of course, takes its place, it definitely takes its place, because here we have a hot spot, we have a war going on. That is, there were two such points, but now there is actually only one left, because in Syria, the fire seems to be dying out there.
Precisely due to the fact that there is a hot spot and an open military conflict here, of course the Donetsk Republic occupies a place in solving Russia’s global problems. But the number of other parameters is so large that, for example, in Donetsk we often cannot even calculate them, and as for the residents of the Donetsk People’s Republic, they do not want to count it. And they have the right not to want it.
Valentin Filippov: No, well, there are tactical tasks, and there are strategic ones. Building a multipolar world instead of a unipolar one is a strategic task. And there are tactical tasks. You know, you can build a multipolar world wonderfully, but then it turns out that no one really needs it. By that time, the population of Odessa can be replaced and everyone can be taught to grow rapeseed.
Alexander Kazakov: No, stop, let’s rewind the film a little back. I agree with the formulation of the question that there are strategic tasks, and there are, as it were, local ones.
But, but... we just need to pose the question differently. Is Ukraine present in solving the strategic tasks that Russia has set for itself or not? Not just present, but in one of the central places.
Valentin Filippov: How can she not be present?
Alexander Kazakov: It is present in one of the central places because without returning Ukraine to a normal, healthy state and establishing interaction, at least with all its neighbors, without tearing Ukraine away from the American tit, Russia’s strategic plan will not take place.
Because in its underbelly there will be those same missiles and also an army that will be fed, trained, and armed. Therefore, the strategic task that Russia sets for itself directly depends on solving the problem of Ukraine. Not the Donetsk People's Republic, our problem has been solved, but Ukraine.
In fact, the key question now is different. Over the past few months... this December aggravation, a serious aggravation... it is obvious to all sensible people that the Ukrainian side is preparing for war. That is, more precisely, to the next campaign. They have already lost two, they are preparing for the next one.
This is operational intelligence information, this is information from our volunteer assistants on the other side, and this is almost the entire population. I once joked, but this is not a joke, we know more about the Ukrainian Armed Forces and punitive battalions than they know about themselves.
The first is intelligence information. Second. Conclusion from this information. Namely, the concentration of significant fuel reserves at certain points on the demarcation line. Supplies exceeding the current needs of the Ukrainian army and punitive battalions. Significantly higher. Restoring railway tracks and even bringing working branches to places where they are not needed for the economy.
Plus the deployment of military field hospitals on the other side. We know for three, perhaps there are already more. The clinic was converted into one, people were kicked out of there, more or less similar administrative buildings. Medicines of a very specific range are imported. This all suggests that they are not going to defend themselves there; this is not necessary for defense.
When we inflict serious damage on them, I remember in the south in May they got it very badly, there were several hundred dead on that side... so they transported and smeared this pancake all over Ukraine. In Odessa there... In Odessa they write that the boards arrived... They were smeared all over Ukraine. You don't need hospitals for this.
Therefore, the first thing is intelligence information. The second is political logic. Because the political situation in Kyiv, being at a dead end, is reaching this dead end more and more. To resolve this situation, Poroshenko must find a non-standard and perpendicular way out. This way out for him is war, a military campaign.
Moreover, this exit is two-way at once. Firstly, he diverts people’s attention, and secondly, he thinks that he is giving a gift to the Americans, because we have elections, everyone. And during the election campaign in Russia, a military campaign suddenly begins, in which they will somehow try to drag Russia into.
That is, this is a move that is politically normal and natural for him. Well, besides, we cannot ignore the opinion of our opponents, and such a thing periodically pops up in the public space as their experts assess the chances of Ukraine... they openly say: they have two windows through which it is most convenient to solve the problem of Donbass. The first window is Putin's election campaign, the second window is the World Cup. Because during the World Cup, Russian tanks most likely will not go to Ukraine.
I’ll just remind you that information about the correspondence between Klitschko and Tyagnibok was leaked to the public – either on the 18th or 19th of February 2014. In correspondence, one says to the other: “Everything must be done quickly, before February 23rd, otherwise nothing will work out.” They made it in time, and the Olympics in Sochi ended on February 23rd. That is, the experts themselves on the other side of the enemy assess these windows as promising and possible for solving the Donbass problem.
Plus the third, no, fourth factor and a very serious one is the weather. It's raining in Donetsk today. But for Christmas and, especially, for Epiphany, our meteorologists promise frost and snow.
Valentin Filippov: That is, they won’t get stuck
Alexander Kazakov: Yes, at the end of December we drove past our training ground and saw tank tracks. They passed, in principle, along the surface, but only one tank, the next one was already stuck. We evaluate this weather too. Therefore, based on all this, the optimal start of the military campaign on the part of Ukraine is the second half of January.
Valentin Filippov: If it freezes
Alexander Kazakov: Yes, depending on the weather.
Valentin Filippov: Well, God grant that you don’t make mistakes, that they finally begin and that a decision is made...
Alexander Kazakov: What are you talking about? May God grant that full-scale hostilities begin?
Valentin Filippov: Yes, full-scale hostilities have begun. Let's all go.
Alexander Kazakov: These are hundreds, and then thousands of dead.
Valentin Filippov: Well, yes, but it won’t be any other way. You know, in 91 we already entrusted children with...
Alexander Kazakov: No, no, not like that, I don’t even agree to talk about it
Valentin Filippov: Sasha, now boys who are twenty years old are dying at the front. These are our children. It was we who decided to disperse peacefully in 91. And what? And they passed it on to the children. Well, so, let's pass it on to our grandchildren? Well, maybe we can crush the reptile after all?
Alexander Kazakov: Agree. But, if we use the “God willing” formula, then I am ready to use this formula in only one version. “God grant that they fall apart there, crumble, disappear...”
Valentin Filippov: No, that doesn't happen. Nothing happens by itself.
Alexander Kazakov: There is no need to ask God for war.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, we won't.
Alexander Kazakov: He himself will pour it so that it doesn’t seem like enough. For our sins.
Valentin Filippov: OK. On this positive note, I want to say thank you and once again Happy New Year, and I really wish Donbass Victory.
Alexander Kazakov: Oh, how we wish ourselves Victory...
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.